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链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的最新研究显示,投机者介入,而经验丰富的持有者则在 BTC 上规避风险。
Bitcoin ( BTC ) could face selling pressure as onchain metrics show a potential shift in hodler behavior.
比特币(BTC)可能面临抛售压力,因为链上指标显示持有者行为可能发生转变。
According to the latest CryptoQuant analysis, speculators might be stepping in as seasoned hodlers reduce their BTC exposure.
根据最新的 CryptoQuant 分析,随着经验丰富的持有者减少 BTC 敞口,投机者可能会介入。
Bitcoin hodlers cashing out?
比特币持有者套现?
As Bitcoin continues to rally, notching a fresh 2023 high and nearing a return to all-time highs, hodlers appear to be cashing out a portion of their holdings.
随着比特币继续上涨,创下 2023 年新高并接近历史高点,持有者似乎正在兑现部分持有的比特币。
Analyzing the net realized cap (NRC) of long-term holders (LTHs), defined as entities hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or more, shows a "sharp decrease" in their BTC exposure.
长期持有者(LTH)的定义是持有一定数量的 BTC 155 天或更长时间的实体,其净实现上限(NRC)分析显示,其 BTC 敞口“急剧下降”。
“There has been a recent sharp decrease of $6 billion (from $19 billion to $12 billion) in the LTH realized cap (blue), suggesting that long-term holders are likely taking profits or closing buying positions,” contributor Amr Taha noted in one of the platform's Quicktake blog posts.
撰稿人 Amr Taha 在一篇文章中指出:“LTH 已实现上限(蓝色)最近急剧下降了 60 亿美元(从 190 亿美元降至 120 亿美元),这表明长期持有者可能会获利了结或平仓。”该平台的 Quicktake 博客文章。
A screenshot from the analysis shows the net change in the LTH realized cap, which is the sum price at which LTH coins last moved.
分析的屏幕截图显示了 LTH 实现上限的净变化,即 LTH 代币上次移动的总价格。
On the other hand, short-term holders (STHs) are exhibiting a contrasting trend in the market. These speculators, defined as entities holding BTC for up to 155 days, are increasing their stake in Bitcoin.
另一方面,短期持有者(STH)在市场上表现出截然不同的趋势。这些投机者被定义为持有 BTC 长达 155 天的实体,他们正在增加其在比特币中的股份。
“Conversely, the STH realized cap (orange) has seen a recent sharp increase of $6 billion, moving from -$17 billion to -$11 billion, indicating that short-term holders are likely taking on more risk or increasing their buying positions,” Taha added.
“相反,STH 已实现上限(橙色)最近急剧增加了 60 亿美元,从 -170 亿美元增至 -110 亿美元,表明短期持有者可能会承担更多风险或增加买入头寸,”Taha额外。
Bitcoin LTH, STH net position realized cap (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
比特币 LTH、STH 净持仓已实现上限(截图)。来源:CryptoQuant
BTC price momentum gets a warning
BTC价格势头受到警告
Further insights from the analysis highlight a close interaction between the realized price of all BTC that moved between one day and one week ago — the "hottest" part of the Bitcoin supply — and the Bitcoin spot price.
分析中的进一步见解凸显了一天到一周前波动的所有 BTC 的实际价格(比特币供应中“最热门”的部分)与比特币现货价格之间的密切互动。
Related: Bitcoin analysis sees BTC price gains on Coinbase premium golden cross
相关:比特币分析认为 BTC 价格因 Coinbase 溢价黄金交叉而上涨
At the time of writing, the one-day to one-week realized price was at $62,080, nearly identical to the spot BTC/USD price.
截至撰写本文时,一日至一周的实现价格为 62,080 美元,几乎与 BTC/USD 现货价格相同。
“The multiple interactions between the price and the realized price in a relatively short time frame suggest that traders are paying close attention to this level,” Taha noted.
塔哈指出:“在相对较短的时间内,价格与实际价格之间的多重相互作用表明交易者正在密切关注这一水平。”
Bitcoin realized price of coins moving 1 day to 1 week ago. Source: CryptoQuant
比特币实现的代币价格在 1 天到 1 周前变动。来源:CryptoQuant
Recently, Cointelegraph covered a massive wave of exchange withdrawals, marking Bitcoin's biggest withdrawals since November 2022, around the lows of its last bear market.
最近,Cointelegraph 报道了大规模的交易所提款,这是比特币自 2022 年 11 月以来最大规模的提款,大约在上次熊市的低点附近。
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