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比特幣(BTC)於 9 月 28 日收於兩個月來的最高水平,目前逼近 66,000 美元大關。
Bitcoin (BTC) price closed at its highest level in two months on Sept. 28 and is currently approaching the $66,000 mark. This movement followed gains in the S&P 500 index, which reached an all-time high on Sept. 26, fueled by robust economic indicators and measures aimed at boosting markets and investor confidence in China.
9 月 28 日,比特幣 (BTC) 價格收於兩個月來最高水平,目前逼近 66,000 美元大關。在強勁的經濟指標和旨在提振市場和投資者對中國信心的措施的推動下,標準普爾 500 指數於 9 月 26 日創下歷史新高。
However, several metrics indicate that Bitcoin is far from entering a bull market. Let's take a look at what's keeping the bears hopeful despite BTC's 21% gains in three weeks.
然而,多個指標表明,比特幣距離進入牛市還很遠。儘管 BTC 在三週內上漲了 21%,但讓我們來看看是什麼讓空頭仍抱持希望。
Bitcoin/USD (right) vs. S&P 500 futures (left). Source: TradingView
比特幣/美元(右)與標準普爾 500 指數期貨(左)。來源:TradingView
Investor skepticism clouds Bitcoin's recent rally
投資者的懷疑給比特幣近期的漲勢蒙上了陰影
Skepticism among investors could be a result of previous rejections at $70,000 or fears that a potential recession is underway, which would negatively impact risk-on markets, including cryptocurrencies.
投資者的懷疑可能是由於先前在 7 萬美元的價格被拒絕,或者擔心潛在的經濟衰退正在發生,這將對包括加密貨幣在內的風險市場產生負面影響。
Although this sentiment does not guarantee a sell-off, it makes it easier for bears to instill fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) to suppress Bitcoin's price. Regardless of what is dampening Bitcoin traders' spirits, there is no guarantee that its price will continue to benefit from the stock market's bullish momentum.
儘管這種情緒並不能保證會出現拋售,但它使空頭更容易灌輸恐懼、不確定性和懷疑(FUD)來打壓比特幣的價格。無論比特幣交易者的情緒受到什麼打擊,都不能保證其價格將繼續受益於股市的看漲勢頭。
Some analysts argue that central banks' shift to expansionist monetary policy indicates that economies are at risk. Contrary to common belief, this does not necessarily imply high odds of a market bubble bursting, as mega-cap tech companies are able to capture value even in times of declining revenues.
一些分析師認為,央行轉向擴張性貨幣政策顯示經濟面臨風險。與一般看法相反,這並不一定意味著市場泡沫破裂的可能性很高,因為即使在收入下降的時期,大型科技公司也能夠獲取價值。
With high margins and strong balance sheets, companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft can benefit from discounted niche acquisitions and face less competition for new hires and equipment, including microchips for artificial intelligence use. In fact, an overheated economy is a net negative for margins, as it creates shortages and high logistics fees.
憑藉高利潤率和強勁的資產負債表,Google、亞馬遜、蘋果和微軟等公司可以從折扣利基收購中受益,並在新員工和設備(包括用於人工智慧的微晶片)方面面臨較少的競爭。事實上,經濟過熱對利潤率產生淨負面影響,因為它會造成短缺和高物流費用。
Meanwhile, for Bitcoin, investors might still value its scarcity and sovereignty, but its drivers significantly diverge from those of the traditional stock market. Moreover, historically, when investors fear a looming recession, they tend to seek shelter in gold, short-term government bonds, and companies that dominate their field.
同時,對於比特幣來說,投資者可能仍然看重其稀缺性和主權,但其驅動因素與傳統股票市場的驅動因素明顯不同。此外,從歷史上看,當投資者擔心經濟衰退迫在眉睫時,他們往往會尋求黃金、短期政府債券和主導其領域的公司的庇護。
In essence, even if the S&P 500 continues to make new highs, that does not necessarily mean Bitcoin's price will benefit. Therefore, Bitcoin bulls need to analyze whether the underlying conditions have changed since the multiple rejections at $70,000 before concluding that lower interest rates and higher government debt are enough to push BTC's price higher.
