自 11 月 5 日唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统以来，比特币 (BTC) 的表现优于标准普尔 500 指数

自 11 月 5 日唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统以来，比特币 (BTC) 上涨了约 47%，大幅超过标准普尔 500 指数 4% 的涨幅。

The price of bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin since the November 5 election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. While the stock market index is up by only 4%, BTC has gained around 47% over the same period.

自 11 月 5 日唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统以来，比特币 (BTC) 的价格大幅跑赢标准普尔 500 指数。尽管股市指数仅上涨 4%，但 BTC 同期却上涨了 47% 左右。

The incoming president, of course, has made clear his friendliness towards bitcoin and crypto. Also worth consideration is the Republican sweep of the Senate and House of Representatives, where laws that might affect crypto will ultimately be passed.

当然，即将上任的总统已经明确表示了他对比特币和加密货币的友好态度。同样值得考虑的是共和党在参议院和众议院的横扫，最终将通过可能影响加密货币的法律。

CoinDesk spoke with Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise in Europe, about other factors affecting the divergence.

CoinDesk 与 Bitwise 欧洲研究主管 Andre Dragosch 讨论了影响差异的其他因素。

“My view on bitcoin versus S&P 500 is that the stock market has been negatively affected by the Fed's hawkish rate cut in December,” Dragosch said. “The Fed revised its planned rate cuts for 2025 to 2 rate cuts only, less than previously telegraphed and also less than previously anticipated by traditional financial markets.”

Dragosch 表示：“我对比特币与标准普尔 500 指数的看法是，股市受到了美联储 12 月份鹰派降息的负面影响。” “美联储将 2025 年降息计划修改为仅 2 次降息，降息幅度低于此前公布的幅度，也低于传统金融市场此前的预期。”

At the same time, the DXY index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of the major currencies, is up by 5%, putting further pressure on risk assets. That might typically include a hurt on bitcoin, but Dragosch explains that it held up relatively well thanks to other factors, the ongoing bitcoin supply deficit on exchanges being among them.

与此同时，衡量美元兑一篮子主要货币价值的DXY指数上涨5%，给风险资产带来进一步压力。这通常可能会对比特币造成伤害，但 Dragosch 解释说，由于其他因素，比特币的表现相对较好，交易所持续的比特币供应短缺就是其中之一。

“Bitcoin exchange balances have continued to drift lower despite profit-taking,” he continued.

“尽管出现了获利了结，但比特币交易余额仍在继续下降，”他继续说道。

Of late though, bitcoin and the S&P 500 have again begun moving closely together, their correlation hitting 0.88 (with 0 being no correlation and 1 begin absolute correlation) over the most recent 20-day moving average.

不过最近，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数再次开始密切相关，在最近的 20 天移动平均线中，它们的相关性达到 0.88（0 表示不相关，1 开始绝对相关）。

“While on-chain factors will likely provide a significant tailwind at least until mid-2025, the deterioration in the macro picture could pose short-term risks for bitcoin as well, especially on account of the still relatively high correlation with the S&P 500,” Dragosch concluded.

“虽然至少到 2025 年中期，链上因素可能会提供显着的推动力，但宏观形势的恶化也可能给比特币带来短期风险，特别是考虑到与标准普尔 500 指数的相关性仍然相对较高， “德拉戈什总结道。