VanEck 表示，美国债务和比特币解决方案

2024年美国国债已突破36万亿美元。请注意，一年前约为 340,000 亿，因此在过去 12 个月中

According to VanEck, the United States could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 25 years thanks to a strategic reserve in Bitcoin.

VanEck 表示，由于比特币的战略储备，美国可以在未来 25 年内将其国债减少 35%。

Actually, this is only a projection, and not a forecast, but the calculations that have been carried out are still interesting to analyze.

实际上，这只是一个预测，而不是预测，但已经进行的计算分析起来仍然很有趣。

The USA debt and the resolution with Bitcoin according to VanEck

VanEck 表示，美国债务和比特币解决方案

The national debt of the United States in 2024 has risen above 36 trillion dollars.

2024年美国国债已升至36万亿美元以上。

Note that a year ago it was about 34,000 billion, so in the last twelve months it has increased by about 6%.

请注意，一年前约为 34 万亿，因此在过去 12 个月中增长了约 6%。

Five years ago it was 23,000 billion, and ten years ago it was 18,000.

五年前是23万亿，十年前是1.8万。

This means that from the end of 2014 to the end of 2019 it increased by about 28%, while from 2019 to today it has increased by as much as 56%.

这意味着从2014年底到2019年底增长了约28%，而从2019年到现在增长了56%之多。

It should be remembered, however, that the bulk of the increase occurred in 2020, when the Trump administration was forced to take extraordinary measures to combat the pandemic.

但应该记住，大部分增长发生在 2020 年，当时特朗普政府被迫采取非常措施来抗击这一流行病。

In fact, in the last four years it has increased by 24%, while in the four years prior to 2020 it increased by 21%.

事实上，在过去四年中，这一数字增长了 24%，而在 2020 年之前的四年中，这一数字增长了 21%。

These are nevertheless significant and continuous increases, based on a trend that shows no sign of reversing.

尽管如此，这些增长仍然是显着且持续的，而且其趋势没有任何逆转的迹象。

There are many concerns regarding this trend, so much so that even the President of the Fed, Jerome Powell, recently stated that he considers it unsustainable in the long term.

人们对这一趋势有很多担忧，甚至连美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近也表示，他认为从长远来看这是不可持续的。

The reduction of debt

债务减少

Reducing that debt is so difficult that in fact no one succeeds.

减少债务非常困难，实际上没有人成功。

Practically, it has been growing continuously since 2001, and the reduction in 2000 was really extremely limited and of very short duration, so much so that it did not interrupt the growth trend that began many decades earlier.

实际上，自2001年以来，它一直在持续增长，而2000年的下降确实非常有限，持续时间也很短，以至于没有中断几十年前开始的增长趋势。

Actually, inflation helps a bit to make it less unsustainable, because as prices increase, the State’s revenues from various taxes and duties also increase.

事实上，通货膨胀在一定程度上有助于降低经济的不可持续性，因为随着价格上涨，国家从各种税收和关税中获得的收入也会增加。

Note that ten years ago inflation was very low, 0.8%, and until two years ago it had remained practically always below 2%, except on relatively rare occasions.

请注意，十年前通胀率非常低，为 0.8%，直到两年前，除了相对罕见的情况外，通胀率几乎始终低于 2%。

Instead, in 2022 it skyrocketed above 9%, then dropped to 3.4% at the end of 2023 and to 2.7% in November 2024.

相反，2022 年这一比例飙升至 9% 以上，然后在 2023 年底降至 3.4%，2024 年 11 月降至 2.7%。

Therefore, the increase in the real value of the United States debt in the last two years has been less compared to that of the previous years, despite the increase in the nominal value being greater.

因此，近两年美国债务的实际价值增幅较前几年要小，尽管名义价值增幅较大。

Now, however, with inflation returning towards 2%, debt sustainability is becoming more challenging, especially if it continues to increase at this pace.

然而现在，随着通胀率重返2%，债务可持续性变得更具挑战性，特别是如果债务继续以这种速度增长的话。

The role of Bitcoin

比特币的作用

The reasoning of VanEck starts from the proposal by Senator Cynthia Lummis to have the United States hold 1 million Bitcoin.

VanEck的推理是从参议员Cynthia Lummis提出的让美国持有100万个比特币的提议开始的。

It should be noted, however, that as of today there is absolutely no certainty that such a proposal will be approved by Congress.

但值得注意的是，截至目前，还完全不能确定这样的提议是否会得到国会的批准。

In reality, the hypothesis that President Trump might eventually establish a strategic reserve in Bitcoin, once he takes office on January 20, seems quite likely, but what Trump has actually promised is just the idea of not selling the approximately 200,000 BTC already held by the US government thanks to seizures and confiscations carried out in the past from various criminals.

事实上，特朗普总统在 1 月 20 日上任后最终可能会建立比特币战略储备的假设似乎很有可能，但特朗普实际上承诺的只是不出售已经持有的约 20 万枚比特币。美国政府感谢过去对各种犯罪分子的扣押和没收。

Instead, VanEck’s projection is based on the Lummis proposal, which, to be honest, seems a bit unlikely to be approved.

相反，VanEck 的预测是基于 Lummis 提案，老实说，该提案似乎不太可能获得批准。

On the other hand, VanEck’s hypothesis is just a projection, and not a true forecast.

另一方面，范埃克的假设只是一个预测，而不是真正的预测。

VanEck’s calculations: Bitcoin is capable of reducing the USA debt

VanEck 的计算：比特币能够减少美国债务

According to the head of digital asset research at VanEck, Matthew Sigel, and analyst Nathan Frankovitz in a report published a few days ago, a reserve of one million BTC could allow the United States to reduce its national debt by 35% if the price of Bitcoin were to exceed 42 million dollars by 2049.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 和分析师 Nathan Frankovitz 在日前发布的一份报告中表示，如果比特币价格上涨，100 万比特币的储备可以让美国减少 35% 的国债。到 2049 年，比特币价值将超过 4200 万美元。

Imagining that in 2049 the price of Bitcoin rises to 42 million dollars is actually a clear gamble, but it is interesting how the analysts at VanEck arrived at that figure.

想象 2049 年比特币的价格上涨到 4200 万美元实际上是一场赌博，但有趣的是 VanEck 的分析师是如何得出这个数字的。

In the report, at a certain point, a chart appears.

在报告中的某个时刻，会出现一个图表。

This is a projection of the growth of US debt compared to Bitcoin reserves based on the assumption of a 25% CAGR of BTC.

这是基于 BTC 复合年增长率 25% 的假设，对美国债务增长与比特币储备进行的预测。

The CAGR (Compounded Average Growth Rate) is the compounded annual growth rate, and in this case regarding the price of BTC, it is set at 25%.

CAGR（Compounded Average Growth Rate）是复合年增长率，在本例中，就 BTC 的价格而言，其设定为 25%。

The point is precisely this: why 25%?

重点在于：为什么是 25%？

The growth of Bitcoin

比特币的增长

If we take as a reference the first available price for Bitcoin on public markets, namely

如果我们以公开市场上比特币的第一个可用价格作为参考，即