貝萊德為比特幣辯護，目標是 2% 的分配

如果您碰巧是比特幣懷疑論者，那麼您並不孤單。皮尤研究中心最近的一項調查發現，63% 的美國人總體上對加密貨幣的可靠性或安全性沒有信心。

A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general. But when BlackRock speaks, it often pays to listen.

皮尤研究中心最近的一項調查發現，63% 的美國人總體上對加密貨幣的可靠性或安全性沒有信心。但當貝萊德發言時，傾聽往往是值得的。

In its just-released 2025 Global Outlook report, the world’s largest asset management firm lays out a case for Bitcoin not only as a diversifier alongside gold but also a strategic hedge against an environment where the historical stock-bond correlation is breaking down.

在其剛發布的2025 年全球展望報告中，這家全球最大的資產管理公司闡述了比特幣不僅可以作為黃金的多元化工具，而且可以作為一種戰略對沖工具，以應對歷史股債相關性正在崩潰的環境。

For decades, the classic 60/40 portfolio—60% stocks, 40% bonds—was the gold standard of diversification. When stocks crashed, as they did during the dotcom bubble and global financial crisis, bonds usually rose in value, providing a cushion against market volatility.

幾十年來，經典的 60/40 投資組合（60% 股票，40% 債券）一直是多元化的黃金標準。當股市崩盤時，就像網路泡沫和全球金融危機期間一樣，債券通常會升值，為市場波動提供緩衝。

But we’re in a new regime now where this correlation has become increasingly unreliable. If you recall, 2022 was the worst year on record for U.S. stocks and bonds.

但我們現在處於一個新的政權中，這種相關性變得越來越不可靠。如果你還記得的話，2022 年是美國股票和債券有史以來最糟糕的一年。

BlackRock identifies this trend and suggests that investors need to look beyond government bonds for diversification. This is where gold and Bitcoin come into play. Both assets offer unique advantages as hedges and diversifiers, but they do so in different ways.

貝萊德意識到了這一趨勢，並建議投資者需要將目光投向政府債券以外的多元化投資。這就是黃金和比特幣發揮作用的地方。這兩種資產作為對沖和多元化資產都具有獨特的優勢，但它們的實現方式不同。

BlackRock’s Case for a 2% Bitcoin Allocation

貝萊德 (BlackRock) 的 2% 比特幣分配方案

Bitcoin’s potential as a portfolio diversifier stems from its unique value proposition. It has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, and its demand is influenced by adoption trends, investor sentiment and macroeconomic factors. In the days following the November election, Bitcoin surged above $100,000, with its market cap topping $2 trillion—just under 2% of the total value of global equities.

比特幣作為投資組合多元化工具的潛力源自於其獨特的價值主張。它的固定供應量為 2,100 萬枚，其需求受到採用趨勢、投資者情緒和宏觀經濟因素的影響。在 11 月大選後的幾天裡，比特幣飆升至 10 萬美元以上，市值突破 2 兆美元，略低於全球股票總價值的 2%。

Last Thursday, Bitcoin tumbled 3.6%, falling back below $100,000, on the news that the Federal Reserve will approve fewer interest rate cuts than the market expected next year.

上週四，受聯準會明年批准降息幅度低於市場預期的消息影響，比特幣暴跌 3.6%，跌至 10 萬美元以下。

BlackRock isn’t suggesting that Bitcoin should replace bonds in your portfolio. Instead, they’re recommending a modest allocation—1% to 2%—to capture its diversification benefits without significantly increasing risk. In fact, a 2% Bitcoin allocation provides a similar risk profile to holding the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla) in a balanced portfolio.

貝萊德並沒有建議比特幣應該取代你投資組合中的債券。相反，他們建議進行適度的配置（1% 至 2%），以在不顯著增加風險的情況下獲得多元化收益。事實上，2% 的比特幣配置提供了與在平衡投資組合中持有「七大」科技股（蘋果、微軟、英偉達、亞馬遜、Alphabet、Meta 和特斯拉）類似的風險狀況。

A Market Cap That Can’t Be Ignored

不容忽視的市值

Even though Bitcoin’s market cap has fallen below $2 trillion, it remains the seventh-largest asset in the world, ahead of Saudi Aramco and even silver. The global gold market, by comparison, is valued at $17.8 trillion—nine times larger than Bitcoin.

