2025 年加密貨幣預測：RWA 代幣化擴展、人工智慧和加密貨幣互連

2024 年是加密貨幣歷史上最積極的事件之一，其中三個關鍵事件可能會被銘記

2024 has seen some of the most positive developments ever in the history of crypto, with three key occurrences that are likely to be remembered as particularly significant. First, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs back in January, followed also by spot ETH ETFs mid-year. Second, the election in November of a US president who is openly supportive of crypto and has clearly signalling a crypto-friendly approach, and third, bitcoin in December breaking the milestone $100,000 price target.

2024 年見證了加密貨幣歷史上一些最積極的發展，其中三個關鍵事件可能被認為特別重要。首先，在一月推出現貨比特幣 ETF，隨後在年中推出現貨 ETH ETF。其次，11 月當選的美國總統公開支持加密貨幣，並明確表示對加密貨幣友好的態度；第三，比特幣在 12 月突破了 10 萬美元的里程碑價格目標。

From that basis then, let’s look at some predictions about what may be incoming in 2025, and try to assess whether next year will be as ground-breaking for crypto as 2024 has proven to be.

在此基礎上，讓我們來看看 2025 年可能發生的事情的一些預測，並嘗試評估明年是否會像 2024 年那樣對加密貨幣具有突破性意義。

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Splits OpinionSpeaking at the Bitcoin Conference 2024 back in July, Trump made pledges to stockpile bitcoin, leading to speculation about a US strategic bitcoin reserve, but is this actually viable or beneficial for the US? Currently, it still seems like a long-shot, and what’s more, it’s dividing opinion even among BTC advocates.

比特幣戰略儲備存在分歧 早在 7 月的 2024 年比特幣大會上，川普就承諾儲備比特幣，引發了人們對美國比特幣戰略儲備的猜測，但這實際上可行或對美國有利嗎？目前，這似乎仍然是一個不太可能的事情，而且，即使在 BTC 擁護者之間，意見也存在分歧。

On the one hand, we have Senator Cynthia Lummis driving momentum in favor of the idea, while at the same time, Nic Carter–who is well known for his early exposal of the alleged anti-crypto banking strategy known as Operation Choke Point 2.0–is presenting the case against establishing a bitcoin reserve strategy.

一方面，我們有參議員辛西婭·魯米斯（Cynthia Lummis）推動這一想法的發展，而與此同時，尼克·卡特（Nic Carter）——他因早期揭露所謂的反加密銀行戰略（稱為「Operation Choke Point 2.0」）而聞名——正在提出反對建立比特幣儲備策略的理由。

While we can’t yet know how this one plays out, it’s likely that debate will heat up as Donald Trump’s inauguration nears, and we might see increased reference to potential competition from other BTC-holding nations.

雖然我們還不知道這件事會如何發展，但隨著唐納德·川普就職典禮的臨近，爭論很可能會升溫，而且我們可能會看到更多關於來自其他持有BTC 國家的潛在競爭的資訊.

Also, regardless of whether speculation about a bitcoin reserve actually leads to a concrete plan, there is no doubt that a firmly pro-crypto administration is on the way, with David Sacks taking on a new role as AI and Crypto Czar, Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary.

此外，無論對比特幣儲備的猜測是否真的會導致具體計劃，毫無疑問，堅定支持加密貨幣的政府即將到來，大衛·薩克斯（David Sacks）擔任人工智能和加密貨幣沙皇，斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）擔任新角色。

ETFs Carry On From Explosive StartThe spot Bitcoin ETFs that launched in January 2024 now collectively hold over $110 billion in assets under management, while the spot Ether ETFs that followed in July have topped $12 billion in assets under management, and we can expect that this explosive start for the Bitcoin products, with Ethereum playing catch up, can continue into 2025. The case for continued growth has been bolstered also by BlackRock recently recommending up to a 2% BTC portfolio allocation, with any uncertainty around how the ETFs would perform now dispelled.

