比特幣（BTC）價格反彈讓交易員在辯論牛市是否回來了

經過一個急劇的多周拋售，將比特幣從100,000美元拖到低於80,000美元以下之後，最近的價格反彈使交易者辯論比特幣牛市是否真正恢復了正軌，或者這僅僅是熊市在下一個宏觀腿較高之前集會。

Bitcoin price slid sharply in March, trading down from highs above $100,000 to lows below $80,000 as the cryptocurrency market encountered strong headwinds.

3月，比特幣價格急劇下跌，由於加密貨幣市場遇到強大的逆風，從高於100,000美元的高價交易到低於80,000美元的低點。

Recent price action has seen some strength return, and Bitcoin may now be setting up for a continuation of its bull market, according to blockchain analytics firm Glass Node.

根據區塊鏈分析公司Glass Node的說法，最近的價格行動已經有了一定的力量回報，比特幣現在可能正在延續其牛市。

Bitcoin’s Local Bottom Or Bull Market Pause?

比特幣的本地底部還是牛市停頓？

Bitcoin’s latest correction was deep enough to rattle confidence but shallow enough to maintain macro trend structure.

比特幣的最新更正足夠深，足以使其充滿信心，但足以維持宏觀趨勢結構。

Price seems to have set a local bottom between $76K-$77K, and several reliable metrics are beginning to solidify the local lows and point towards further upside.

Price似乎已經將本地底部設定在7.6萬美元至7.7k美元之間，而幾個可靠的指標開始鞏固本地低點並指向進一步的上升空間。

One of the most valuable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles is the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL). As price fell, NUPL dropped into "Anxiety" territory. However, following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the "Belief" zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.

跨比特幣週期中最有價值的情感量表之一是未實現的盈利和損失（NUPL）。當價格下降時，Nupl跌入了“焦慮”領域。但是，在反彈之後，NUPL現在收回了“信仰”區域，這是一個關鍵的情感轉變，歷史上在宏觀高低處看到。

The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple compares BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long-term holder behavior.

銷毀的價值天數（VDD）將硬幣年齡和交易規模的BTC支出與以前的平均平均水平進行了比較，從而深入了解了長期持有人行為。

Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016/17 and 2020/21 bull cycles.

當前的讀數已重置為低水平，表明沒有移動大型硬幣。這是智能貨幣信念的明顯信號。類似的動態在2016/17和2020/21 Bull Cycles的主要價格集會之前。

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Boost Bull Market

比特幣長期持有人增強了牛市

We're also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels.

現在，我們也看到長期持有人的供應開始攀升。在利潤超過$ 10萬美元之後，長期參與者現在正在以較低的水平重新累積。

Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.

從歷史上看，這些積累階段為供應擠壓和隨後的拋物線價格行動奠定了基礎。

The Hash Ribbons Indicator is also signaling a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has typically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals.

哈希絲帶指標還標誌著看漲的跨界，其中短期哈希速率趨勢移動高於長期平均值。該信號通常與底部和趨勢逆轉對齊。

Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.

鑑於礦工的行為傾向於反映盈利能力的預期，因此這一十字架表明礦工現在對未來價格更高的價格充滿信心。

Hash Ribbons signals are not perfect and can sometimes lead to false signals. However, in the current market context, this crossover provides further evidence that the bear market may be nearing its end.

哈希絲帶信號不是完美的，有時會導致虛假信號。但是，在當前市場的情況下，這種跨界提供了進一步的證據，表明熊市可能快要結束了。

Bitcoin Is Still Closely Tied To Macro Trends

比特幣仍然與宏觀趨勢緊密相關

Despite the bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500.

儘管看漲鏈上的數據，但比特幣仍與宏流動性趨勢和股票市場，尤其是標準普爾500指數密切相關。

For as long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment and liquidity flows.

只要這種相關性成立，BTC將部分受到全球貨幣政策，風險情緒和流動性流動的擺佈。

While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.

雖然降低的期望有助於風險資產反彈，但任何急劇的逆轉都可能導致比特幣的新切碎。

Bitcoin: A Deep Breakdown Of Key On-Chain Trends

比特幣：關鍵的鍊鍊趨勢的深刻崩潰

From a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle.

從數據驅動的角度來看，比特幣看起來越來越良好，以持續延續其牛週期。

On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of resilience for the Bitcoin bull market. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has shifted from “Anxiety” during the dip to the “Belief” zone after the rebound—a transition often seen at macro higher lows.

鏈上指標描繪了比特幣牛市的韌性的引人注目的圖片。未實現的盈利和損失（NUPL）已經從傾倒後的“焦慮”轉變為“信念”區域後，經常在宏觀高低處看到一次過渡。

Similarly, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple has reset to levels signaling conviction among long-term holders, a pattern observed in prior bull markets, notably during the 2016/17 and 2020/21 rallies.

同樣，被破壞的價值天數（VDD）倍數重置為長期持有人的信號信念，這是在先前的牛市中觀察到的模式，特別是在2016/17和2020/21集會期間。

This strength is evident in the Long Term Holder Supply, which is incrementally increasing as these participants capitalize on lower prices to build positions.

長期持有人的供應在長期持有人的供應中很明顯，隨著這些參與者利用較低的價格以建立頭寸，這一優勢正在逐步增加。

Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the stage for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.

從歷史上看，這些積累階段為供應壓縮和隨後的拋物線價格行動奠定了基礎。

Moreover, the Hash Ribbons Indicator just completed a bullish crossover, suggesting miner confidence in higher prices ahead, a signal usually seen at trend reversals.

此外，哈希絲帶指標剛剛完成了看漲的跨界，這表明礦工對提高價格的信心是通常在趨勢逆轉下看到的信號。

However, this strength is not necessarily indicating immediate weakness. Rather, it suggests that the worst of the bear market may have passed, paving the way for a continuation of the bull market.

但是，這種力量不一定表明立即無力。相反，這表明熊市最糟糕的市場可能已經過去，為牛市的延續鋪平了道路。

Macro conditions still warrant caution, as the Bitcoin bull market doesn't operate in isolation. Bull markets take time to build momentum, often needing steady accumulation and favorable conditions to ignite the next leg higher.

宏情況仍然需要謹慎，因為比特幣牛市不會孤立運作。牛市需要時間來建立勢頭，通常需要穩定的積累和有利的條件，以更高地點。

While the local bottom between $76K-$77K seems to hold, the path forward won’t likely feature vertical candles of peak euphoria yet.

雖然本地底部在$ 76K- $ 77K之間似乎持有，但前進的道路尚不可能以高峰欣快的垂直蠟燭為特色。

Bitcoin’s tie to the S&P 500 and global liquidity trends means volatility could emerge from shifts in monetary policy or risk sentiment. For instance, while rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any abrupt reversal—perhaps from inflation spikes or geopolitical shocks—could test Bitcoin’s stability.

比特幣與標準普爾500指數和全球流動性趨勢的關係意味著波動率可能來自貨幣政策或風險情緒的轉變。例如，雖然降低的期望有助於風險資產反彈，但任何突然的逆轉（也許是由於通貨膨脹率或地緣政治衝擊）都可以測試比特幣的穩定性。

Thus, even with on-chain data signaling a robust setup, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will likely unfold in measured steps. Traders anticipating a return to six-figure prices will need patience as the market builds its foundation.

因此，即使鏈上數據信號是強大的設置，比特幣牛市的下一階段也可能會以測量的步驟進行。預計在市場建立基金會的情況下，預計將重返六位數的價格將需要耐心。