贝莱德为比特币辩护，目标是 2% 的分配

如果您碰巧是比特币怀疑论者，那么您并不孤单。皮尤研究中心最近的一项调查发现，63% 的美国人总体上对加密货币的可靠性或安全性没有信心。

A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general. But when BlackRock speaks, it often pays to listen.

皮尤研究中心最近的一项调查发现，63% 的美国人总体上对加密货币的可靠性或安全性没有信心。但当贝莱德发言时，倾听往往是值得的。

In its just-released 2025 Global Outlook report, the world’s largest asset management firm lays out a case for Bitcoin not only as a diversifier alongside gold but also a strategic hedge against an environment where the historical stock-bond correlation is breaking down.

在其刚刚发布的 2025 年全球展望报告中，这家全球最大的资产管理公司阐述了比特币不仅可以作为与黄金一样的多元化工具，而且可以作为一种战略对冲工具，以应对历史股债相关性正在崩溃的环境。

For decades, the classic 60/40 portfolio—60% stocks, 40% bonds—was the gold standard of diversification. When stocks crashed, as they did during the dotcom bubble and global financial crisis, bonds usually rose in value, providing a cushion against market volatility.

几十年来，经典的 60/40 投资组合（60% 股票，40% 债券）一直是多元化的黄金标准。当股市崩盘时，就像互联网泡沫和全球金融危机期间那样，债券通常会升值，为市场波动提供缓冲。

But we’re in a new regime now where this correlation has become increasingly unreliable. If you recall, 2022 was the worst year on record for U.S. stocks and bonds.

但我们现在处于一个新的政权中，这种相关性变得越来越不可靠。如果您还记得的话，2022 年是美国股票和债券有记录以来最糟糕的一年。

BlackRock identifies this trend and suggests that investors need to look beyond government bonds for diversification. This is where gold and Bitcoin come into play. Both assets offer unique advantages as hedges and diversifiers, but they do so in different ways.

贝莱德认识到了这一趋势，并建议投资者需要将目光投向政府债券以外的多元化投资。这就是黄金和比特币发挥作用的地方。这两种资产作为对冲和多元化资产都具有独特的优势，但它们的实现方式不同。

BlackRock’s Case for a 2% Bitcoin Allocation

贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 2% 比特币分配方案

Bitcoin’s potential as a portfolio diversifier stems from its unique value proposition. It has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, and its demand is influenced by adoption trends, investor sentiment and macroeconomic factors. In the days following the November election, Bitcoin surged above $100,000, with its market cap topping $2 trillion—just under 2% of the total value of global equities.

比特币作为投资组合多元化工具的潜力源于其独特的价值主张。它的固定供应量为 2100 万枚，其需求受到采用趋势、投资者情绪和宏观经济因素的影响。在 11 月大选后的几天里，比特币飙升至 10 万美元以上，市值突破 2 万亿美元，略低于全球股票总价值的 2%。

Last Thursday, Bitcoin tumbled 3.6%, falling back below $100,000, on the news that the Federal Reserve will approve fewer interest rate cuts than the market expected next year.

上周四，受美联储明年批准降息幅度低于市场预期的消息影响，比特币暴跌 3.6%，跌至 10 万美元以下。

BlackRock isn’t suggesting that Bitcoin should replace bonds in your portfolio. Instead, they’re recommending a modest allocation—1% to 2%—to capture its diversification benefits without significantly increasing risk. In fact, a 2% Bitcoin allocation provides a similar risk profile to holding the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla) in a balanced portfolio.

贝莱德并不建议比特币应该取代你投资组合中的债券。相反，他们建议进行适度的配置（1% 至 2%），以在不显着增加风险的情况下获得多元化收益。事实上，2% 的比特币配置提供了与在平衡投资组合中持有“七大”科技股（苹果、微软、英伟达、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta 和特斯拉）类似的风险状况。

A Market Cap That Can’t Be Ignored

不容忽视的市值

Even though Bitcoin’s market cap has fallen below $2 trillion, it remains the seventh-largest asset in the world, ahead of Saudi Aramco and even silver. The global gold market, by comparison, is valued at $17.8 trillion—nine times larger than Bitcoin.