ETF 繼續呈現爆發式成長2024 年1 月推出的現貨比特幣ETF 目前管理資產總額已超過1,100 億美元，而隨後7 月推出的現貨以太坊ETF 管理資產已突破120 億美元，我們可以預期這一爆炸性的成長比特幣產品的起步，以太坊的追趕，可能會持續到2025 年。性都已消除。

There may also be changes to the ETFs themselves, with anticipation that both the Bitcoin and Ether products will alter to allow in-kind redemptions while the ETH products will incorporate staking, and these adaptations may potentially fuel increased interest, as long as the overall crypto market structure remains bullish.

ETF 本身也可能會發生變化，預計比特幣和以太產品都將發生變化，以允許實物贖回，而 ETH 產品將納入質押，只要整體加密貨幣的發展，這些調整可能會刺激人們的興趣增加市場結構依然看漲。

Pro-Crypto Chair Realigns the SECRelated to the political changes outlined above, the new year–after Trump takes office–will bring a change of leadership at the SEC. Current Chair Gary Gensler is on his way out, and his departure should bring an end to the Commission’s adversarial approach to the crypto industry.

支持加密貨幣的主席重新調整 SEC 與上述政治變化相關，川普上任後的新一年將帶來 SEC 領導層的變化。現任主席加里詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 即將卸任，他的離職應該會結束委員會對加密貨幣行業的敵對態度。

Incoming as the new Chair is Paul Atkins, as announced by Trump at the start of December. Atkins is a free-market-minded former Commissioner at the SEC and a member of crypto advocacy group Token Alliance, and the decision to appoint him was greeted with enthusiasm by crypto industry execs, including Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal, who stated,

川普在 12 月初宣布，保羅阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 即將就任新任主席。阿特金斯是一位具有自由市場思想的SEC 前委員，也是加密貨幣倡導組織Token Alliance 的成員，任命他的決定受到了包括Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal 在內的加密貨幣行業高管的熱情歡迎，他表示：

“We appreciate his commitment to balance in regulating U.S. securities markets and look forward to his fresh leadership”.

「我們讚賞他在監管美國證券市場方面的平衡承諾，並期待他的新領導」。

This anticipated change of direction at the SEC also increases the likelihood of further crypto ETPs for various other coins, with XRP, LTC, HBAR and SOL all noted contenders for inclusion.

SEC 預期的方向變化也增加了其他各種加密貨幣進一步推出加密貨幣 ETP 的可能性，其中 XRP、LTC、HBAR 和 SOL 都是著名的競爭者。

Stable Coin Market Cap GrowsDuring 2024, the total stable coin market cap grew by almost 50% to $193 billion, and it’s plausible that this expansion continues in the new year. In fact, back in April 2024, Bernstein published a research report in which it stated that the stable coin market can reach $2.8 trillion over the next five years, alongside a prediction (according to that report) for, “Major global financial and consumer platforms to issue co-branded stable coins to power value-exchange on their platforms”.

穩定幣市值成長 2024 年，穩定幣總市值成長了近 50%，達到 1,930 億美元，這種擴張在新的一年可能會持續下去。事實上，早在2024 年4 月，伯恩斯坦就發布了一份研究報告，其中指出穩定幣市場在未來五年內將達到2.8 兆美元，並預測（根據該報告）「全球主要金融和消費平台發行聯名穩定幣以推動其平台上的價值交換」。

Asset manager VanEck has also predicted that stable coins are set to “revolutionize payments”, with an expectation that stable coin settlement volumes will triple from current levels to hit $300 billion per day by the end of 2025, while Bitwise predicts a doubling in the stable coin market cap by the end of 2025.

資產管理公司VanEck 還預測，穩定幣將“徹底改變支付方式”，預計到2025 年底，穩定幣結算量將是目前水平的三倍，達到每天3000 億美元，而Bitwise 預測穩定幣結算量將翻一番。

RWA Tokenization ExpandsThe tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) started gaining increased attention in 2024, thanks in part to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink speaking very positively, early in the

RWA 代幣化擴展現實世界資產（RWA）的代幣化在2024 年開始受到越來越多的關注，這在一定程度上要歸功於貝萊德首席執行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）在2024 年早期的非常積極的演講。