比特币 (BTC) 价格分析：美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 关于 2025 年降息和货币政策的言论导致市场波动，比特币跌破 10 万美元

随着2025年圣诞节和元旦的临近，随着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔关于2025年降息和货币政策的言论，比特币出现波动。请查看下面 Pintu 交易团队的宏观和加密货币分析。

As Christmas and New Year’s Day 2025 approach, Bitcoin volatility followed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks on 2025 interest rate cuts and monetary policies.

随着2025年圣诞节和元旦的临近，随着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔关于2025年降息和货币政策的言论，比特币出现波动。

Here's a macro and crypto analysis by the Pintu trader team.

以下是 Pintu 交易团队的宏观和加密货币分析。

Market Analysis Summary

市场分析总结

Macroeconomic Analysis

宏观经济分析

Fed Funds Rate

联邦基金利率

Markets anticipated the Fed's 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%. However, Powell's comments hinted at a possible shift to rate hikes next year.

市场预期美联储降息25个基点，目标区间至4.25%-4.50%。然而，鲍威尔的言论暗示明年可能转向加息。

This "hawkish cut" led to a swift market response: the dollar surged to a two-year high, stocks fell sharply, and Treasury yields spiked. While markets can overreact on such days, the Fed's statement, revised projections, and Powell's remarks provided ample reasoning for these movements.

这次“鹰派降息”引发了市场的迅速反应：美元飙升至两年高位，股市大幅下跌，国债收益率飙升。尽管市场在这些日子可能反应过度，但美联储的声明、修订后的预测以及鲍威尔的言论为这些走势提供了充分的理由。

One key factor was the lack of unanimity in the decision, with Cleveland Fed President dissenting. Powell also described the rate cut as a “closer call” compared to recent decisions and noted that monetary policy is now “significantly less restrictive” and approaching “neutral.”

一个关键因素是这一决定缺乏一致意见，克利夫兰联储主席表示反对。鲍威尔还将降息描述为与最近的决定相比“千钧一发”，并指出货币政策现在“限制性明显减少”并接近“中性”。

Policymakers raised their median inflation outlook for 2025 to 2.5% (up from 2.1%), increased the long-run neutral interest rate to a six-year high of 3.0%, and reduced the number of projected rate cuts next year from four to two. Despite these revisions, rates markets are skeptical, pricing in only 35 basis points of cuts next year and virtually no additional easing thereafter, essentially challenging the Fed's projections.

政策制定者将 2025 年通胀预期中值上调至 2.5%（从 2.1% 上调），将长期中性利率上调至六年高点 3.0%，并将明年预计降息次数从 4 次减少到 2 次。尽管做出了这些调整，利率市场仍持怀疑态度，预计明年仅降息 35 个基点，此后几乎没有进一步放松政策，这从本质上挑战了美联储的预测。

This skepticism stems from an apparent inconsistency in the Fed's outlook: it expects inflation to remain higher than previously forecast yet plans to cut rates. Powell faced tough questions on this logic during his press conference, as the stance appears harder to justify given the Fed's relatively stable projections for economic growth and employment, which are expected to remain strong through 2026.

这种怀疑源于美联储前景的明显不一致：它预计通胀率将继续高于先前的预测，但计划降息。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上对这一逻辑提出了尖锐的质疑，因为鉴于美联储对经济增长和就业的相对稳定的预测（预计到 2026 年将保持强劲），这一立场似乎更难以证明其合理性。

Just a year after Powell's dovish pivot, markets are now entertaining the prospect of a hawkish reversal.

鲍威尔转向鸽派仅仅一年后，市场现在就开始期待鹰派逆转的前景。

Interest rate markets currently anticipate an extended pause, with the next rate cut not fully priced in until September 2025. However, external factors, such as the return of President-elect Donald Trump and potential tariff-driven inflation, could complicate the Fed's plans. Economist Phil Suttle predicts that rising inflation in the second quarter of 2025 might force the Fed to hike rates by July.

