由于美国大选前的乐观情绪和现货比特币 ETF 资金回流，比特币 (BTC) 价格接近 7.4 万美元

比特币/美元日线图。资料来源：TradingView 特朗普获胜可能会将比特币价格推至 10 万美元 比特币最近的涨势超过 73,000 美元，这被称为“

Optimism around the upcoming U.S. elections, massive inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and several technical and onchain indicators suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) price is on the path to new all-time highs.

对即将到来的美国大选的乐观情绪、大量资金流入现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）以及多项技术和链上指标表明，比特币（BTC）价格正在创历史新高。

A Trump win could send Bitcoin price to $100K

特朗普获胜可能会将比特币价格推至 10 万美元

Bitcoin’s recent rally above $73,000 has been christened the “Trump trade” by some market commentators, as optimism surrounding a potential Trump presidency amounts among crypto enthusiasts.

比特币最近上涨至 73,000 美元以上，被一些市场评论员称为“特朗普交易”，因为加密货币爱好者对特朗普可能当选总统抱有乐观情绪。

Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continues to extend his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets.

前总统、共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普在博彩市场上继续扩大对副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的领先优势。

Trump has been courting the crypto industry, presenting himself as a crypto-friendly candidate, attending the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July and promising never to sell any Bitcoin held by the United States government, among other pronouncements.

特朗普一直在向加密行业示好，将自己描绘成一位对加密货币友好的候选人，7月份出席了在纳什维尔举行的比特币会议，并承诺永远不会出售美国政府持有的任何比特币等。

Conversely, Harris’ stance on crypto is still unclear at best, though some argue that she will take a softer stance on crypto than Joe Biden.

相反，哈里斯对加密货币的立场充其量仍不清楚，尽管一些人认为她对加密货币的立场将比乔·拜登更为温和。

At the time of publication, Trump led with a 67% chance of winning the Nov. 5 presidential election versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stood at 33%, according to data from Polymarket. However, opinion polls show a neck-to-neck race, making the election outcome too close to call.

根据 Polymarket 的数据，截至发稿时，特朗普以 67% 的几率赢得 11 月 5 日总统选举，而民主党候选人卡马拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 的获胜几率为 33%。然而，民意调查显示，选举结果势均力敌，难以预测。

A possible Trump victory is stirring optimism in the market. According to Teen Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman, a Trump election win would turn the U.S. into a pro-crypto environment, leading to a significant influx of investment in the crypto markets.

特朗普可能获胜正在激发市场的乐观情绪。青少年比特币百万富翁埃里克·芬曼 (Erik Finman) 表示，特朗普当选将使美国变成一个支持加密货币的环境，从而导致大量投资涌入加密货币市场。

“His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board,” Finman added.

芬曼补充道：“他的政策将点燃加密货币市场，推动全面的大规模增长。”

IG Australia Pty’s market analyst Tony Sycamore believes Bitcoin’s trajectory reflects an optimistic outlook for Trump, highlighting the importance of sustaining its position above $70,000 to build confidence in the rally that could potentially surpass March’s peak of $73,794.

IG Australia Pty 的市场分析师 Tony Sycamore 认为，比特币的走势反映了特朗普的乐观前景，强调了将其地位维持在 70,000 美元以上的重要性，以建立对可能超越 3 月份峰值 73,794 美元的反弹的信心。

BTC price has rallied almost 15% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.

10 月份 BTC 价格上涨了近 15%，激发了人们对“Uptober”叙述的信心。

Big spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return

大量比特币 ETF 现货流入回归

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see massive capital inflow, with data from Farside Investors showing that a total of $23.3 billion have come into these investment products since they began trading on Jan. 11.

现货比特币 ETF 继续出现大量资金流入，Farside Investors 的数据显示，自 1 月 11 日开始交易以来，总计有 233 亿美元流入这些投资产品。

While Grayscale’s GBTC continues to see outflows, these are more than offset by inflows into other ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT, which recorded $642.9 million in inflows, clocking the biggest trading day in 6 months.

