2025 年加密货币预测：RWA 代币化扩展、人工智能和加密货币互连

2024 年是加密货币历史上最积极的事件之一，其中三个关键事件可能会被铭记

2024 has seen some of the most positive developments ever in the history of crypto, with three key occurrences that are likely to be remembered as particularly significant. First, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs back in January, followed also by spot ETH ETFs mid-year. Second, the election in November of a US president who is openly supportive of crypto and has clearly signalling a crypto-friendly approach, and third, bitcoin in December breaking the milestone $100,000 price target.

2024 年见证了加密货币历史上一些最积极的发展，其中三个关键事件可能会被认为特别重要。首先，在一月份推出现货比特币 ETF，随后在年中推出现货 ETH ETF。其次，11 月当选的美国总统公开支持加密货币，并明确表示对加密货币友好的态度；第三，比特币在 12 月突破了 10 万美元的里程碑价格目标。

From that basis then, let’s look at some predictions about what may be incoming in 2025, and try to assess whether next year will be as ground-breaking for crypto as 2024 has proven to be.

在此基础上，让我们看一下对 2025 年可能发生的事情的一些预测，并尝试评估明年是否会像 2024 年那样对加密货币具有突破性意义。

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Splits OpinionSpeaking at the Bitcoin Conference 2024 back in July, Trump made pledges to stockpile bitcoin, leading to speculation about a US strategic bitcoin reserve, but is this actually viable or beneficial for the US? Currently, it still seems like a long-shot, and what’s more, it’s dividing opinion even among BTC advocates.

比特币战略储备存在分歧 早在 7 月的 2024 年比特币大会上，特朗普就承诺储备比特币，引发了人们对美国比特币战略储备的猜测，但这实际上可行或对美国有利吗？目前，这似乎仍然是一个不太可能的事情，而且，即使在 BTC 拥护者之间，意见也存在分歧。

On the one hand, we have Senator Cynthia Lummis driving momentum in favor of the idea, while at the same time, Nic Carter–who is well known for his early exposal of the alleged anti-crypto banking strategy known as Operation Choke Point 2.0–is presenting the case against establishing a bitcoin reserve strategy.

一方面，我们有参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯（Cynthia Lummis）推动这一想法的发展，而与此同时，尼克·卡特（Nic Carter）——他因早期揭露所谓的反加密银行战略（称为“Operation Choke Point 2.0”）而闻名——正在提出反对建立比特币储备策略的理由。

While we can’t yet know how this one plays out, it’s likely that debate will heat up as Donald Trump’s inauguration nears, and we might see increased reference to potential competition from other BTC-holding nations.

虽然我们还不知道这件事会如何发展，但随着唐纳德·特朗普就职典礼的临近，争论很可能会升温，而且我们可能会看到更多关于来自其他持有 BTC 国家的潜在竞争的信息。

Also, regardless of whether speculation about a bitcoin reserve actually leads to a concrete plan, there is no doubt that a firmly pro-crypto administration is on the way, with David Sacks taking on a new role as AI and Crypto Czar, Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary.

此外，无论对比特币储备的猜测是否真的会导致具体计划，毫无疑问，坚定支持加密货币的政府即将到来，大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）担任人工智能和加密货币沙皇，斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）担任新角色。财政部长，霍华德·卢特尼克担任商务部长。

ETFs Carry On From Explosive StartThe spot Bitcoin ETFs that launched in January 2024 now collectively hold over $110 billion in assets under management, while the spot Ether ETFs that followed in July have topped $12 billion in assets under management, and we can expect that this explosive start for the Bitcoin products, with Ethereum playing catch up, can continue into 2025. The case for continued growth has been bolstered also by BlackRock recently recommending up to a 2% BTC portfolio allocation, with any uncertainty around how the ETFs would perform now dispelled.