利率市场目前预计利率将长期暂停，下一次降息要到 2025 年 9 月才能完全消化。然而，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的回归和潜在的关税驱动的通胀等外部因素可能会使美联储的计划复杂化。经济学家 Phil Suttle 预测，2025 年第二季度通胀上升可能迫使美联储在 7 月前加息。

Although Powell dismissed the idea of a rate hike next year as unlikely, recent financial market movements suggest otherwise. The dollar has risen 8% since the Fed's first rate cut in September, and Treasury yields have climbed 80 basis points, indicating that parts of the financial market are already bracing for tighter policy.

尽管鲍威尔认为明年加息的可能性不大，但最近的金融市场走势表明情况并非如此。自美联储9月首次降息以来，美元已上涨8%，美国国债收益率已攀升80个基点，表明部分金融市场已经为收紧政策做好准备。

Other Economic Indicators

其他经济指标

BTC Price Analysis

比特币价格分析

The broader cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with BTC experiencing a significant setback. The leading cryptocurrency recently dipped below the $100,000 mark amid heightened selling pressure across financial markets, including digital assets. This decline closely followed the Fed's decision to cut interest rates and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's subsequent remarks.

更广泛的加密货币市场仍然波动，比特币经历了重大挫折。由于包括数字资产在内的金融市场抛售压力加大，这种领先的加密货币最近跌破 10 万美元大关。此次下跌紧随美联储降息决定和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔随后的讲话之后。

BTC had previously rallied strongly following Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, with hopes of a pro-crypto regulatory environment under the new administration. Institutional interest also surged, as evidenced by substantial inflows into the BTC ETF.

特朗普在美国总统大选中获胜后，比特币曾强劲反弹，希望新政府领导下有利于加密货币的监管环境。机构兴趣也激增，大量资金流入 BTC ETF 就证明了这一点。

However, this week's downturn has raised concerns. BTC's fall below $100,000 signals widespread selling pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened financial market volatility.

然而，本周的低迷引发了人们的担忧。 BTC 跌破 10 万美元表明，在宏观经济不确定性和金融市场波动加剧的情况下，抛售压力普遍存在。

The Fed recently announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, aligning with market expectations and providing short-term optimism. However, comments from Jerome Powell tempered sentiment. Powell indicated the Fed might slow the pace of rate cuts in the coming year. Moreover, the Fed halved its projected number of rate cuts for 2025, reducing them from four to two, further dampening market confidence and contributing to Bitcoin's sell-off.

美联储最近宣布降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期并带来短期乐观情绪。然而，杰罗姆·鲍威尔的言论缓和了市场情绪。鲍威尔表示，美联储明年可能会放缓降息步伐。此外，美联储将 2025 年降息的预期次数减少了一半，从四次减少到两次，进一步打击了市场信心并导致比特币遭到抛售。

Despite this short-term pullback, analysts remain optimistic. Many believe BTC is positioned for a recovery, citing positive market developments. For instance, reports suggest the U.S. is considering establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, boosting investor confidence. Similarly, EU leaders are exploring similar initiatives, which could further support market sentiment.

尽管出现短期回调，但分析师仍保持乐观。许多人认为，由于市场的积极发展，比特币已经做好了复苏的准备。例如，有报道称美国正在考虑建立比特币战略储备，以提振投资者信心。同样，欧盟领导人正在探索类似的举措，这可能会进一步支撑市场情绪。

Overall, while short-term volatility persists, underlying market developments and institutional support suggest potential for Bitcoin’s recovery in the near future.

总体而言，虽然短期波动持续存在，但基础市场发展和机构支持表明比特币在不久的将来有复苏的潜力。

Bitcoin is currently trading at its 21-day EMA, which aligns with the $100K price level. This pullback serves as a much-needed correction following its aggressive rally over the past month. The key resistance level lies at $106K; a clear breakout above this resistance could position BTC to enter a new price range.

比特币目前的交易价格为 21 天均线，与 10 万美元的价格水平一致。此次回调是继过去一个月大幅上涨之后急需的修正。关键阻力位为 106,000 美元；明显突破该阻力位可能会使 BTC 进入新的价格区间。

On-Chain Analysis

链上分析

News About Altcoins

关于山寨币的新闻

News from the Crypto World in the Past Week

过去一周加密世界的新闻

Crypto

加密货币