尽管比特币的市值已跌破 2 万亿美元，但它仍然是世界第七大资产，领先于沙特阿美公司甚至白银。相比之下，全球黄金市场的价值为 17.8 万亿美元，是比特币的九倍。

But Bitcoin’s growth trajectory is undeniable. Before its price declined, it took 40 ounces of gold to buy one Bitcoin. That’s roughly double what it was at the beginning of the year.

但比特币的增长轨迹是不可否认的。在价格下跌之前，需要 40 盎司黄金才能购买 1 个比特币。这大约是年初的两倍。

Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz believes Bitcoin could match and even surpass gold’s $17 trillion market cap within the next five to eight years. That’s a bold prediction, but it’s not without merit. As more investors, institutions and nations adopt Bitcoin, its scarcity becomes more pronounced, potentially driving prices higher.

Galaxy Digital 的 Mike Novogratz 认为，比特币可能在未来五到八年内追平甚至超过黄金 17 万亿美元的市值。这是一个大胆的预测，但并非没有道理。随着越来越多的投资者、机构和国家采用比特币，其稀缺性变得更加明显，可能会推高价格。

Dogecoin: The Fun Alternative with Real Utility

狗狗币：具有真正实用性的有趣替代品

While Bitcoin has established itself as digital gold, Dogecoin has carved out a niche as a lighthearted, community-driven cryptocurrency with surprising staying power. Originally launched as a joke in 2013, Dogecoin has since grown into a legitimate digital asset with a market cap in the tens of billions.

虽然比特币已经确立了自己的数字黄金地位，但狗狗币已经开辟了一个利基市场，成为一种轻松、社区驱动的加密货币，具有令人惊讶的持久力。狗狗币最初于 2013 年作为一个笑话推出，现已发展成为市值数百亿美元的合法数字资产。

Dogecoin’s appeal lies in its utility for microtransactions. It’s used mostly to tip content creators and foster online engagement. Its low transaction fees and fast processing times make it an ideal currency for small, everyday payments. Unlike Bitcoin’s fixed supply, Dogecoin has no hard cap, which helps keep its price stable for transactional use.

狗狗币的吸引力在于它对微交易的实用性。它主要用于向内容创作者提供小费并促进在线参与。其低廉的交易费用和快速的处理时间使其成为小额日常支付的理想货币。与比特币的固定供应量不同，狗狗币没有硬上限，这有助于保持交易用途的价格稳定。

Elon Musk’s longtime support of Dogecoin has contributed to its growing popularity. News that President-elect Trump plans to appoint Musk to co-lead the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, has added to the speculation and excitement. Since the election, Dogecoin has significantly outperformed Bitcoin.

埃隆·马斯克对狗狗币的长期支持使其越来越受欢迎。当选总统特朗普计划任命马斯克共同领导新成立的政府效率部（DOGE）的消息加剧了人们的猜测和兴奋。自大选以来，狗狗币的表现明显优于比特币。

While it’s still seen as a “meme coin,” Dogecoin’s growing user base and real-world utility suggest that it might deserve a closer look from investors. There’s even talk of a Dogecoin ETF next year.

虽然它仍然被视为一种“模因币”，但狗狗币不断增长的用户群和现实世界的实用性表明它可能值得投资者仔细研究。甚至有传言称明年将推出狗狗币 ETF。

The Case for a Modest Allocation

适度分配的理由

BlackRock’s research makes a compelling case for a 1% to 2% allocation to Bitcoin. I believe this relatively small position can provide meaningful diversification benefits without exposing your portfolio to excessive risk. And as Bitcoin’s market cap continues to grow, that modest allocation could deliver outsized returns.

贝莱德的研究为比特币的 1% 到 2% 的配置提供了令人信服的理由。我相信这个相对较小的头寸可以提供有意义的多元化收益，而不会使您的投资组合面临过度风险。随着比特币市值的持续增长，这种适度的配置可能会带来巨大的回报。

Remember, Bitcoin is still a volatile asset. But so was gold during the 1970s when it was reintroduced to the free market after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. I’ve been in

请记住，比特币仍然是一种不稳定的资产。但 20 世纪 70 年代布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，黄金被重新引入自由市场，黄金也是如此。我去过