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Cryptocurrency News Articles
Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Potential Selling Pressure as the Dollar Value of Hodlers’ BTC Exposure Falls by Billions of Dollars
Oct 06, 2024 at 08:01 pm
New research by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows speculators stepping in while seasoned hodlers go risk-off on BTC.
Bitcoin ( BTC ) could face selling pressure as onchain metrics show a potential shift in hodler behavior.
According to the latest CryptoQuant analysis, speculators might be stepping in as seasoned hodlers reduce their BTC exposure.
Bitcoin hodlers cashing out?
As Bitcoin continues to rally, notching a fresh 2023 high and nearing a return to all-time highs, hodlers appear to be cashing out a portion of their holdings.
Analyzing the net realized cap (NRC) of long-term holders (LTHs), defined as entities hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or more, shows a "sharp decrease" in their BTC exposure.
“There has been a recent sharp decrease of $6 billion (from $19 billion to $12 billion) in the LTH realized cap (blue), suggesting that long-term holders are likely taking profits or closing buying positions,” contributor Amr Taha noted in one of the platform's Quicktake blog posts.
A screenshot from the analysis shows the net change in the LTH realized cap, which is the sum price at which LTH coins last moved.
On the other hand, short-term holders (STHs) are exhibiting a contrasting trend in the market. These speculators, defined as entities holding BTC for up to 155 days, are increasing their stake in Bitcoin.
“Conversely, the STH realized cap (orange) has seen a recent sharp increase of $6 billion, moving from -$17 billion to -$11 billion, indicating that short-term holders are likely taking on more risk or increasing their buying positions,” Taha added.
Bitcoin LTH, STH net position realized cap (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
BTC price momentum gets a warning
Further insights from the analysis highlight a close interaction between the realized price of all BTC that moved between one day and one week ago — the "hottest" part of the Bitcoin supply — and the Bitcoin spot price.
Related: Bitcoin analysis sees BTC price gains on Coinbase premium golden cross
At the time of writing, the one-day to one-week realized price was at $62,080, nearly identical to the spot BTC/USD price.
“The multiple interactions between the price and the realized price in a relatively short time frame suggest that traders are paying close attention to this level,” Taha noted.
Bitcoin realized price of coins moving 1 day to 1 week ago. Source: CryptoQuant
Recently, Cointelegraph covered a massive wave of exchange withdrawals, marking Bitcoin's biggest withdrawals since November 2022, around the lows of its last bear market.
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