Bitcoin (BTC) Price Bounce Has Traders Debating Whether the Bull Market Is Back

Following a sharp multi-week selloff that dragged Bitcoin from above $100,000 to below $80,000, the recent price bounce has traders debating whether the Bitcoin bull market is truly back on track or if this is merely a bear market rally before the next macro leg higher.

Bitcoin price slid sharply in March, trading down from highs above $100,000 to lows below $80,000 as the cryptocurrency market encountered strong headwinds.

Recent price action has seen some strength return, and Bitcoin may now be setting up for a continuation of its bull market, according to blockchain analytics firm Glass Node.

Bitcoin’s Local Bottom Or Bull Market Pause?

Bitcoin’s latest correction was deep enough to rattle confidence but shallow enough to maintain macro trend structure.

Price seems to have set a local bottom between $76K-$77K, and several reliable metrics are beginning to solidify the local lows and point towards further upside.

One of the most valuable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles is the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL). As price fell, NUPL dropped into "Anxiety" territory. However, following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the "Belief" zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.

The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple compares BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long-term holder behavior.

Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016/17 and 2020/21 bull cycles.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Boost Bull Market

We're also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels.

Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.

The Hash Ribbons Indicator is also signaling a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has typically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals.

Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.

Hash Ribbons signals are not perfect and can sometimes lead to false signals. However, in the current market context, this crossover provides further evidence that the bear market may be nearing its end.

Bitcoin Is Still Closely Tied To Macro Trends

Despite the bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500.

For as long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment and liquidity flows.

While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin: A Deep Breakdown Of Key On-Chain Trends

From a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle.

On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of resilience for the Bitcoin bull market. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has shifted from “Anxiety” during the dip to the “Belief” zone after the rebound—a transition often seen at macro higher lows.

Similarly, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple has reset to levels signaling conviction among long-term holders, a pattern observed in prior bull markets, notably during the 2016/17 and 2020/21 rallies.

This strength is evident in the Long Term Holder Supply, which is incrementally increasing as these participants capitalize on lower prices to build positions.

Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the stage for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.

Moreover, the Hash Ribbons Indicator just completed a bullish crossover, suggesting miner confidence in higher prices ahead, a signal usually seen at trend reversals.

However, this strength is not necessarily indicating immediate weakness. Rather, it suggests that the worst of the bear market may have passed, paving the way for a continuation of the bull market.

Macro conditions still warrant caution, as the Bitcoin bull market doesn't operate in isolation. Bull markets take time to build momentum, often needing steady accumulation and favorable conditions to ignite the next leg higher.

While the local bottom between $76K-$77K seems to hold, the path forward won’t likely feature vertical candles of peak euphoria yet.

Bitcoin’s tie to the S&P 500 and global liquidity trends means volatility could emerge from shifts in monetary policy or risk sentiment. For instance, while rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any abrupt reversal—perhaps from inflation spikes or geopolitical shocks—could test Bitcoin’s stability.

Thus, even with on-chain data signaling a robust setup, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will likely unfold in measured steps. Traders anticipating a return to six-figure prices will need patience as the market builds its foundation.