Bitcoin (BTC) Price Nears $74K as Pre-US Election Optimism, Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Return

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView A Trump win could send Bitcoin price to $100K Bitcoin's recent rally above $73,000 has been christened the

Optimism around the upcoming U.S. elections, massive inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and several technical and onchain indicators suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) price is on the path to new all-time highs.

A Trump win could send Bitcoin price to $100K

Bitcoin’s recent rally above $73,000 has been christened the “Trump trade” by some market commentators, as optimism surrounding a potential Trump presidency amounts among crypto enthusiasts.

Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continues to extend his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets.

Trump has been courting the crypto industry, presenting himself as a crypto-friendly candidate, attending the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July and promising never to sell any Bitcoin held by the United States government, among other pronouncements.

Conversely, Harris’ stance on crypto is still unclear at best, though some argue that she will take a softer stance on crypto than Joe Biden.

At the time of publication, Trump led with a 67% chance of winning the Nov. 5 presidential election versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stood at 33%, according to data from Polymarket. However, opinion polls show a neck-to-neck race, making the election outcome too close to call.

A possible Trump victory is stirring optimism in the market. According to Teen Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman, a Trump election win would turn the U.S. into a pro-crypto environment, leading to a significant influx of investment in the crypto markets.

“His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board,” Finman added.

IG Australia Pty’s market analyst Tony Sycamore believes Bitcoin’s trajectory reflects an optimistic outlook for Trump, highlighting the importance of sustaining its position above $70,000 to build confidence in the rally that could potentially surpass March’s peak of $73,794.

BTC price has rallied almost 15% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.

Big spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see massive capital inflow, with data from Farside Investors showing that a total of $23.3 billion have come into these investment products since they began trading on Jan. 11.

While Grayscale’s GBTC continues to see outflows, these are more than offset by inflows into other ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT, which recorded $642.9 million in inflows, clocking the biggest trading day in 6 months.

Demand for Bitcoin ETFs accelerated this week, recording a total of $2.1 billion in inflows over the last five days. Oct. 30 alone saw close more than $870 million poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

This is the “strongest ETF inflows” since March, said crypto data provider Ecoinometrics in an Oct. 29 post on X.

Bitcoin short-term holder SOPR flips bullish

The recent rise above $70,000 saw more than 94% of all Bitcoin in supply turn into profit, but this has not led to intense profit-taking, according to data from CryptoQuant.

The market intelligence firm’s short-term holder (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric reveals that despite STHs returning to profit, they are not “overheating.”

SOPR is a metric used to show whether STHs have made a profit or loss compared to when they first held Bitcoin.

A value above 1 indicates a high percentage of coins that have made a profit on their short-term investment, and a value below 1 indicates a high percentage of coins in loss.

CruptoQuant says that this indicator is currently valued at 1.017%, suggesting that STHs are “realizing some profits and are not yet overheating.”

The firm explained that an SOPR value of 1.03% was “considered overheating” during the 7-month sideways price action witnessed since March, suggesting that there is more room for BTC “on the upside” before reaching this level.

Record-high Bitcoin IO reaffirms uptrend

Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) hit an all-time high on Oct. 29 as BTC price broke past $73,000 for the first time since March.

BTC futures OI recorded their biggest one-day jump since June 3, rising to over 20,000 BTC, worth $2.5 billion at current prices, to reach almost 600,000 BTC, or $41 billion, as shown in the figure below.

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled.

High OI indicates that there is significant investor interest in Bitcoin. When open interest increases along with BTC