比特币 (BTC) 再次上涨，目前距离 2024 年 3 月创下的历史高点 73,780.07 美元已经很近了。这是另一轮上涨的开始吗？或者只是以昨天的急剧回落结束的快速跳跃？

那些多年交易比特币的人都知道，加密货币的价格很容易出现巨大波动。

Bitcoin (BTC -3.22%) is once again on the move, and the cryptocurrency is now within shouting distance of its all-time high of $73,780.07 set in March 2024. So is this the start of another massive run?

比特币 (BTC -3.22%) 再次上涨，目前该加密货币距离 2024 年 3 月创下的历史高点 73,780.07 美元已经很近了。那么，这是另一场大规模上涨的开始吗？

Or just a quick jump that ended with yesterday's sharp retreat?

或者只是以昨天的大幅回落结束的快速跳跃？

Bitcoin has a long history of record runs

比特币有着悠久的创纪录历史

Those who have been following Bitcoin for years know that the cryptocurrency is prone to massive price swings. The recent run isn't the first time something like it has happened and hardly the biggest.

那些多年来一直关注比特币的人都知道，这种加密货币很容易出现巨大的价格波动。最近的这起事件并不是第一次发生类似的事情，也不是规模最大的一次。

In its infancy, Bitcoin had some truly spectacular price runs, like from the end of 2010 through June of 2011 when the cryptocurrency went from roughly $0.30 to nearly $30. The next year, 2012, began with Bitcoin trading around $13. By November it had hit $1,000.

在其起步阶段，比特币经历了一些真正惊人的价格上涨，例如从 2010 年底到 2011 年 6 月，加密货币从大约 0.30 美元涨到近 30 美元。第二年，即 2012 年，比特币的交易价格在 13 美元左右开始。到 11 月，它已经达到了 1,000 美元。

Still, the run-up from late 2023 through the beginning of 2024 was impressive and marked a sharp departure from the poor performance of 2022. In a matter of a few months, Bitcoin had risen from $25,000 to nearly $74,000.

尽管如此，从 2023 年底到 2024 年初的上涨令人印象深刻，与 2022 年的糟糕表现截然不同。在短短几个月内，比特币从 25,000 美元上涨到近 74,000 美元。

So many factors are at play here, but a few key catalysts likely spurred this last run.

这里有很多因素在起作用，但一些关键的催化剂可能刺激了这最后一次上涨。

First, while institutional capital had been entering the market for years, the Securities and Exchange Commission approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) greatly expanded access across Wall Street and retail investors alike. Additional capital flooded in. Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin ETF, for instance, set a record when it passed $10 billion in assets under management (AUM) just seven weeks after launch. The previous record was set by SPDR's Gold Trust, which took two years to reach the same mark.

首先，虽然机构资本多年来一直在进入市场，但美国证券交易委员会对现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准极大地扩大了华尔街和散户投资者的投资机会。更多资本涌入。例如，贝莱德的 iShares 比特币 ETF 在推出仅七周后，其管理资产 (AUM) 就突破了 100 亿美元，创下了纪录。之前的纪录是由 SPDR 的黄金信托公司创下的，该公司花了两年时间才达到同样的记录。

Additionally, the so-called halving occurred in April. Baked into the Bitcoin algorithm is a feature that reduces the flow of new Bitcoin into the market over time. Every four years, the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half until eventually, in the year 2140, no more Bitcoin can be mined.

此外，所谓的减半发生在四月份。比特币算法中内置了一项功能，可以随着时间的推移减少新比特币进入市场的流量。每四年，开采比特币的奖励就会减少一半，直到最终在 2140 年不再开采比特币。

If we think of the simple relationship between supply and demand, every time this occurs, supply growth is reduced. If demand stays constant or even increases, prices should rise as well. Each of Bitcoin's halvings has been correlated with a big upswing in the asset's price.

如果我们考虑供给和需求之间的简单关系，每次这种情况发生时，供给增长都会减少。如果需求保持不变甚至增加，价格也会上涨。比特币的每次减半都与资产价格的大幅上涨相关。

Here's what could be happening this time around

这一次可能会发生以下情况

The latest jump is no doubt still tied to the previous two factors, but a few more catalysts are at play. In general, things are looking fairly rosy for the broader economy. It's not perfect, but many believe the Federal Reserve is pulling off a soft landing — that is, curbing inflation without choking the economy — putting to bed fears of a recession.

毫无疑问，最新的上涨仍然与前两个因素有关，但还有更多的催化剂在发挥作用。总体而言，整体经济形势看起来相当乐观。它并不完美，但许多人相信美联储正在实现软着陆——即在不抑制经济的情况下抑制通胀——消除对经济衰退的担忧。

The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates, and many believe that regardless of which candidate wins the U.S. presidential election in November, there will be a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment in the near future.

美联储很可能会继续降息，许多人认为，无论哪位候选人赢得 11 月的美国总统大选，不久的将来都会出现更加有利于加密货币的监管环境。

At the same time, many investors are looking to further diversify away from equities, as some believe the next decade will look very different from the last. Goldman Sachs analysts believe the next 10 years will return an average of just 3%, much lower than the historical norm.

与此同时，许多投资者正在寻求进一步多元化，远离股票，因为一些人认为下一个十年将与上一个十年截然不同。高盛分析师认为，未来10年平均回报率仅为3%，远低于历史正常水平。

Now, take this with a grain of salt; it wouldn't be the first time a prediction like this turns out to be totally wrong, but it's certainly possible. An asset like Bitcoin is a great alternative to equities and could provide balance in a diversified portfolio.

现在，对此持保留态度；这并不是第一次这样的预测被证明是完全错误的，但它肯定是有可能的。像比特币这样的资产是股票的绝佳替代品，可以在多元化的投资组合中提供平衡。

Bitcoin is likely to out-perform the market

比特币的表现可能会跑赢市场

Even if Goldman Sachs' report is off-target, I think Bitcoin is likely to outpace the broader market by a long shot.

即使高盛的报告偏离目标，我认为比特币也可能远远超过大盘。

I'm not sure I buy some of the more incredible predictions by Bitcoin's evangelists like Cathie Wood, who believes it could top $3.8 million by 2030, but it's not impossible. Bitcoin has earned its place as a legitimate investment asset. As more institutional money pours in, Bitcoin will likely march higher.

我不确定我是否相信比特币传播者 Cathie Wood 做出的一些更令人难以置信的预测，她认为到 2030 年比特币价格可能会突破 380 万美元，但这并非不可能。比特币已经赢得了作为合法投资资产的地位。随着更多机构资金涌入，比特币可能会走高。

I would caution investors nearing retirement, however. Bitcoin is still a relatively volatile asset and is not where you want your money if you need guaranteed income.

不过，我要提醒即将退休的投资者。比特币仍然是一种相对不稳定的资产，如果您需要有保证的收入，那么它不是您想要的钱。

For investors with more risk tolerance, however, Bitcoin is a smart choice. Obviously, buying in when Bitcoin is near all-time highs increases your risk, but I don't think it's a reason to hold off. As they say, time in the market beats timing the market.

然而，对于风险承受能力更强的投资者来说，比特币是一个明智的选择。显然，当比特币接近历史高点时买入会增加你的风险，但我不认为这是推迟的理由。正如他们所说，在市场上的时间胜过对市场时机的把握。