ETF 继续呈爆发式增长 2024 年 1 月推出的现货比特币 ETF 目前管理资产总额已超过 1100 亿美元，而随后 7 月份推出的现货以太坊 ETF 管理资产已突破 120 亿美元，我们可以预期这一爆炸性的增长比特币产品的起步，以太坊的追赶，可能会持续到 2025 年。贝莱德最近建议的最高 2% 的增长也支持了持续增长的理由BTC 投资组合配置，ETF 表现的任何不确定性现已消除。

There may also be changes to the ETFs themselves, with anticipation that both the Bitcoin and Ether products will alter to allow in-kind redemptions while the ETH products will incorporate staking, and these adaptations may potentially fuel increased interest, as long as the overall crypto market structure remains bullish.

ETF 本身也可能会发生变化，预计比特币和以太产品都将发生变化，以允许实物赎回，而 ETH 产品将纳入质押，只要整体加密货币的发展，这些调整可能会刺激人们的兴趣增加市场结构依然看涨。

Pro-Crypto Chair Realigns the SECRelated to the political changes outlined above, the new year–after Trump takes office–will bring a change of leadership at the SEC. Current Chair Gary Gensler is on his way out, and his departure should bring an end to the Commission’s adversarial approach to the crypto industry.

支持加密货币的主席重新调整 SEC 与上述政治变化相关，特朗普上任后的新一年将带来 SEC 领导层的变化。现任主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 即将卸任，他的离职应该会结束委员会对加密货币行业的敌对态度。

Incoming as the new Chair is Paul Atkins, as announced by Trump at the start of December. Atkins is a free-market-minded former Commissioner at the SEC and a member of crypto advocacy group Token Alliance, and the decision to appoint him was greeted with enthusiasm by crypto industry execs, including Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal, who stated,

特朗普于 12 月初宣布，保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 即将就任新任主席。阿特金斯是一位具有自由市场思想的 SEC 前委员，也是加密货币倡导组织 Token Alliance 的成员，任命他的决定受到了包括 Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal 在内的加密货币行业高管的热情欢迎，他表示：

“We appreciate his commitment to balance in regulating U.S. securities markets and look forward to his fresh leadership”.

“我们赞赏他在监管美国证券市场方面的平衡承诺，并期待他的新领导”。

This anticipated change of direction at the SEC also increases the likelihood of further crypto ETPs for various other coins, with XRP, LTC, HBAR and SOL all noted contenders for inclusion.

SEC 预期的方向变化也增加了其他各种加密货币进一步推出加密货币 ETP 的可能性，其中 XRP、LTC、HBAR 和 SOL 都是著名的竞争者。

Stable Coin Market Cap GrowsDuring 2024, the total stable coin market cap grew by almost 50% to $193 billion, and it’s plausible that this expansion continues in the new year. In fact, back in April 2024, Bernstein published a research report in which it stated that the stable coin market can reach $2.8 trillion over the next five years, alongside a prediction (according to that report) for, “Major global financial and consumer platforms to issue co-branded stable coins to power value-exchange on their platforms”.

稳定币市值增长 2024 年，稳定币总市值增长了近 50%，达到 1,930 亿美元，这种扩张在新的一年里可能会继续下去。事实上，早在 2024 年 4 月，伯恩斯坦就发布了一份研究报告，其中指出稳定币市场在未来五年内将达到 2.8 万亿美元，并预测（根据该报告）“全球主要金融和消费平台发行联名稳定币以推动其平台上的价值交换”。

Asset manager VanEck has also predicted that stable coins are set to “revolutionize payments”, with an expectation that stable coin settlement volumes will triple from current levels to hit $300 billion per day by the end of 2025, while Bitwise predicts a doubling in the stable coin market cap by the end of 2025.

资产管理公司 VanEck 还预测，稳定币将“彻底改变支付方式”，预计到 2025 年底，稳定币结算量将是目前水平的三倍，达到每天 3000 亿美元，而 Bitwise 预测稳定币结算量将翻一番。到 2025 年底，代币市值。

RWA Tokenization ExpandsThe tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) started gaining increased attention in 2024, thanks in part to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink speaking very positively, early in the

RWA 代币化扩展现实世界资产（RWA）的代币化在 2024 年开始受到越来越多的关注，这在一定程度上要归功于贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）在 2024 年早期的非常积极的讲话。