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比特币(BTC)于 9 月 28 日收于两个月来的最高水平,目前逼近 66,000 美元大关。
Bitcoin (BTC) price closed at its highest level in two months on Sept. 28 and is currently approaching the $66,000 mark. This movement followed gains in the S&P 500 index, which reached an all-time high on Sept. 26, fueled by robust economic indicators and measures aimed at boosting markets and investor confidence in China.
9 月 28 日,比特币 (BTC) 价格收于两个月来最高水平,目前逼近 66,000 美元大关。在强劲的经济指标和旨在提振市场和投资者对中国信心的措施的推动下,标准普尔 500 指数于 9 月 26 日创下历史新高。
However, several metrics indicate that Bitcoin is far from entering a bull market. Let's take a look at what's keeping the bears hopeful despite BTC's 21% gains in three weeks.
然而,多项指标表明,比特币距离进入牛市还很远。尽管 BTC 在三周内上涨了 21%,但让我们来看看是什么让空头仍抱有希望。
Bitcoin/USD (right) vs. S&P 500 futures (left). Source: TradingView
比特币/美元(右)与标准普尔 500 指数期货(左)。来源:TradingView
Investor skepticism clouds Bitcoin's recent rally
投资者的怀疑给比特币近期的涨势蒙上了阴影
Skepticism among investors could be a result of previous rejections at $70,000 or fears that a potential recession is underway, which would negatively impact risk-on markets, including cryptocurrencies.
投资者的怀疑可能是由于之前在 70,000 美元的价格被拒绝,或者担心潜在的经济衰退正在发生,这将对包括加密货币在内的风险市场产生负面影响。
Although this sentiment does not guarantee a sell-off, it makes it easier for bears to instill fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) to suppress Bitcoin's price. Regardless of what is dampening Bitcoin traders' spirits, there is no guarantee that its price will continue to benefit from the stock market's bullish momentum.
尽管这种情绪并不能保证会出现抛售,但它使空头更容易灌输恐惧、不确定性和怀疑(FUD)来打压比特币的价格。无论比特币交易者的情绪受到什么打击,都不能保证其价格将继续受益于股市的看涨势头。
Some analysts argue that central banks' shift to expansionist monetary policy indicates that economies are at risk. Contrary to common belief, this does not necessarily imply high odds of a market bubble bursting, as mega-cap tech companies are able to capture value even in times of declining revenues.
一些分析师认为,央行转向扩张性货币政策表明经济面临风险。与普遍看法相反,这并不一定意味着市场泡沫破裂的可能性很高,因为即使在收入下降的时期,大型科技公司也能够获取价值。
With high margins and strong balance sheets, companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft can benefit from discounted niche acquisitions and face less competition for new hires and equipment, including microchips for artificial intelligence use. In fact, an overheated economy is a net negative for margins, as it creates shortages and high logistics fees.
凭借高利润率和强劲的资产负债表,谷歌、亚马逊、苹果和微软等公司可以从折扣利基收购中受益,并在新员工和设备(包括用于人工智能的微芯片)方面面临较少的竞争。事实上,经济过热对利润率产生净负面影响,因为它会造成短缺和高物流费用。
Meanwhile, for Bitcoin, investors might still value its scarcity and sovereignty, but its drivers significantly diverge from those of the traditional stock market. Moreover, historically, when investors fear a looming recession, they tend to seek shelter in gold, short-term government bonds, and companies that dominate their field.
与此同时,对于比特币来说,投资者可能仍然看重其稀缺性和主权,但其驱动因素与传统股票市场的驱动因素明显不同。此外,从历史上看,当投资者担心经济衰退迫在眉睫时,他们往往会寻求黄金、短期政府债券和主导其领域的公司的庇护。
In essence, even if the S&P 500 continues to make new highs, that does not necessarily mean Bitcoin's price will benefit. Therefore, Bitcoin bulls need to analyze whether the underlying conditions have changed since the multiple rejections at $70,000 before concluding that lower interest rates and higher government debt are enough to push BTC's price higher.
