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10 月 21 日,比特幣 (BTC) 價格跌至 67,000 美元,抹去了前三天的漲幅。
Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly dipped to $67,000 on Oct. 21, erasing the gains from the previous three days. According to some analysts, one reason for the correction was investors reducing their Bitcoin exposure due to fears of contagion from traditional markets. However, BTC derivatives metrics remained notably stable.
10 月 21 日,比特幣 (BTC) 價格短暫下跌至 67,000 美元,抹去了前三天的漲幅。一些分析師表示,調整的原因之一是投資者因為擔心傳統市場的蔓延而減少了比特幣的曝險。然而,比特幣衍生性商品指標仍顯著穩定。
Even with concerns that numerous economies might be losing momentum or that confidence in the government’s ability to refinance debt is weakening, demand for Bitcoin derivatives as a hedge remained steady. If whales or arbitrage desks anticipated further decline, these metrics would have reflected more volatility.
儘管人們擔心許多經濟體可能會失去動力,或對政府債務再融資能力的信心正在減弱,但對比特幣衍生性商品作為對沖工具的需求仍然穩定。如果鯨魚或套利櫃檯預計會進一步下跌,這些指標將反映出更大的波動性。
Bitcoin futures show no signs of bearish bets
比特幣期貨沒有顯示看跌押注的跡象
The Bitcoin futures premium, which typically ranges between 5% and 10% in neutral markets, saw only a slight impact on Oct. 21. The higher pricing of monthly BTC futures reflects the extended settlement period and signals bullish sentiment when the premium exceeds 10%.
比特幣期貨溢價在中性市場中通常在5% 至10% 之間,但在10 月21 日僅受到輕微影響。 ,表示看漲情緒。
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch
比特幣 2 個月期貨年化溢價。資料來源:laevitas.ch
The annualized premium (basis rate) remained above 9% on Oct. 21, even as Bitcoin retested the $67,000 support level. Nevertheless, before drawing conclusions, it’s important to confirm whether this sentiment was isolated to Bitcoin futures markets.
即使比特幣重新測試 67,000 美元的支撐位,10 月 21 日的年化溢價(基差率)仍保持在 9% 以上。然而,在得出結論之前,重要的是要確認這種情緒是否僅限於比特幣期貨市場。
Based solely on price charts, it appears that Bitcoin's price movement mirrored the intraday performance of the stock market.
僅根據價格圖表,比特幣的價格走勢似乎反映了股市的盤中表現。
S&P 500 futures (green) vs. Bitcoin/USD (blue). Source: TradingView
標準普爾 500 指數期貨(綠色)與比特幣/美元(藍色)。來源:TradingView
Arif Husain, head of fixed-income at T. Rowe Price, told Bloomberg that the US 10-year Treasury yield “will test the 5% threshold in the next six months,” driven by rising inflation expectations and concerns over government fiscal spending. Yields increase when investors sell their bonds, indicating that traders are seeking higher returns.
T. Rowe Price固定收益主管阿里夫·侯賽因(Arif Husain)向彭博社表示,受通膨預期上升和對政府財政支出擔憂的推動,美國10年期國債收益率「將在未來六個月內測試5%的門檻」。當投資者出售債券時,收益率會增加,表明交易者正在尋求更高的回報。
Husain noted that the government will “flood” the market with new debt issuance, while the Federal Reserve is attempting to shrink its balance sheet to curb inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. The US debt interest costs have surpassed $1 trillion on an annualized basis, prompting the central bank to consider lowering interest rates.
侯賽因指出,政府將向市場“大量發行新債”,而聯準會則試圖縮減資產負債表以抑制通膨並防止經濟過熱。美國債務利息成本按年計算已超過1兆美元,促使央行考慮降低利率。
Bitcoin price has yet to decouple from stocks
比特幣價格尚未與股票脫鉤
Amid uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) have significantly influenced Bitcoin’s price trends.
在宏觀經濟環境的不確定性中,恐懼、不確定性和懷疑(FUD)極大地影響了比特幣的價格趨勢。
While Bitcoin is often viewed as uncorrelated to traditional markets—having demonstrated periods of complete detachment from the S&P 500—the 40-day correlation has remained above 80% over the past month, indicating that both asset classes have moved in close alignment.
儘管比特幣通常被認為與傳統市場不相關(已經表現出與標準普爾500 指數完全脫離的時期),但過去一個月的40 天相關性仍保持在80% 以上,表明這兩種資產類別的走勢密切相關。
Bitcoin 40-day correlation vs. S&P 500 futures. Source: TradingView
比特幣 40 天與標準普爾 500 指數期貨的相關性。來源:TradingView
Unlike the period between mid-July and mid-September, when Bitcoin and the S&P 500 exhibited either a negative or negligible correlation, recent data suggest that both markets are being driven by similar factors. This hypothesis is further supported by the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and gold, which surpassed 80% on Oct. 3.
與 7 月中旬至 9 月中旬期間比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數表現出負相關或可忽略不計的相關性不同,最近的數據表明這兩個市場都受到類似因素的推動。比特幣和黃金之間日益增強的相關性進一步支持了這一假設,10 月 3 日相關性超過 80%。
Related: Bitcoin ETF liquidity set to surge after SEC options approval — QCP
相關:SEC 選擇權批准後,比特幣 ETF 流動性將激增 - QCP
Bitcoin options markets also reinforce the thesis of derivatives resilience. The 25% delta skew metric shows that put (sell) options are trading at a discount compared to equivalent call (buy) options.
比特幣選擇權市場也強化了衍生性商品彈性的論點。 25% 的 Delta 偏度指標表明,與同等的看漲(買入)選擇權相比,看跌(賣出)選擇權的交易價格有折扣。
Bitcoin 1-month options skew, put-call. Source: Laevitas.ch
比特幣 1 個月期選擇權傾斜、賣權。資料來源:Laevitas.ch
Typically, a skew between -7% and +7% is considered neutral, and the current metric sits at the borderline of a neutral to bullish market.
通常,-7% 到 +7% 之間的偏差被認為是中性的,當前指標位於中性到看漲市場的邊界。
In short, derivatives traders did not react with panic to Bitcoin’s recent price decline. If traders were expecting further downside, the skew would have shifted toward zero or higher. Overall, Bitcoin derivatives continue to show resilience.
簡而言之,衍生性商品交易者並沒有對比特幣最近的價格下跌做出恐慌反應。如果交易者預期價格會進一步下跌,那麼偏差將轉向零或更高。總體而言,比特幣衍生品繼續表現出韌性。
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