比特币（BTC）永久期货融资率接近零，因为现货ETF和企业采用降低了散户投资者的影响力

交换费用渴望或短裤以弥补杠杆需求的不平衡。在一个均衡的市场中，8小时的资金利率徘徊在零接近。

Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate, 8-hour. Source: CoinGlassExchanges charge either longs or shorts to compensate for imbalances in leveraged demand. In a well-balanced market, the 8-hour funding rate hovers around zero, which has been the case for the past few weeks. Periods of heightened excitement can push this rate above 0.20%, which is equivalent to 1.8% per month.

比特币永久期货融资率，8小时。资料来源：Coinglassexchanges的费用是长期或短裤，以弥补杠杆需求的不平衡。在一个均衡的市场中，8小时的资金汇率徘徊在零约为零，过去几周一直如此。兴奋期的提高可以将该速率提高到0.20％以上，相当于每月1.8％。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate adoption reduced retail investors’ influenceThe launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the growing adoption of BTC reserves by corporations have diminished the influence of retail investors. For context, the spot BTC ETFs collectively hold 6.7% of the total Bitcoin supply, while companies such as MicroStrategy, MARA Holdings, Tether, Tesla, and Coinbase control an additional 4.3%.

现货比特币ETF和企业采用减少了零售投资者的影响力推出现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），公司越来越多地采用BTC储备，从而减少了零售投资者的影响力。在上下文中，BTC ETF集体占总比特币供应的6.7％，而MicroStrategy，Mara Holdings，Tether，Tether，Tesla和Coinbase等公司则额外控制了4.3％。

Institutional demand for Bitcoin futures has surged, leading the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to capture 85% of the monthly futures market. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and OKX continue to dominate perpetual contracts, the preferred instrument among retail traders. This shift highlights the declining influence of retail participation in Bitcoin price discovery.

对比特币期货的机构需求激增，导致芝加哥商业交易所（CME）占据了每月期货市场的85％。同时，诸如Binance，Bybit和Okx之类的加密货币交易所继续占据永久合同，这是零售商人中首选的工具。这种转变强调了零售参与比特币价格发现的影响下降。

Bitcoin futures monthly contracts open interest, USD. Source: Laevitas.chAdvertisementManage 300+ assets securely with Uphold: innovative tools and a 100%+ reserve model. Get started!CME’s $18.6 billion open interest in monthly BTC futures has become a critical benchmark, offering global hedge funds and investment banks a regulated gateway to gain exposure to Bitcoin. The instrument facilitates both long and short positions while ensuring liquidity and access to leverage.

比特币期货每月合同开放利息，美元。资料来源：Laevitas.ChadvertisementManage 300多个资产牢固地使用：创新工具和100％+储备模型。入门！CME在每月BTC期货中的186亿美元开放兴趣已成为一个关键的基准，为全球对冲基金提供，投资银行是一个受监管的门户，以获取对比特币的暴露。该仪器在确保流动性和获得杠杆率的同时，促进了长时间和短职位。

Similarly, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 introduced a new class of investors, including pension funds, wealth managers, and retirement savings accounts. These instruments have surpassed $120 billion in assets under management (AUM), enhancing market liquidity, improving price discovery, and supporting the development of ETF options listed on the NYSE, CBOE, and Nasdaq.

同样，2024年初的现货比特币ETF推出，推出了一类新的投资者，包括养老基金，财富管理人员和退休储蓄帐户。这些工具已超过管理资产的1,200亿美元（AUM），提高了市场流动性，提高了价格发现并支持纽约证券交易所，CBOE和NASDAQ上列出的ETF期权的开发。

While spot Bitcoin ETFs are not directly tied to Bitcoin’s price, the success of MicroStrategy’s stock and debt offerings has created an alternative liquidity channel. This has lowered barriers for investors unable to hold spot Bitcoin ETFs, as seen in the recent $500 million investment by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund.

尽管现货比特币ETF并未与比特币的价格直接相关，但MicroStrategy股票和债务产品的成功创造了替代的流动性渠道。正如挪威的主权财富基金最近的5亿美元投资中所示，这已经降低了无法持有现货比特币ETF的投资者的障碍。

Rather than focusing solely on futures demand, traders should analyze the Bitcoin options market to gauge professional sentiment on potential downturns. The 25% delta skew metric (put-call ratio) typically ranges between -6% and +6% in neutral markets, moving below this range in bullish conditions.

交易者不仅要专注于期货需求，还应该分析比特币期权市场，以评估潜在的低迷情绪。在中性市场中，25％的三角洲偏斜度量标准（POT -CALL比率）通常在-6％至 +6％之间，在看涨条件下移动到此范围以下。

Bitcoin options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.chBetween Jan. 21 and Jan. 27, whales and market makers displayed optimism regarding Bitcoin’s price, but sentiment became more balanced after BTC retested the $98,000 support level. Currently, the -5% delta skew reflects a moderate level of optimism, indicating a favorable environment for potential Bitcoin price appreciation.

比特币选项在Deribit上25％的Delta偏斜（plat-call）。资料来源：1月21日和1月27日之间的Laevitas.Chbet，鲸鱼和做市商对比特币的价格表示乐观，但在BTC重新测试了98,000美元的支持水平之后，情绪变得更加平衡。目前，-5％的三角洲偏度反映了中等水平的乐观态度，这表明潜在的比特币价格升值的环境有利。

However, excessive confidence can be a warning sign, as routine price corrections often lead to liquidations. Some of the hesitation among investors as Bitcoin approaches its all-time high stems from US President Trump’s self-imposed Feb. 1 decision to implement 25% import tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

但是，由于常规价格校正通常会导致清算，因此过度信心可能是一个警告信号。当比特币接近其历史悠久的高位时，投资者的一些犹豫来自美国总统2月1日自我实施的决定，决定对加拿大，墨西哥和中国实施25％的进口关税。

Related: Bitcoin's February momentum hinges on next week's labor market dataAdditionally, concerns over slowing revenue growth among major global corporations, particularly Apple, have contributed to uncertainty. The rise of China’s DeepSeek AI model has intensified doubts about US tech sector capital expenditures. As a result, Bitcoin investors are wary of a broader economic slowdown, which could favor cash positions and short-term government bonds.

相关：比特币的2月份势头取决于下周的劳动力市场数据，对主要全球公司（尤其是苹果公司）的收入增长放缓的担忧导致了不确定性。中国DeepSeek AI模型的兴起激发了人们对美国技术部门资本支出的怀疑。结果，比特币投资者对更广泛的经济放缓保持警惕，这可能有利于现金状况和短期政府债券。

Ultimately, the lack of excessive bullish sentiment in Bitcoin derivatives is not a sign of weakness but rather a reflection of broader market caution beyond the cryptocurrency sector.

最终，比特币衍生品缺乏过多的看涨情绪并不是弱点的迹象，而是反映出加密货币领域以外的更广泛的市场警告。

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

本文是出于一般信息目的，不打算被视为法律或投资建议。这里表达的观点，思想和观点是作者独自一人，不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的观点和观点。

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