从本质上讲,即使标准普尔 500 指数继续创出新高,也并不一定意味着比特币的价格会受益。因此,比特币多头需要分析自多次拒绝 70,000 美元以来基本条件是否发生变化,然后才能得出较低的利率和较高的政府债务足以推高 BTC 价格的结论。
For starters, the Coinbase exchange mobile app ranked number 385 on Sept. 28, according to user COINAppRankBot on the X social network. While this represents an improvement from position 482 on Sept. 14, it indicates a lackluster retail investor appetite even as Bitcoin's price gained 21% in three weeks. Yet a Bitcoin bull could argue the glass is "half full," as there is still room for improvement.
首先,根据 X 社交网络上的用户 COINAppRankBot 的数据,Coinbase 交易所移动应用程序在 9 月 28 日排名第 385 位。虽然这比 9 月 14 日的第 482 位有所改善,但这表明散户投资者的兴趣低迷,尽管比特币的价格在三周内上涨了 21%。然而,看涨比特币的人可能会说杯子是“半满的”,因为仍有改进的空间。
China's stablecoin discount signals bearish sentiment amid institutional inflows
中国稳定币折扣预示着机构资金流入中的看跌情绪
Inflows from institutional investors might have driven the recent surge in Bitcoin's price, and data from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) corroborate this thesis. However, recent data from Chinese markets show the opposite trend. By examining the demand for stablecoins in China, we can gauge whether investors are entering or exiting the cryptocurrency markets.
来自机构投资者的资金流入可能推动了近期比特币价格的飙升,来自现货交易所交易基金(ETF)的数据证实了这一论点。然而,最近来自中国市场的数据却显示出相反的趋势。通过考察中国对稳定币的需求,我们可以判断投资者是否正在进入或退出加密货币市场。
Typically, excessive demand causes stablecoins to trade at a premium of 1.5% or higher compared to the official US dollar rate, whereas bear markets result in a discount.
通常情况下,过度需求会导致稳定币的交易价格比官方美元汇率溢价 1.5% 或更高,而熊市则会导致折扣。
USD Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer trades vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX
USD Tether (USDT) 点对点交易与美元/人民币的比较。来源:OKX
The USDT premium in China has remained below parity for the past two weeks, indicating bearish sentiment. This metric contradicts the recent appetite for spot ETFs in the United States and further strengthens the bears' argument of a lack of investor demand.
过去两周,中国的 USDT 溢价一直低于平价,表明看跌情绪。这一指标与美国近期对现货 ETF 的兴趣相矛盾,并进一步强化了看空者关于投资者需求缺乏的论点。
Related: Bitcoin price eyes 11% monthly gains as DXY threatens 'major' plunge
相关:由于 DXY 威胁“大幅”暴跌,比特币价格预计月度上涨 11%
Investors' lack of conviction is also evident in the Bitcoin futures markets, even in monthly contracts typically preferred by whales and institutional investors due to their absence of fluctuating funding rates. In neutral markets, these derivative contracts tend to trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium to account for their longer settlement periods.
投资者对比特币期货市场缺乏信心也很明显,即使是鲸鱼和机构投资者通常喜欢的月度合约,因为它们没有波动的融资利率。在中性市场中,这些衍生品合约往往以 5% 至 10% 的年化溢价进行交易,以考虑其较长的结算期。
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
比特币 2 个月期货年化溢价。资料来源:Laevitas.ch
Data shows that the Bitcoin futures premium stabilized at 6% despite the rally toward $66,000 on Sept. 29. These savvy derivatives traders maintained their neutral stance, displaying reluctance driven by fear of missing out, but at the same time may have given bears exactly what they needed—a signal of a lack of conviction.
数据显示,尽管比特币期货溢价在 9 月 29 日涨至 66,000 美元,但仍稳定在 6%。这些精明的衍生品交易员保持中立立场,表现出因害怕错过而不愿做的事情,但同时可能也给了空头什么他们需要——缺乏信念的信号。
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions
本文仅供一般信息参考,无意也不应被视为法律或投资建议。观点、想法和意见
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