比特币（BTC）价格反弹让交易员在辩论牛市是否回来了

经过一个急剧的多周抛售，将比特币从100,000美元拖到低于80,000美元以下之后，最近的价格反弹使交易者辩论比特币牛市是否真正恢复了正轨，或者这仅仅是熊市在下一个宏观腿较高之前集会。

Bitcoin price slid sharply in March, trading down from highs above $100,000 to lows below $80,000 as the cryptocurrency market encountered strong headwinds.

3月，比特币价格急剧下跌，由于加密货币市场遇到强大的逆风，从高于100,000美元的高价交易到低于80,000美元的低点。

Recent price action has seen some strength return, and Bitcoin may now be setting up for a continuation of its bull market, according to blockchain analytics firm Glass Node.

根据区块链分析公司Glass Node的说法，最近的价格行动已经有了一定的力量回报，比特币现在可能正在延续其牛市。

Bitcoin’s Local Bottom Or Bull Market Pause?

比特币的本地底部还是牛市停顿？

Bitcoin’s latest correction was deep enough to rattle confidence but shallow enough to maintain macro trend structure.

比特币的最新更正足够深，足以使其充满信心，但足以维持宏观趋势结构。

Price seems to have set a local bottom between $76K-$77K, and several reliable metrics are beginning to solidify the local lows and point towards further upside.

Price似乎已经将本地底部设定在7.6万美元至7.7k美元之间，而几个可靠的指标开始巩固本地低点并指向进一步的上升空间。

One of the most valuable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles is the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL). As price fell, NUPL dropped into "Anxiety" territory. However, following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the "Belief" zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.

跨比特币周期中最有价值的情感量表之一是未实现的盈利和损失（NUPL）。当价格下降时，Nupl跌入了“焦虑”领域。但是，在反弹之后，NUPL现在收回了“信仰”区域，这是一个关键的情感转变，历史上在宏观高低处看到。

The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple compares BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long-term holder behavior.

销毁的价值天数（VDD）将硬币年龄和交易规模的BTC支出与以前的平均平均水平进行了比较，从而深入了解了长期持有人行为。

Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016/17 and 2020/21 bull cycles.

当前的读数已重置为低水平，表明没有移动大型硬币。这是智能货币信念的明显信号。类似的动态在2016/17和2020/21 Bull Cycles的主要价格集会之前。

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Boost Bull Market

比特币长期持有人增强了牛市

We're also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels.

现在，我们也看到长期持有人的供应开始攀升。在利润超过$ 10万美元之后，长期参与者现在正在以较低的水平重新累积。

Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.

从历史上看，这些积累阶段为供应挤压和随后的抛物线价格行动奠定了基础。

The Hash Ribbons Indicator is also signaling a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has typically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals.

哈希丝带指标还标志着看涨的跨界，其中短期哈希速率趋势移动高于长期平均值。该信号通常与底部和趋势逆转对齐。

Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.

鉴于矿工的行为倾向于反映盈利能力的预期，因此这一十字架表明矿工现在对未来价格更高的价格充满信心。

Hash Ribbons signals are not perfect and can sometimes lead to false signals. However, in the current market context, this crossover provides further evidence that the bear market may be nearing its end.

哈希丝带信号不是完美的，有时会导致虚假信号。但是，在当前市场的情况下，这种跨界提供了进一步的证据，表明熊市可能快要结束了。

Bitcoin Is Still Closely Tied To Macro Trends

比特币仍然与宏观趋势紧密相关

Despite the bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500.

尽管看涨链上的数据，但比特币仍与宏流动性趋势和股票市场，尤其是标准普尔500指数密切相关。

For as long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment and liquidity flows.

只要这种相关性成立，BTC将部分受到全球货币政策，风险情绪和流动性流动的摆布。

While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.

虽然降低的期望有助于风险资产反弹，但任何急剧的逆转都可能导致比特币的新切碎。

Bitcoin: A Deep Breakdown Of Key On-Chain Trends

比特币：关键的链链趋势的深刻崩溃

From a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle.

从数据驱动的角度来看，比特币看起来越来越良好，以持续延续其牛周期。

On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of resilience for the Bitcoin bull market. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has shifted from “Anxiety” during the dip to the “Belief” zone after the rebound—a transition often seen at macro higher lows.

链上指标描绘了比特币牛市的韧性的引人注目的图片。未实现的盈利和损失（NUPL）已经从倾倒后的“焦虑”转变为“信念”区域后，经常在宏观高低处看到一次过渡。

Similarly, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple has reset to levels signaling conviction among long-term holders, a pattern observed in prior bull markets, notably during the 2016/17 and 2020/21 rallies.

同样，被破坏的价值天数（VDD）倍数重置为长期持有人的信号信念，这是在先前的牛市中观察到的模式，特别是在2016/17和2020/21集会期间。

This strength is evident in the Long Term Holder Supply, which is incrementally increasing as these participants capitalize on lower prices to build positions.

长期持有人的供应中，这种优势是显而易见的，随着这些参与者资本利用较低的价格以建立头寸，这一优势正在逐步增加。

Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the stage for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.

从历史上看，这些积累阶段为供应压缩和随后的抛物线价格行动奠定了基础。

Moreover, the Hash Ribbons Indicator just completed a bullish crossover, suggesting miner confidence in higher prices ahead, a signal usually seen at trend reversals.

此外，哈希丝带指标刚刚完成了看涨的跨界，这表明矿工对提高价格的信心是通常在趋势逆转下看到的信号。

However, this strength is not necessarily indicating immediate weakness. Rather, it suggests that the worst of the bear market may have passed, paving the way for a continuation of the bull market.

但是，这种力量不一定表明立即无力。相反，这表明熊市最糟糕的市场可能已经过去，为牛市的延续铺平了道路。

Macro conditions still warrant caution, as the Bitcoin bull market doesn't operate in isolation. Bull markets take time to build momentum, often needing steady accumulation and favorable conditions to ignite the next leg higher.

宏情况仍然需要谨慎，因为比特币牛市不会孤立运作。牛市需要时间来建立势头，通常需要稳定的积累和有利的条件，以更高地点。

While the local bottom between $76K-$77K seems to hold, the path forward won’t likely feature vertical candles of peak euphoria yet.

虽然本地底部在$ 76K- $ 77K之间似乎持有，但前进的道路尚不可能以高峰欣快的垂直蜡烛为特色。

Bitcoin’s tie to the S&P 500 and global liquidity trends means volatility could emerge from shifts in monetary policy or risk sentiment. For instance, while rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any abrupt reversal—perhaps from inflation spikes or geopolitical shocks—could test Bitcoin’s stability.

比特币与标准普尔500指数和全球流动性趋势的关系意味着波动率可能来自货币政策或风险情绪的转变。例如，虽然降低的期望有助于风险资产反弹，但任何突然的逆转（也许是由于通货膨胀率或地缘政治冲击）都可以测试比特币的稳定性。

Thus, even with on-chain data signaling a robust setup, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will likely unfold in measured steps. Traders anticipating a return to six-figure prices will need patience as the market builds its foundation.

因此，即使链上数据信号是强大的设置，比特币牛市的下一阶段也可能会以测量的步骤进行。预计在市场建立基金会的情况下，预计将重返六位数的价格将需要耐心。