由於美國大選前的樂觀情緒和現貨比特幣 ETF 資金回流，比特幣 (BTC) 價格接近 7.4 萬美元

比特幣/美元日線圖。資料來源：TradingView 川普獲勝可能會將比特幣價格推至 10 萬美元 比特幣最近的漲勢超過 73,000 美元，這被稱為“

Optimism around the upcoming U.S. elections, massive inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and several technical and onchain indicators suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) price is on the path to new all-time highs.

對即將到來的美國大選的樂觀情緒、大量資金流入現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）以及多項技術和鏈上指標表明，比特幣（BTC）價格正在創歷史新高。

A Trump win could send Bitcoin price to $100K

川普獲勝可能會將比特幣價格推至 10 萬美元

Bitcoin’s recent rally above $73,000 has been christened the “Trump trade” by some market commentators, as optimism surrounding a potential Trump presidency amounts among crypto enthusiasts.

比特幣最近上漲至 73,000 美元以上，被一些市場評論員稱為“川普交易”，因為加密貨幣愛好者對川普可能當選總統抱持樂觀情緒。

Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continues to extend his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets.

前總統、共和黨總統候選人唐納德·川普在博彩市場上繼續擴大對副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯的領先優勢。

Trump has been courting the crypto industry, presenting himself as a crypto-friendly candidate, attending the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July and promising never to sell any Bitcoin held by the United States government, among other pronouncements.

川普一直在向加密行業示好，將自己描繪成一位對加密貨幣友好的候選人，7月份出席了在納許維爾舉行的比特幣會議，並承諾永遠不會出售美國政府持有的任何比特幣等。

Conversely, Harris’ stance on crypto is still unclear at best, though some argue that she will take a softer stance on crypto than Joe Biden.

相反，哈里斯對加密貨幣的立場充其量仍不清楚，儘管有些人認為她對加密貨幣的立場將比喬·拜登更為溫和。

At the time of publication, Trump led with a 67% chance of winning the Nov. 5 presidential election versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stood at 33%, according to data from Polymarket. However, opinion polls show a neck-to-neck race, making the election outcome too close to call.

根據 Polymarket 的數據，截至發稿時，川普以 67% 的幾率贏得 11 月 5 日總統選舉，而民主黨候選人 Kamala Harris 的獲勝幾率為 33%。然而，民調顯示，選舉結果勢均力敵，難以預測。

A possible Trump victory is stirring optimism in the market. According to Teen Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman, a Trump election win would turn the U.S. into a pro-crypto environment, leading to a significant influx of investment in the crypto markets.

川普可能獲勝正在激發市場的樂觀情緒。青少年比特幣百萬富翁 Erik Finman 表示，川普當選將使美國變成一個支持加密貨幣的環境，導致大量投資湧入加密貨幣市場。

“His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board,” Finman added.

芬曼補充道：“他的政策將點燃加密貨幣市場，推動全面的大規模增長。”

IG Australia Pty’s market analyst Tony Sycamore believes Bitcoin’s trajectory reflects an optimistic outlook for Trump, highlighting the importance of sustaining its position above $70,000 to build confidence in the rally that could potentially surpass March’s peak of $73,794.

IG Australia Pty 的市場分析師Tony Sycamore 認為，比特幣的走勢反映了川普的樂觀前景，強調了將其地位維持在70,000 美元以上的重要性，以建立對可能超越3 月份峰值73,794 美元的反彈的信心。

BTC price has rallied almost 15% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.

10 月 BTC 價格上漲了近 15%，激發了人們對「Uptober」敘事的信心。

Big spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return

大量比特幣 ETF 現貨流入回歸

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see massive capital inflow, with data from Farside Investors showing that a total of $23.3 billion have come into these investment products since they began trading on Jan. 11.

現貨比特幣 ETF 繼續出現大量資金流入，Farside Investors 的數據顯示，自 1 月 11 日開始交易以來，總計有 233 億美元流入這些投資產品。

While Grayscale’s GBTC continues to see outflows, these are more than offset by inflows into other ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT, which recorded $642.9 million in inflows, clocking the biggest trading day in 6 months.

