VanEck 表示，美國債務和比特幣解決方案

2024年美國公債已突破36兆美元。請注意，一年前約為 340,000 億，因此在過去 12 個月中

According to VanEck, the United States could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 25 years thanks to a strategic reserve in Bitcoin.

VanEck 表示，由於比特幣的戰略儲備，美國可以在未來 25 年內將其國債減少 35%。

Actually, this is only a projection, and not a forecast, but the calculations that have been carried out are still interesting to analyze.

實際上，這只是一個預測，而不是預測，但已經進行的計算分析起來仍然很有趣。

The USA debt and the resolution with Bitcoin according to VanEck

VanEck 表示，美國債務和比特幣解決方案

The national debt of the United States in 2024 has risen above 36 trillion dollars.

2024年美國公債已升至36兆美元以上。

Note that a year ago it was about 34,000 billion, so in the last twelve months it has increased by about 6%.

請注意，一年前約為 34 萬億，因此在過去 12 個月中增長了約 6%。

Five years ago it was 23,000 billion, and ten years ago it was 18,000.

五年前是23兆，十年前是1.8萬。

This means that from the end of 2014 to the end of 2019 it increased by about 28%, while from 2019 to today it has increased by as much as 56%.

這意味著從2014年底到2019年底成長了約28%，而從2019年到現在成長了56%之多。

It should be remembered, however, that the bulk of the increase occurred in 2020, when the Trump administration was forced to take extraordinary measures to combat the pandemic.

但應該記住，大部分成長發生在 2020 年，當時川普政府被迫採取非常措施來對抗這場流行病。

In fact, in the last four years it has increased by 24%, while in the four years prior to 2020 it increased by 21%.

事實上，過去四年成長了 24%，而 2020 年之前的四年成長了 21%。

These are nevertheless significant and continuous increases, based on a trend that shows no sign of reversing.

儘管如此，這些成長仍顯著且持續，且趨勢沒有逆轉的跡象。

There are many concerns regarding this trend, so much so that even the President of the Fed, Jerome Powell, recently stated that he considers it unsustainable in the long term.

人們對這一趨勢有很多擔憂，甚至連聯準會主席鮑威爾最近也表示，他認為從長遠來看這是不可持續的。

The reduction of debt

債務減少

Reducing that debt is so difficult that in fact no one succeeds.

減少債務非常困難，實際上沒有人成功。

Practically, it has been growing continuously since 2001, and the reduction in 2000 was really extremely limited and of very short duration, so much so that it did not interrupt the growth trend that began many decades earlier.

實際上，自2001年以來，它一直在持續成長，而2000年的下降確實非常有限，持續時間也很短，以至於沒有中斷幾十年前開始的成長趨勢。

Actually, inflation helps a bit to make it less unsustainable, because as prices increase, the State’s revenues from various taxes and duties also increase.

事實上，通貨膨脹在一定程度上有助於降低其不可持續性，因為隨著價格上漲，國家從各種稅收和關稅中獲得的收入也會增加。

Note that ten years ago inflation was very low, 0.8%, and until two years ago it had remained practically always below 2%, except on relatively rare occasions.

請注意，十年前通貨膨脹率非常低，為 0.8%，直到兩年前，除了相對罕見的情況外，通貨膨脹率實際上始終低於 2%。

Instead, in 2022 it skyrocketed above 9%, then dropped to 3.4% at the end of 2023 and to 2.7% in November 2024.

相反，2022 年這一比例飆升至 9% 以上，然後在 2023 年底降至 3.4%，2024 年 11 月降至 2.7%。

Therefore, the increase in the real value of the United States debt in the last two years has been less compared to that of the previous years, despite the increase in the nominal value being greater.

因此，近兩年美國債務的實際價值增幅較前幾年要小，儘管名目價值增幅較大。

Now, however, with inflation returning towards 2%, debt sustainability is becoming more challenging, especially if it continues to increase at this pace.

然而現在，隨著通膨率重返2%，債務可持續性變得更具挑戰性，特別是如果債務繼續以這種速度增長的話。

The role of Bitcoin

比特幣的作用

The reasoning of VanEck starts from the proposal by Senator Cynthia Lummis to have the United States hold 1 million Bitcoin.

VanEck的推理是從參議員Cynthia Lummis提出的讓美國持有100萬個比特幣的提案開始的。

It should be noted, however, that as of today there is absolutely no certainty that such a proposal will be approved by Congress.

但值得注意的是，截至目前，完全不能確定這樣的提議是否會得到國會的批准。

In reality, the hypothesis that President Trump might eventually establish a strategic reserve in Bitcoin, once he takes office on January 20, seems quite likely, but what Trump has actually promised is just the idea of not selling the approximately 200,000 BTC already held by the US government thanks to seizures and confiscations carried out in the past from various criminals.

事實上，川普總統在1 月20 日上任後最終可能會建立比特幣戰略儲備的假設似乎很有可能，但川普實際上承諾的只是不出售已經持有的約20 萬比特幣的想法。

Instead, VanEck’s projection is based on the Lummis proposal, which, to be honest, seems a bit unlikely to be approved.

相反，VanEck 的預測是基於 Lummis 提案，老實說，該提案似乎不太可能獲得批准。

On the other hand, VanEck’s hypothesis is just a projection, and not a true forecast.

另一方面，範埃克的假設只是一個預測，而不是真正的預測。

VanEck’s calculations: Bitcoin is capable of reducing the USA debt

VanEck 的計算：比特幣能夠減少美國債務

According to the head of digital asset research at VanEck, Matthew Sigel, and analyst Nathan Frankovitz in a report published a few days ago, a reserve of one million BTC could allow the United States to reduce its national debt by 35% if the price of Bitcoin were to exceed 42 million dollars by 2049.

VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 和分析師 Nathan Frankovitz 在日前發布的報告中表示，如果比特幣價格上漲，100 萬比特幣的儲備可以讓美國減少 35% 的國債。將超過4200 萬美元。

Imagining that in 2049 the price of Bitcoin rises to 42 million dollars is actually a clear gamble, but it is interesting how the analysts at VanEck arrived at that figure.

想像 2049 年比特幣的價格上漲到 4,200 萬美元實際上是一場賭博，但有趣的是 VanEck 的分析師是如何得出這個數字的。

In the report, at a certain point, a chart appears.

在報告中的某個時刻，會出現一個圖表。

This is a projection of the growth of US debt compared to Bitcoin reserves based on the assumption of a 25% CAGR of BTC.

這是基於 BTC 複合年增長率 25% 的假設，對美國債務成長與比特幣儲備進行的預測。

The CAGR (Compounded Average Growth Rate) is the compounded annual growth rate, and in this case regarding the price of BTC, it is set at 25%.

CAGR（Compounded Average Growth Rate）是複合年增長率，在本例中，就 BTC 的價格而言，其設定為 25%。

The point is precisely this: why 25%?

重點在於：為什麼 25%？

The growth of Bitcoin

比特幣的成長

If we take as a reference the first available price for Bitcoin on public markets, namely

如果我們以公開市場上比特幣的第一個可用價格作為參考，即