從本質上講,即使標準普爾 500 指數繼續創出新高,也不一定意味著比特幣的價格會受益。因此,比特幣多頭需要分析自多次拒絕 70,000 美元以來基本條件是否發生變化,然後才能得出較低的利率和較高的政府債務足以推高 BTC 價格的結論。
For starters, the Coinbase exchange mobile app ranked number 385 on Sept. 28, according to user COINAppRankBot on the X social network. While this represents an improvement from position 482 on Sept. 14, it indicates a lackluster retail investor appetite even as Bitcoin's price gained 21% in three weeks. Yet a Bitcoin bull could argue the glass is "half full," as there is still room for improvement.
首先,根據 X 社交網路上的用戶 COINAppRankBot 的數據,Coinbase 交易所行動應用程式在 9 月 28 日排名第 385 位。雖然這比 9 月 14 日的第 482 位有所改善,但這表明散戶投資者的興趣低迷,儘管比特幣的價格在三週內上漲了 21%。然而,看漲比特幣的人可能會說杯子是“半滿的”,因為仍有改進的空間。
China's stablecoin discount signals bearish sentiment amid institutional inflows
中國穩定幣折扣預示著機構資金流入的看跌情緒
Inflows from institutional investors might have driven the recent surge in Bitcoin's price, and data from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) corroborate this thesis. However, recent data from Chinese markets show the opposite trend. By examining the demand for stablecoins in China, we can gauge whether investors are entering or exiting the cryptocurrency markets.
來自機構投資者的資金流入可能推動了近期比特幣價格的飆升,來自現貨交易所交易基金(ETF)的數據證實了這一論點。然而,最近來自中國市場的數據卻顯示出相反的趨勢。透過檢視中國對穩定幣的需求,我們可以判斷投資者是否正在進入或退出加密貨幣市場。
Typically, excessive demand causes stablecoins to trade at a premium of 1.5% or higher compared to the official US dollar rate, whereas bear markets result in a discount.
通常情況下,過度需求會導致穩定幣的交易價格比官方美元匯率溢價 1.5% 或更高,而熊市則會導致折扣。
USD Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer trades vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX
USD Tether (USDT) 點對點交易與美元/人民幣的比較。來源:OKX
The USDT premium in China has remained below parity for the past two weeks, indicating bearish sentiment. This metric contradicts the recent appetite for spot ETFs in the United States and further strengthens the bears' argument of a lack of investor demand.
過去兩週,中國的 USDT 溢價一直低於平價,顯示看跌情緒。這項指標與美國近期對現貨 ETF 的興趣相矛盾,並進一步強化了看空者關於投資者需求缺乏的論點。
Related: Bitcoin price eyes 11% monthly gains as DXY threatens 'major' plunge
相關:由於 DXY 威脅「大幅」暴跌,比特幣價格預計月度上漲 11%
Investors' lack of conviction is also evident in the Bitcoin futures markets, even in monthly contracts typically preferred by whales and institutional investors due to their absence of fluctuating funding rates. In neutral markets, these derivative contracts tend to trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium to account for their longer settlement periods.
投資者對比特幣期貨市場缺乏信心也很明顯,即使是鯨魚和機構投資者通常喜歡的月度合約,因為它們沒有波動的融資利率。在中性市場中,這些衍生性合約往往以 5% 至 10% 的年化溢價進行交易,以考慮其較長的結算期。
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
比特幣 2 個月期貨年化溢價。資料來源:Laevitas.ch
Data shows that the Bitcoin futures premium stabilized at 6% despite the rally toward $66,000 on Sept. 29. These savvy derivatives traders maintained their neutral stance, displaying reluctance driven by fear of missing out, but at the same time may have given bears exactly what they needed—a signal of a lack of conviction.
數據顯示,儘管比特幣期貨溢價在9 月29 日漲至66,000 美元,但仍穩定在6%。可能也給了空頭什麼他們需要──缺乏信念的訊號。
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions
本文僅供一般資訊參考,無意也不應被視為法律或投資建議。觀點、想法和意見
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