由于衍生品指标保持显着稳定，比特币 (BTC) 价格跌至 6.7 万美元

10 月 21 日，比特币 (BTC) 价格跌至 67,000 美元，抹去了前三天的涨幅。

Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly dipped to $67,000 on Oct. 21, erasing the gains from the previous three days. According to some analysts, one reason for the correction was investors reducing their Bitcoin exposure due to fears of contagion from traditional markets. However, BTC derivatives metrics remained notably stable.

10 月 21 日，比特币 (BTC) 价格短暂下跌至 67,000 美元，抹去了前三天的涨幅。一些分析师表示，调整的原因之一是投资者由于担心传统市场的蔓延而减少了比特币的投资。然而，比特币衍生品指标仍显着稳定。

Even with concerns that numerous economies might be losing momentum or that confidence in the government’s ability to refinance debt is weakening, demand for Bitcoin derivatives as a hedge remained steady. If whales or arbitrage desks anticipated further decline, these metrics would have reflected more volatility.

尽管人们担心许多经济体可能会失去动力，或者对政府债务再融资能力的信心正在减弱，但对比特币衍生品作为对冲工具的需求仍然稳定。如果鲸鱼或套利柜台预计会进一步下跌，这些指标将反映出更大的波动性。

Bitcoin futures show no signs of bearish bets

比特币期货没有显示看跌押注的迹象

The Bitcoin futures premium, which typically ranges between 5% and 10% in neutral markets, saw only a slight impact on Oct. 21. The higher pricing of monthly BTC futures reflects the extended settlement period and signals bullish sentiment when the premium exceeds 10%.

比特币期货溢价在中性市场中通常在 5% 至 10% 之间，但在 10 月 21 日仅受到轻微影响。每月 BTC 期货定价较高反映了结算期的延长，当溢价超过 10% 时，表明看涨情绪。

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch

比特币 2 个月期货年化溢价。资料来源：laevitas.ch

The annualized premium (basis rate) remained above 9% on Oct. 21, even as Bitcoin retested the $67,000 support level. Nevertheless, before drawing conclusions, it’s important to confirm whether this sentiment was isolated to Bitcoin futures markets.

即使比特币重新测试 67,000 美元的支撑位，10 月 21 日的年化溢价（基差率）仍保持在 9% 以上。然而，在得出结论之前，重要的是要确认这种情绪是否仅限于比特币期货市场。

Based solely on price charts, it appears that Bitcoin's price movement mirrored the intraday performance of the stock market.

仅根据价格图表，比特币的价格走势似乎反映了股市的盘中表现。

S&P 500 futures (green) vs. Bitcoin/USD (blue). Source: TradingView

标准普尔 500 指数期货（绿色）与比特币/美元（蓝色）。来源：TradingView

Arif Husain, head of fixed-income at T. Rowe Price, told Bloomberg that the US 10-year Treasury yield “will test the 5% threshold in the next six months,” driven by rising inflation expectations and concerns over government fiscal spending. Yields increase when investors sell their bonds, indicating that traders are seeking higher returns.

T. Rowe Price固定收益主管阿里夫·侯赛因(Arif Husain)向彭博社表示，受通胀预期上升和对政府财政支出担忧的推动，美国10年期国债收益率“将在未来六个月内测试5%的门槛”。当投资者出售债券时，收益率会增加，表明交易者正在寻求更高的回报。

Husain noted that the government will “flood” the market with new debt issuance, while the Federal Reserve is attempting to shrink its balance sheet to curb inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. The US debt interest costs have surpassed $1 trillion on an annualized basis, prompting the central bank to consider lowering interest rates.

侯赛因指出，政府将向市场“大量发行新债”，而美联储则试图缩减资产负债表以抑制通胀并防止经济过热。美国债务利息成本按年计算已超过1万亿美元，促使央行考虑降低利率。

Bitcoin price has yet to decouple from stocks

比特币价格尚未与股票脱钩

Amid uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) have significantly influenced Bitcoin’s price trends.

在宏观经济环境的不确定性中，恐惧、不确定性和怀疑（FUD）极大地影响了比特币的价格趋势。

While Bitcoin is often viewed as uncorrelated to traditional markets—having demonstrated periods of complete detachment from the S&P 500—the 40-day correlation has remained above 80% over the past month, indicating that both asset classes have moved in close alignment.

尽管比特币通常被认为与传统市场不相关（已经表现出与标准普尔 500 指数完全脱离的时期），但过去一个月的 40 天相关性仍保持在 80% 以上，表明这两种资产类别的走势密切相关。

Bitcoin 40-day correlation vs. S&P 500 futures. Source: TradingView

比特币 40 天与标准普尔 500 指数期货的相关性。来源：TradingView

Unlike the period between mid-July and mid-September, when Bitcoin and the S&P 500 exhibited either a negative or negligible correlation, recent data suggest that both markets are being driven by similar factors. This hypothesis is further supported by the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and gold, which surpassed 80% on Oct. 3.

与 7 月中旬至 9 月中旬期间比特币和标准普尔 500 指数表现出负相关或可忽略不计的相关性不同，最近的数据表明这两个市场都受到类似因素的推动。比特币和黄金之间日益增强的相关性进一步支持了这一假设，10 月 3 日相关性超过 80%。

Related: Bitcoin ETF liquidity set to surge after SEC options approval — QCP

相关：SEC 期权批准后，比特币 ETF 流动性将激增 - QCP

Bitcoin options markets also reinforce the thesis of derivatives resilience. The 25% delta skew metric shows that put (sell) options are trading at a discount compared to equivalent call (buy) options.

比特币期权市场也强化了衍生品弹性的论点。 25% 的 Delta 偏差指标表明，与同等的看涨（买入）期权相比，看跌（卖出）期权的交易价格有折扣。

Bitcoin 1-month options skew, put-call. Source: Laevitas.ch

比特币 1 个月期期权倾斜、看跌期权。资料来源：Laevitas.ch

Typically, a skew between -7% and +7% is considered neutral, and the current metric sits at the borderline of a neutral to bullish market.

通常，-7% 到 +7% 之间的偏差被认为是中性的，当前指标位于中性到看涨市场的边界。

In short, derivatives traders did not react with panic to Bitcoin’s recent price decline. If traders were expecting further downside, the skew would have shifted toward zero or higher. Overall, Bitcoin derivatives continue to show resilience.

简而言之，衍生品交易商并没有对比特币最近的价格下跌做出恐慌反应。如果交易者预计价格会进一步下跌，那么偏差将转向零或更高。总体而言，比特币衍生品继续表现出韧性。