比特幣 (BTC) 價格盤整顯示市場信心，衍生性商品顯示看漲情緒

自 11 月 12 日以來，比特幣 (BTC) 的交易價格一直在 7% 的窄幅區間內波動，預示著一段時期將在 91,000 美元附近盤整。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been largely consolidating within a narrow 7% range since Nov. 12, signaling a period of digestion following the recent surge to a new all-time high at $92,248.

自 11 月 12 日以來，比特幣 (BTC) 價格一直在 7% 的窄幅區間內盤整，這表明在近期飆升至 92,248 美元的歷史新高後，將進入消化期。

Despite the limited directional movement, derivatives markets have been signaling a high level of bullishness among professional traders, who are apparently unfazed by the recent failure to breach the $92,000 resistance level multiple times.

儘管方向性變動有限，但衍生性商品市場一直在專業交易員中發出高度看漲的信號，他們顯然對最近未能多次突破 92,000 美元阻力位感到不安。

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: LaevitasOne key metric to gauge traders’ sentiment in the options market is the 30-day delta skew, which has dropped to its lowest level in four months. This reading indicates that the market is pricing a steeper discount for put (sell) options.

Deribit 的比特幣 30 天選擇權 25% 傾斜（賣權）。資料來源：Laevitas 衡量選擇權市場交易者情緒的關鍵指標是 30 天 Delta 偏差，該偏差已降至四個月以來的最低水平。該讀數表明市場正在為看跌（賣出）期權定價更大的折扣。

Levels below -6% typically suggest bullish sentiment and reflect confidence in the $87,000 support level, particularly from market makers, whales and arbitrage desks.

低於 -6% 的水平通常表示看漲情緒，並反映出對 87,000 美元支撐位的信心，特別是來自做市商、鯨魚和套利部門的信心。

While such data suggests optimism, it does not guarantee that investors are confident the bull market will continue, especially after the recent 25% directional move over the past 30 days. Hence, it is crucial to analyze the factors driving recent momentum.

雖然這些數據顯示出樂觀情緒，但並不能保證投資者對多頭市場將持續充滿信心，尤其是在過去 30 天內出現 25% 的定向波動之後。因此，分析推動近期動能的因素至關重要。

For example, if analysts conclude that MicroStrategy is the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge to a new all-time high, signs should be visible in BTC futures and margin markets.

例如，如果分析師得出結論，MicroStrategy 是比特幣飆升至歷史新高的主要催化劑，那麼比特幣期貨和保證金市場上應該可以看到跡象。

Is MicroStrategy the sole driver behind Bitcoin’s bull run?The speculation that a few entities are largely responsible for the buying activity above the $87,000 level gained further traction on Nov. 18 after MicroStrategy revealed an additional purchase of 51,780 BTC.

MicroStrategy 是比特幣牛市背後的唯一推動者嗎？

According to an SEC filing, the company now holds over $29 billion in Bitcoin and is actively pursuing a plan to raise $21 billion through the issuance and sale of company shares.

根據 SEC 的文件，該公司目前持有超過 290 億美元的比特幣，並積極推行透過發行和出售公司股票籌集 210 億美元的計畫。

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In comparison, investors should expect to see signs of continued price appreciation if spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) net inflows show early signs of adoption, including increased exposure from pension funds and large hedge fund managers.

相較之下，如果現貨 BTC 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 淨流入顯示出採用的早期跡象，包括退休基金和大型對沖基金經理人的曝險增加，投資者應該會看到價格持續上漲的跡象。

However, the latest data from Nov. 14 and 15 revealed $771 million in net ETF outflows as investors decided to take profits following the recent rally.

然而，11 月 14 日至 15 日的最新數據顯示，由於投資者在近期反彈後決定獲利了結，ETF 淨流出達 7.71 億美元。

To understand how professional traders are positioned, it’s essential to analyze Bitcoin futures and margin markets. For instance, sustained demand for leveraged BTC futures indicates bullish sentiment, while increased use of price hedging suggests whales and arbitrage desks lack confidence in the current price momentum.

要了解專業交易者的定位，有必要分析比特幣期貨和保證金市場。例如，對槓桿比特幣期貨的持續需求表明看漲情緒，而價格對沖的增加表明鯨魚和套利平台對當前的價格勢頭缺乏信心。

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: LaevitasThe Bitcoin two-month futures premium (basis rate) surged to 17% on Nov. 18, far exceeding the 5%–10% neutral threshold. This level of optimism was last observed almost eight months ago, in late March, when Bitcoin successfully defended the $64,000 level after two weeks of downward pressure.

比特幣 2 個月期貨年化溢價。資料來源：Laevitas 11 月 18 日，比特幣兩個月期期貨溢價（基差率）飆升至 17%，遠超 5%–10% 的中性門檻。這種樂觀情緒上次出現在大約八個月前，即 3 月底，當時比特幣在經歷兩週的下行壓力後成功守住了 64,000 美元的水平。

To further assess traders’ sentiment, it’s essential to analyze BTC margin markets. Unlike derivatives contracts, which always require a buyer and a seller, margin markets allow traders to borrow stablecoins to buy spot Bitcoin. Similarly, bearish traders can borrow BTC to create short positions, betting on a price decline.

為了進一步評估交易者的情緒，有必要分析比特幣保證金市場。與總是需要買方和賣方的衍生性合約不同，保證金市場允許交易者藉入穩定幣來購買現貨比特幣。同樣，看跌交易者可以藉用 BTC 來創建空頭頭寸，押注價格下跌。

Related: ‘I put most of my wealth into Bitcoin, so I am fully committed’ — RFK Jr.Bitcoin margin long-to-short ratio at OKX. Source: OKXCurrently, the Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio at OKX is 14 times in favor of longs (buyers). Historically, periods of excessive confidence have driven the indicator above 40 times, while levels below 5 times favoring longs are generally considered bearish.

相關：「我將大部分財富投入比特幣，所以我全力投入」—RFK Jr. OKX 的比特幣保證金多空比率。來源：OKX 目前，OKX 的比特幣多空保證金比率為 14 倍，有利於多頭（買家）。從歷史上看，過度信心時期已將該指標推至 40 倍以上，而低於 5 倍的水平則有利於多頭，通常被認為是看跌。

Ultimately, Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets signal strong bullish momentum, regardless of the concentration of buy-side activity driven by MicroStrategy. The lack of a significant impact from the retest of the $88,700 level on Nov. 17 further suggests that investors are not ready to exit at the first negative price swing.

最終，無論 MicroStrategy 驅動的買方活動如何集中，比特幣衍生性商品和保證金市場都顯示出強勁的看漲勢頭。 11 月 17 日重新測試 88,700 美元水準沒有產生重大影響，這進一步表明投資者尚未準備好在第一次負價格波動時退出。