儘管 Grayscale 的 GBTC 繼續出現資金流出，但這些資金被其他 ETF 的資金流入所抵消，其中包括 BlackRock 的 IBIT，該 ETF 錄得 6.429 億美元的資金流入，創下 6 個月來最大交易日。

Demand for Bitcoin ETFs accelerated this week, recording a total of $2.1 billion in inflows over the last five days. Oct. 30 alone saw close more than $870 million poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

本週，比特幣 ETF 的需求加速成長，過去 5 天的資金流入總額達到 21 億美元。光是 10 月 30 日，就有超過 8.7 億美元流入現貨比特幣 ETF。

This is the “strongest ETF inflows” since March, said crypto data provider Ecoinometrics in an Oct. 29 post on X.

加密數據提供商 Ecoinometrics 在 10 月 29 日的 X 貼文中表示，這是自 3 月以來「最強勁的 ETF 流入」。

Bitcoin short-term holder SOPR flips bullish

比特幣短期持有者 SOPR 轉而看漲

The recent rise above $70,000 saw more than 94% of all Bitcoin in supply turn into profit, but this has not led to intense profit-taking, according to data from CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 的數據顯示，近期比特幣價格突破 7 萬美元，超過 94% 的比特幣供應轉化為利潤，但這並沒有導致強烈的獲利了結。

The market intelligence firm’s short-term holder (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric reveals that despite STHs returning to profit, they are not “overheating.”

該市場情報公司的短期持有者 (STH) 支出產出利潤率 (SOPR) 指標顯示，儘管 STH 恢復盈利，但它們並沒有「過熱」。

SOPR is a metric used to show whether STHs have made a profit or loss compared to when they first held Bitcoin.

SOPR 是一個指標，用於顯示 STH 與他們首次持有比特幣時相比是否盈利或虧損。

A value above 1 indicates a high percentage of coins that have made a profit on their short-term investment, and a value below 1 indicates a high percentage of coins in loss.

高於 1 的數值表示短期投資獲利的幣種比例較高，低於 1 的數值表示虧損的幣種比例較高。

CruptoQuant says that this indicator is currently valued at 1.017%, suggesting that STHs are “realizing some profits and are not yet overheating.”

CruptoQuant 表示，該指標目前估值為 1.017%，顯示 STH 正在「實現一些利潤，並且尚未過熱」。

The firm explained that an SOPR value of 1.03% was “considered overheating” during the 7-month sideways price action witnessed since March, suggesting that there is more room for BTC “on the upside” before reaching this level.

該公司解釋說，自 3 月以來的 7 個月橫向價格走勢中，1.03% 的 SOPR 值被“視為過熱”，這表明 BTC 在達到這一水平之前還有更多“上漲”空間。

Record-high Bitcoin IO reaffirms uptrend

比特幣IO創歷史新高再次確認了上升趨勢

Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) hit an all-time high on Oct. 29 as BTC price broke past $73,000 for the first time since March.

CoinGlass 的數據顯示，10 月 29 日，比特幣期貨未平倉合約 (OI) 創下歷史新高，比特幣價格自 3 月以來首次突破 73,000 美元。

BTC futures OI recorded their biggest one-day jump since June 3, rising to over 20,000 BTC, worth $2.5 billion at current prices, to reach almost 600,000 BTC, or $41 billion, as shown in the figure below.

BTC 期貨 OI 錄得自 6 月 3 日以來最大單日漲幅，升至超過 20,000 BTC，以當前價格計算價值 25 億美元，達到近 600,000 BTC，即 410 億美元，如下圖所示。

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled.

未平倉合約是指尚未結算的未平倉衍生性合約總數。

High OI indicates that there is significant investor interest in Bitcoin. When open interest increases along with BTC

高 OI 表示投資者對比特幣有濃厚的興趣。當未平倉合約隨著 BTC 的增加而增加時