比特幣（BTC）永久期貨融資率接近零，因為現貨ETF和企業採用降低了散戶投資者的影響力

交換費用渴望或短褲以彌補槓桿需求的不平衡。在一個均衡的市場中，8小時的資金利率徘徊在零接近。

Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate, 8-hour. Source: CoinGlassExchanges charge either longs or shorts to compensate for imbalances in leveraged demand. In a well-balanced market, the 8-hour funding rate hovers around zero, which has been the case for the past few weeks. Periods of heightened excitement can push this rate above 0.20%, which is equivalent to 1.8% per month.

比特幣永久期貨融資率，8小時。資料來源：Coinglassexchanges的費用是長期或短褲，以彌補槓桿需求的不平衡。在一個均衡的市場中，8小時的資金匯率徘徊在零約為零，過去幾週一直如此。興奮期的提高可以將該速率提高到0.20％以上，相當於每月1.8％。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate adoption reduced retail investors’ influenceThe launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the growing adoption of BTC reserves by corporations have diminished the influence of retail investors. For context, the spot BTC ETFs collectively hold 6.7% of the total Bitcoin supply, while companies such as MicroStrategy, MARA Holdings, Tether, Tesla, and Coinbase control an additional 4.3%.

現貨比特幣ETF和企業採用減少了零售投資者的影響力推出現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF），公司越來越多地採用BTC儲備，從而減少了零售投資者的影響力。在上下文中，BTC ETF集體佔總比特幣供應的6.7％，而MicroStrategy，Mara Holdings，Tether，Tether，Tesla和Coinbase等公司則額外控制了4.3％。

Institutional demand for Bitcoin futures has surged, leading the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to capture 85% of the monthly futures market. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and OKX continue to dominate perpetual contracts, the preferred instrument among retail traders. This shift highlights the declining influence of retail participation in Bitcoin price discovery.

對比特幣期貨的機構需求激增，導致芝加哥商業交易所（CME）佔據了每月期貨市場的85％。同時，諸如Binance，Bybit和Okx之類的加密貨幣交易所繼續佔據永久合同，這是零售商人中首選的工具。這種轉變強調了零售參與比特幣價格發現的影響下降。

Bitcoin futures monthly contracts open interest, USD. Source: Laevitas.chAdvertisementManage 300+ assets securely with Uphold: innovative tools and a 100%+ reserve model. Get started!CME’s $18.6 billion open interest in monthly BTC futures has become a critical benchmark, offering global hedge funds and investment banks a regulated gateway to gain exposure to Bitcoin. The instrument facilitates both long and short positions while ensuring liquidity and access to leverage.

比特幣期貨每月合同開放利息，美元。資料來源：Laevitas.ChadvertisementManage 300多個資產牢固地使用：創新工具和100％+儲備模型。入門！CME在每月BTC期貨中的186億美元開放興趣已成為一個關鍵的基準，為全球對沖基金提供，投資銀行是一個受監管的門戶，以獲取對比特幣的暴露。該儀器在確保流動性和獲得槓桿率的同時，促進了長時間和短職位。

Similarly, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 introduced a new class of investors, including pension funds, wealth managers, and retirement savings accounts. These instruments have surpassed $120 billion in assets under management (AUM), enhancing market liquidity, improving price discovery, and supporting the development of ETF options listed on the NYSE, CBOE, and Nasdaq.

同樣，2024年初的現貨比特幣ETF推出，推出了一類新的投資者，包括養老基金，財富管理人員和退休儲蓄帳戶。這些工具已經超過了管理層的1,200億美元資產（AUM），增強了市場流動性，提高了價格發現並支持紐約證券交易所，CBOE和NASDAQ上列出的ETF期權的開發。

While spot Bitcoin ETFs are not directly tied to Bitcoin’s price, the success of MicroStrategy’s stock and debt offerings has created an alternative liquidity channel. This has lowered barriers for investors unable to hold spot Bitcoin ETFs, as seen in the recent $500 million investment by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund.

儘管現貨比特幣ETF並未與比特幣的價格直接相關，但MicroStrategy股票和債務產品的成功創造了替代的流動性渠道。正如挪威的主權財富基金最近的5億美元投資中所示，這已經降低了無法持有現貨比特幣ETF的投資者的障礙。

Rather than focusing solely on futures demand, traders should analyze the Bitcoin options market to gauge professional sentiment on potential downturns. The 25% delta skew metric (put-call ratio) typically ranges between -6% and +6% in neutral markets, moving below this range in bullish conditions.

交易者不僅要專注於期貨需求，還應該分析比特幣期權市場，以評估潛在的低迷情緒。在中性市場中，25％的三角洲偏斜度量標準（POT -CALL比率）通常在-6％至 +6％之間，在看漲條件下移動到此範圍以下。

Bitcoin options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.chBetween Jan. 21 and Jan. 27, whales and market makers displayed optimism regarding Bitcoin’s price, but sentiment became more balanced after BTC retested the $98,000 support level. Currently, the -5% delta skew reflects a moderate level of optimism, indicating a favorable environment for potential Bitcoin price appreciation.

比特幣選項在Deribit上25％的Delta偏斜（plat-call）。資料來源：1月21日和1月27日之間的Laevitas.Chbet，鯨魚和做市商對比特幣的價格表示樂觀，但在BTC重新測試了98,000美元的支持水平之後，情緒變得更加平衡。目前，-5％的三角洲偏度反映了中等水平的樂觀態度，這表明潛在的比特幣價格升值的環境有利。

However, excessive confidence can be a warning sign, as routine price corrections often lead to liquidations. Some of the hesitation among investors as Bitcoin approaches its all-time high stems from US President Trump’s self-imposed Feb. 1 decision to implement 25% import tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

但是，由於常規價格校正通常會導致清算，因此過度信心可能是一個警告信號。當比特幣接近其歷史悠久的高位時，投資者的一些猶豫來自美國總統2月1日自我實施的決定，決定對加拿大，墨西哥和中國實施25％的進口關稅。

Related: Bitcoin's February momentum hinges on next week's labor market dataAdditionally, concerns over slowing revenue growth among major global corporations, particularly Apple, have contributed to uncertainty. The rise of China’s DeepSeek AI model has intensified doubts about US tech sector capital expenditures. As a result, Bitcoin investors are wary of a broader economic slowdown, which could favor cash positions and short-term government bonds.

相關：比特幣的2月份勢頭取決於下週的勞動力市場數據，對主要全球公司（尤其是蘋果公司）的收入增長放緩的擔憂導致了不確定性。中國DeepSeek AI模型的興起激發了人們對美國技術部門資本支出的懷疑。結果，比特幣投資者對更廣泛的經濟放緩保持警惕，這可能有利於現金狀況和短期政府債券。

Ultimately, the lack of excessive bullish sentiment in Bitcoin derivatives is not a sign of weakness but rather a reflection of broader market caution beyond the cryptocurrency sector.

最終，比特幣衍生品缺乏過多的看漲情緒並不是弱點的跡象，而是反映出加密貨幣領域以外的更廣泛的市場警告。

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

本文是出於一般信息目的，不打算被視為法律或投資建議。這裡表達的觀點，思想和觀點是作者獨自一人，不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的觀點和觀點。

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