比特幣 (BTC) 再次上漲，目前距離 2024 年 3 月創下的歷史高點 73,780.07 美元已經很近了。還是只是以昨天的急劇回落結束的快速跳躍？

那些多年交易比特幣的人都知道，加密貨幣的價格很容易出現巨大波動。

Bitcoin (BTC -3.22%) is once again on the move, and the cryptocurrency is now within shouting distance of its all-time high of $73,780.07 set in March 2024. So is this the start of another massive run?

比特幣 (BTC -3.22%) 再次上漲，目前該加密貨幣距離 2024 年 3 月創下的歷史高點 73,780.07 美元已經很近了。

Or just a quick jump that ended with yesterday's sharp retreat?

或者只是以昨天的大幅回落結束的快速跳躍？

Bitcoin has a long history of record runs

比特幣有著悠久的創紀錄歷史

Those who have been following Bitcoin for years know that the cryptocurrency is prone to massive price swings. The recent run isn't the first time something like it has happened and hardly the biggest.

多年來一直關注比特幣的人都知道，這種加密貨幣很容易出現巨大的價格波動。最近的這起事件並不是第一次發生類似的事情，也不是規模最大的一次。

In its infancy, Bitcoin had some truly spectacular price runs, like from the end of 2010 through June of 2011 when the cryptocurrency went from roughly $0.30 to nearly $30. The next year, 2012, began with Bitcoin trading around $13. By November it had hit $1,000.

在其起步階段，比特幣經歷了一些真正驚人的價格上漲，例如從 2010 年底到 2011 年 6 月，加密貨幣從大約 0.30 美元漲到近 30 美元。第二年，即 2012 年，比特幣的交易價格在 13 美元左右開始。到 11 月，它已經達到了 1,000 美元。

Still, the run-up from late 2023 through the beginning of 2024 was impressive and marked a sharp departure from the poor performance of 2022. In a matter of a few months, Bitcoin had risen from $25,000 to nearly $74,000.

儘管如此，從 2023 年底到 2024 年初的上漲令人印象深刻，與 2022 年的糟糕表現截然不同。

So many factors are at play here, but a few key catalysts likely spurred this last run.

這裡有很多因素在起作用，但一些關鍵的催化劑可能刺激了這最後一次上漲。

First, while institutional capital had been entering the market for years, the Securities and Exchange Commission approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) greatly expanded access across Wall Street and retail investors alike. Additional capital flooded in. Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin ETF, for instance, set a record when it passed $10 billion in assets under management (AUM) just seven weeks after launch. The previous record was set by SPDR's Gold Trust, which took two years to reach the same mark.

首先，雖然機構資本多年來一直在進入市場，但美國證券交易委員會對現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准極大地擴大了華爾街和散戶投資者的投資機會。更多資本湧入。先前的紀錄是由 SPDR 的黃金信託公司創下的，該公司花了兩年時間才達到同樣的記錄。

Additionally, the so-called halving occurred in April. Baked into the Bitcoin algorithm is a feature that reduces the flow of new Bitcoin into the market over time. Every four years, the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half until eventually, in the year 2140, no more Bitcoin can be mined.

此外，所謂的減半發生在四月。比特幣演算法中內建了一項功能，可以隨著時間的推移減少新比特幣進入市場的流量。每四年，開採比特幣的獎勵就會減少一半，直到 2140 年最終不再開採比特幣。

If we think of the simple relationship between supply and demand, every time this occurs, supply growth is reduced. If demand stays constant or even increases, prices should rise as well. Each of Bitcoin's halvings has been correlated with a big upswing in the asset's price.

如果我們考慮供給和需求之間的簡單關係，每次這種情況發生時，供給成長都會減少。如果需求不變甚至增加，價格也會上漲。比特幣的每次減半都與資產價格的大幅上漲有關。

Here's what could be happening this time around

這次可能會發生以下情況

The latest jump is no doubt still tied to the previous two factors, but a few more catalysts are at play. In general, things are looking fairly rosy for the broader economy. It's not perfect, but many believe the Federal Reserve is pulling off a soft landing — that is, curbing inflation without choking the economy — putting to bed fears of a recession.

毫無疑問，最新的上漲仍然與前兩個因素有關，但還有更多的催化劑在發揮作用。整體而言，整體經濟情勢看起來相當樂觀。它並不完美，但許多人相信聯準會正在實現軟著陸——即在不抑制經濟的情況下抑制通膨——消除對經濟衰退的擔憂。

The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates, and many believe that regardless of which candidate wins the U.S. presidential election in November, there will be a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment in the near future.

聯準會很可能會繼續降息，許多人認為，無論哪位候選人贏得 11 月的美國總統大選，不久的將來都會出現更有利於加密貨幣的監管環境。

At the same time, many investors are looking to further diversify away from equities, as some believe the next decade will look very different from the last. Goldman Sachs analysts believe the next 10 years will return an average of just 3%, much lower than the historical norm.

與此同時，許多投資者正在尋求進一步多元化，遠離股票，因為有些人認為下一個十年將與上一個十年截然不同。高盛分析師認為，未來10年平均報酬率僅3%，遠低於歷史正常水準。

Now, take this with a grain of salt; it wouldn't be the first time a prediction like this turns out to be totally wrong, but it's certainly possible. An asset like Bitcoin is a great alternative to equities and could provide balance in a diversified portfolio.

現在，對此持保留態度；這並不是第一次這樣的預測被證明是完全錯誤的，但它肯定是有可能的。像比特幣這樣的資產是股票的絕佳替代品，可以在多元化的投資組合中提供平衡。

Bitcoin is likely to out-perform the market

比特幣的表現可能會跑贏市場

Even if Goldman Sachs' report is off-target, I think Bitcoin is likely to outpace the broader market by a long shot.

即使高盛的報告偏離目標，我認為比特幣也可能遠遠超過大盤。

I'm not sure I buy some of the more incredible predictions by Bitcoin's evangelists like Cathie Wood, who believes it could top $3.8 million by 2030, but it's not impossible. Bitcoin has earned its place as a legitimate investment asset. As more institutional money pours in, Bitcoin will likely march higher.

我不確定我是否相信比特幣傳播者 Cathie Wood 做出的一些更令人難以置信的預測，她認為到 2030 年比特幣價格可能會突破 380 萬美元，但這並非不可能。比特幣已經贏得了作為合法投資資產的地位。隨著更多機構資金湧入，比特幣可能會走高。

I would caution investors nearing retirement, however. Bitcoin is still a relatively volatile asset and is not where you want your money if you need guaranteed income.

不過，我要提醒即將退休的投資人。比特幣仍然是一種相對不穩定的資產，如果您需要保證的收入，那麼它不是您想要的錢。

For investors with more risk tolerance, however, Bitcoin is a smart choice. Obviously, buying in when Bitcoin is near all-time highs increases your risk, but I don't think it's a reason to hold off. As they say, time in the market beats timing the market.

然而，對於風險承受能力較強的投資者來說，比特幣是個明智的選擇。顯然，當比特幣接近歷史高點時買入會增加你的風險，但我不認為這是推遲的理由。正如他們所說，在市場上的時間勝過對市場時機的把握。