尽管 Grayscale 的 GBTC 继续出现资金流出，但这些资金被其他 ETF 的资金流入所抵消，其中包括 BlackRock 的 IBIT，该 ETF 录得 6.429 亿美元的资金流入，创下 6 个月来最大交易日。

Demand for Bitcoin ETFs accelerated this week, recording a total of $2.1 billion in inflows over the last five days. Oct. 30 alone saw close more than $870 million poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

本周，比特币 ETF 的需求加速增长，过去 5 天的资金流入总额达到 21 亿美元。仅 10 月 30 日，就有超过 8.7 亿美元流入现货比特币 ETF。

This is the “strongest ETF inflows” since March, said crypto data provider Ecoinometrics in an Oct. 29 post on X.

加密数据提供商 Ecoinometrics 在 10 月 29 日的 X 帖子中表示，这是自 3 月份以来“最强劲的 ETF 流入”。

Bitcoin short-term holder SOPR flips bullish

比特币短期持有者 SOPR 转而看涨

The recent rise above $70,000 saw more than 94% of all Bitcoin in supply turn into profit, but this has not led to intense profit-taking, according to data from CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 的数据显示，近期比特币价格突破 70,000 美元，超过 94% 的比特币供应量转化为利润，但这并没有导致强烈的获利了结。

The market intelligence firm’s short-term holder (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric reveals that despite STHs returning to profit, they are not “overheating.”

该市场情报公司的短期持有者 (STH) 支出产出利润率 (SOPR) 指标显示，尽管 STH 恢复盈利，但它们并没有“过热”。

SOPR is a metric used to show whether STHs have made a profit or loss compared to when they first held Bitcoin.

SOPR 是一个指标，用于显示 STH 与他们首次持有比特币时相比是否盈利或亏损。

A value above 1 indicates a high percentage of coins that have made a profit on their short-term investment, and a value below 1 indicates a high percentage of coins in loss.

高于 1 的值表示短期投资盈利的币种比例较高，低于 1 的值表示亏损的币种比例较高。

CruptoQuant says that this indicator is currently valued at 1.017%, suggesting that STHs are “realizing some profits and are not yet overheating.”

CruptoQuant 表示，该指标目前估值为 1.017%，表明 STH 正在“实现一些利润，并且尚未过热”。

The firm explained that an SOPR value of 1.03% was “considered overheating” during the 7-month sideways price action witnessed since March, suggesting that there is more room for BTC “on the upside” before reaching this level.

该公司解释说，自 3 月份以来的 7 个月横向价格走势中，1.03% 的 SOPR 值被“视为过热”，这表明 BTC 在达到这一水平之前还有更多“上涨”空间。

Record-high Bitcoin IO reaffirms uptrend

比特币IO创历史新高再次确认了上升趋势

Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) hit an all-time high on Oct. 29 as BTC price broke past $73,000 for the first time since March.

CoinGlass 的数据显示，10 月 29 日，比特币期货未平仓合约 (OI) 创下历史新高，比特币价格自 3 月份以来首次突破 73,000 美元。

BTC futures OI recorded their biggest one-day jump since June 3, rising to over 20,000 BTC, worth $2.5 billion at current prices, to reach almost 600,000 BTC, or $41 billion, as shown in the figure below.

BTC 期货 OI 录得自 6 月 3 日以来最大单日涨幅，升至超过 20,000 BTC，按当前价格计算价值 25 亿美元，达到近 600,000 BTC，即 410 亿美元，如下图所示。

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled.

未平仓合约是指尚未结算的未平仓衍生品合约总数。

High OI indicates that there is significant investor interest in Bitcoin. When open interest increases along with BTC

高 OI 表明投资者对比特币有浓厚的兴趣。当未平仓合约随着 BTC 的增加而增加时