儘管比特幣的市值已跌破 2 兆美元，但它仍然是世界第七大資產，領先沙烏地阿美甚至白銀。相比之下，全球黃金市場的價值為 17.8 兆美元，是比特幣的九倍。

But Bitcoin’s growth trajectory is undeniable. Before its price declined, it took 40 ounces of gold to buy one Bitcoin. That’s roughly double what it was at the beginning of the year.

但比特幣的成長軌跡是不可否認的。在價格下跌之前，需要 40 盎司黃金才能購買 1 個比特幣。這大約是年初的兩倍。

Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz believes Bitcoin could match and even surpass gold’s $17 trillion market cap within the next five to eight years. That’s a bold prediction, but it’s not without merit. As more investors, institutions and nations adopt Bitcoin, its scarcity becomes more pronounced, potentially driving prices higher.

Galaxy Digital 的 Mike Novogratz 認為，比特幣可能在未來五到八年內追平甚至超過黃金 17 兆美元的市值。這是一個大膽的預測，但並非沒有道理。隨著越來越多的投資者、機構和國家採用比特幣，其稀缺性變得更加明顯，可能會推高價格。

Dogecoin: The Fun Alternative with Real Utility

狗狗幣：具有真正實用性的有趣替代品

While Bitcoin has established itself as digital gold, Dogecoin has carved out a niche as a lighthearted, community-driven cryptocurrency with surprising staying power. Originally launched as a joke in 2013, Dogecoin has since grown into a legitimate digital asset with a market cap in the tens of billions.

雖然比特幣已經確立了自己的數位黃金地位，但狗狗幣已經開闢了一個利基市場，成為一種輕鬆、社群驅動的加密貨幣，具有令人驚訝的持久力。狗狗幣最初於 2013 年作為一個笑話推出，現已發展成為市值數百億美元的合法數位資產。

Dogecoin’s appeal lies in its utility for microtransactions. It’s used mostly to tip content creators and foster online engagement. Its low transaction fees and fast processing times make it an ideal currency for small, everyday payments. Unlike Bitcoin’s fixed supply, Dogecoin has no hard cap, which helps keep its price stable for transactional use.

狗狗幣的吸引力在於它對微交易的實用性。它主要用於向內容創作者提供小費並促進線上參與。其低廉的交易費用和快速的處理時間使其成為小額日常支付的理想貨幣。與比特幣的固定供應量不同，狗狗幣沒有硬上限，這有助於維持交易用途的價格穩定。

Elon Musk’s longtime support of Dogecoin has contributed to its growing popularity. News that President-elect Trump plans to appoint Musk to co-lead the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, has added to the speculation and excitement. Since the election, Dogecoin has significantly outperformed Bitcoin.

伊隆馬斯克對狗狗幣的長期支持使其越來越受歡迎。當選總統川普計劃任命馬斯克共同領導新成立的政府效率部（DOGE）的消息加劇了人們的猜測和興奮。自大選以來，狗狗幣的表現明顯優於比特幣。

While it’s still seen as a “meme coin,” Dogecoin’s growing user base and real-world utility suggest that it might deserve a closer look from investors. There’s even talk of a Dogecoin ETF next year.

雖然狗狗幣仍然被視為一種“迷因幣”，但狗狗幣不斷增長的用戶群和現實世界的實用性表明它可能值得投資者仔細研究。甚至有傳言明年將推出狗狗幣 ETF。

The Case for a Modest Allocation

適度分配的理由

BlackRock’s research makes a compelling case for a 1% to 2% allocation to Bitcoin. I believe this relatively small position can provide meaningful diversification benefits without exposing your portfolio to excessive risk. And as Bitcoin’s market cap continues to grow, that modest allocation could deliver outsized returns.

貝萊德的研究為比特幣的 1% 到 2% 的配置提供了令人信服的理由。我相信這個相對較小的部位可以提供有意義的多元化收益，而不會使您的投資組合面臨過度風險。隨著比特幣市值的持續成長，這種適度的配置可能會帶來巨大的回報。

Remember, Bitcoin is still a volatile asset. But so was gold during the 1970s when it was reintroduced to the free market after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. I’ve been in

請記住，比特幣仍然是一種不穩定的資產。但 20 世紀 70 年代布雷頓森林體系崩潰後，黃金被重新引入自由市場，黃金也是如此。我去過