比特币 (BTC) 价格盘整表明市场信心，衍生品显示看涨情绪

自 11 月 12 日以来，比特币 (BTC) 的交易价格一直在 7% 的窄幅区间内波动，预示着一段时期将在 91,000 美元附近盘整。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been largely consolidating within a narrow 7% range since Nov. 12, signaling a period of digestion following the recent surge to a new all-time high at $92,248.

自 11 月 12 日以来，比特币 (BTC) 价格一直在 7% 的窄幅区间内盘整，这表明在近期飙升至 92,248 美元的历史新高后，将进入消化期。

Despite the limited directional movement, derivatives markets have been signaling a high level of bullishness among professional traders, who are apparently unfazed by the recent failure to breach the $92,000 resistance level multiple times.

尽管方向性变动有限，但衍生品市场一直在专业交易员中发出高度看涨的信号，他们显然对最近未能多次突破 92,000 美元阻力位感到不安。

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: LaevitasOne key metric to gauge traders’ sentiment in the options market is the 30-day delta skew, which has dropped to its lowest level in four months. This reading indicates that the market is pricing a steeper discount for put (sell) options.

Deribit 的比特币 30 天期权 25% 倾斜（看跌期权）。资料来源：Laevitas 衡量期权市场交易者情绪的一个关键指标是 30 天 Delta 偏差，该偏差已降至四个月以来的最低水平。该读数表明市场正在为看跌（卖出）期权定价更大的折扣。

Levels below -6% typically suggest bullish sentiment and reflect confidence in the $87,000 support level, particularly from market makers, whales and arbitrage desks.

低于 -6% 的水平通常表明看涨情绪，并反映出对 87,000 美元支撑位的信心，特别是来自做市商、鲸鱼和套利部门的信心。

While such data suggests optimism, it does not guarantee that investors are confident the bull market will continue, especially after the recent 25% directional move over the past 30 days. Hence, it is crucial to analyze the factors driving recent momentum.

虽然这些数据显示出乐观情绪，但并不能保证投资者对牛市将持续充满信心，尤其是在过去 30 天内出现 25% 的定向波动之后。因此，分析推动近期势头的因素至关重要。

For example, if analysts conclude that MicroStrategy is the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge to a new all-time high, signs should be visible in BTC futures and margin markets.

例如，如果分析师得出结论，MicroStrategy 是比特币飙升至历史新高的主要催化剂，那么比特币期货和保证金市场上应该可以看到迹象。

Is MicroStrategy the sole driver behind Bitcoin’s bull run?The speculation that a few entities are largely responsible for the buying activity above the $87,000 level gained further traction on Nov. 18 after MicroStrategy revealed an additional purchase of 51,780 BTC.

MicroStrategy 是比特币牛市背后的唯一推动者吗？在 MicroStrategy 透露额外购买了 51,780 个 BTC 后，11 月 18 日，关于少数实体对 87,000 美元以上的购买活动负有主要责任的猜测进一步受到关注。

According to an SEC filing, the company now holds over $29 billion in Bitcoin and is actively pursuing a plan to raise $21 billion through the issuance and sale of company shares.

根据 SEC 的文件，该公司目前持有超过 290 亿美元的比特币，并正在积极推行通过发行和出售公司股票筹集 210 亿美元的计划。

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In comparison, investors should expect to see signs of continued price appreciation if spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) net inflows show early signs of adoption, including increased exposure from pension funds and large hedge fund managers.

相比之下，如果现货 BTC 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 净流入显示出采用的早期迹象，包括养老基金和大型对冲基金经理的敞口增加，投资者应该会看到价格持续上涨的迹象。

However, the latest data from Nov. 14 and 15 revealed $771 million in net ETF outflows as investors decided to take profits following the recent rally.

然而，11 月 14 日至 15 日的最新数据显示，由于投资者在近期反弹后决定获利了结，ETF 净流出达 7.71 亿美元。

To understand how professional traders are positioned, it’s essential to analyze Bitcoin futures and margin markets. For instance, sustained demand for leveraged BTC futures indicates bullish sentiment, while increased use of price hedging suggests whales and arbitrage desks lack confidence in the current price momentum.

要了解专业交易者的定位，有必要分析比特币期货和保证金市场。例如，对杠杆比特币期货的持续需求表明看涨情绪，而价格对冲的增加表明鲸鱼和套利平台对当前的价格势头缺乏信心。

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: LaevitasThe Bitcoin two-month futures premium (basis rate) surged to 17% on Nov. 18, far exceeding the 5%–10% neutral threshold. This level of optimism was last observed almost eight months ago, in late March, when Bitcoin successfully defended the $64,000 level after two weeks of downward pressure.

比特币 2 个月期货年化溢价。资料来源：Laevitas 11 月 18 日，比特币两个月期期货溢价（基差率）飙升至 17%，远超 5%–10% 的中性门槛。这种乐观情绪上次出现在大约八个月前，即 3 月底，当时比特币在经历两周的下行压力后成功守住了 64,000 美元的水平。

To further assess traders’ sentiment, it’s essential to analyze BTC margin markets. Unlike derivatives contracts, which always require a buyer and a seller, margin markets allow traders to borrow stablecoins to buy spot Bitcoin. Similarly, bearish traders can borrow BTC to create short positions, betting on a price decline.

为了进一步评估交易者的情绪，有必要分析比特币保证金市场。与总是需要买方和卖方的衍生品合约不同，保证金市场允许交易者借入稳定币来购买现货比特币。同样，看跌交易者可以借用 BTC 来创建空头头寸，押注价格下跌。

Related: ‘I put most of my wealth into Bitcoin, so I am fully committed’ — RFK Jr.Bitcoin margin long-to-short ratio at OKX. Source: OKXCurrently, the Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio at OKX is 14 times in favor of longs (buyers). Historically, periods of excessive confidence have driven the indicator above 40 times, while levels below 5 times favoring longs are generally considered bearish.

相关：“我将大部分财富投入比特币，所以我全力投入”——RFK Jr. OKX 的比特币保证金多空比率。来源：OKX 目前，OKX 的比特币多空保证金比率为 14 倍，有利于多头（买家）。从历史上看，过度信心时期已将该指标推至 40 倍以上，而低于 5 倍的水平则有利于多头，通常被认为是看跌。

Ultimately, Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets signal strong bullish momentum, regardless of the concentration of buy-side activity driven by MicroStrategy. The lack of a significant impact from the retest of the $88,700 level on Nov. 17 further suggests that investors are not ready to exit at the first negative price swing.

最终，无论 MicroStrategy 驱动的买方活动如何集中，比特币衍生品和保证金市场都显示出强劲的看涨势头。 11 月 17 日重新测试 88,700 美元水平没有产生重大影响，这进一步表明投资者尚未准备好在第一次负价格波动时退出。