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鏈上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的最新研究顯示,投機者介入,而經驗豐富的持有者則在 BTC 上規避風險。
Bitcoin ( BTC ) could face selling pressure as onchain metrics show a potential shift in hodler behavior.
比特幣(BTC)可能面臨拋售壓力,因為鏈上指標顯示持有者行為可能發生轉變。
According to the latest CryptoQuant analysis, speculators might be stepping in as seasoned hodlers reduce their BTC exposure.
根據最新的 CryptoQuant 分析,隨著經驗豐富的持有者減少 BTC 曝險,投機者可能會介入。
Bitcoin hodlers cashing out?
比特幣持有者套現?
As Bitcoin continues to rally, notching a fresh 2023 high and nearing a return to all-time highs, hodlers appear to be cashing out a portion of their holdings.
隨著比特幣繼續上漲,創下 2023 年新高並接近歷史高點,持有者似乎正在兌現部分持有的比特幣。
Analyzing the net realized cap (NRC) of long-term holders (LTHs), defined as entities hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or more, shows a "sharp decrease" in their BTC exposure.
長期持有者(LTH)的定義是持有一定數量的 BTC 155 天或更長時間的實體,其淨實現上限(NRC)分析顯示,其 BTC 敞口「急劇下降」。
“There has been a recent sharp decrease of $6 billion (from $19 billion to $12 billion) in the LTH realized cap (blue), suggesting that long-term holders are likely taking profits or closing buying positions,” contributor Amr Taha noted in one of the platform's Quicktake blog posts.
撰稿人Amr Taha 在一篇文章中指出:「LTH 已實現上限(藍色)最近急劇下降了60 億美元(從190 億美元降至120 億美元),這表明長期持有者可能會獲利了結或平倉。
A screenshot from the analysis shows the net change in the LTH realized cap, which is the sum price at which LTH coins last moved.
分析的螢幕截圖顯示了 LTH 實現上限的淨變化,即 LTH 代幣上次移動的總價格。
On the other hand, short-term holders (STHs) are exhibiting a contrasting trend in the market. These speculators, defined as entities holding BTC for up to 155 days, are increasing their stake in Bitcoin.
另一方面,短期持有者(STH)在市場上表現出截然不同的趨勢。這些投機者被定義為持有 BTC 長達 155 天的實體,他們正在增加其在比特幣中的股份。
“Conversely, the STH realized cap (orange) has seen a recent sharp increase of $6 billion, moving from -$17 billion to -$11 billion, indicating that short-term holders are likely taking on more risk or increasing their buying positions,” Taha added.
「相反,STH 已實現上限(橙色)最近急劇增加了 60 億美元,從 -170 億美元增至 -110 億美元,表明短期持有者可能會承擔更多風險或增加買入頭寸,」Taha額外。
Bitcoin LTH, STH net position realized cap (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
比特幣 LTH、STH 淨持股已實現上限(截圖)。來源:CryptoQuant
BTC price momentum gets a warning
BTC價格勢頭受到警告
Further insights from the analysis highlight a close interaction between the realized price of all BTC that moved between one day and one week ago — the "hottest" part of the Bitcoin supply — and the Bitcoin spot price.
分析中的進一步見解凸顯了一天到一周前波動的所有 BTC 的實際價格(比特幣供應中「最熱門」的部分)與比特幣現貨價格之間的密切互動。
Related: Bitcoin analysis sees BTC price gains on Coinbase premium golden cross
相關:比特幣分析認為 BTC 價格因 Coinbase 溢價黃金交叉而上漲
At the time of writing, the one-day to one-week realized price was at $62,080, nearly identical to the spot BTC/USD price.
截至撰寫本文時,一日至一週的實現價格為 62,080 美元,幾乎與 BTC/USD 現貨價格相同。
“The multiple interactions between the price and the realized price in a relatively short time frame suggest that traders are paying close attention to this level,” Taha noted.
塔哈指出:“在相對較短的時間內,價格與實際價格之間的多重交互作用表明交易者正在密切關注這一水平。”
Bitcoin realized price of coins moving 1 day to 1 week ago. Source: CryptoQuant
比特幣實現的代幣價格在 1 天到 1 週前變動。來源:CryptoQuant
Recently, Cointelegraph covered a massive wave of exchange withdrawals, marking Bitcoin's biggest withdrawals since November 2022, around the lows of its last bear market.
最近,Cointelegraph 報告了大規模的交易所提款,這是比特幣自 2022 年 11 月以來最大規模的提款,大約在上次熊市的低點附近。
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