自 11 月 5 日唐納德·川普當選美國總統以來，比特幣 (BTC) 的表現優於標準普爾 500 指數

自 11 月 5 日唐納德·川普當選美國總統以來，比特幣 (BTC) 上漲了約 47%，大幅超過標準普爾 500 指數 4% 的漲幅。

The price of bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin since the November 5 election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. While the stock market index is up by only 4%, BTC has gained around 47% over the same period.

自 11 月 5 日唐納德·川普當選美國總統以來，比特幣 (BTC) 的價格大幅跑贏標準普爾 500 指數。儘管股市指數僅上漲 4%，但 BTC 同期卻上漲了 47% 左右。

The incoming president, of course, has made clear his friendliness towards bitcoin and crypto. Also worth consideration is the Republican sweep of the Senate and House of Representatives, where laws that might affect crypto will ultimately be passed.

當然，即將上任的總統已經明確表示了他對比特幣和加密貨幣的友好態度。同樣值得考慮的是共和黨在參議院和眾議院的橫掃，最終將通過可能影響加密貨幣的法律。

CoinDesk spoke with Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise in Europe, about other factors affecting the divergence.

CoinDesk 與 Bitwise 歐洲研究主管 Andre Dragosch 討論了影響差異的其他因素。

“My view on bitcoin versus S&P 500 is that the stock market has been negatively affected by the Fed's hawkish rate cut in December,” Dragosch said. “The Fed revised its planned rate cuts for 2025 to 2 rate cuts only, less than previously telegraphed and also less than previously anticipated by traditional financial markets.”

Dragosch 表示：“我對比特幣與標準普爾 500 指數的看法是，股市受到了聯準會 12 月鷹派降息的負面影響。” “聯準會將 2025 年降息計畫修改為僅 2 次降息，降息幅度低於先前公佈的幅度，也低於傳統金融市場先前的預期。”

At the same time, the DXY index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of the major currencies, is up by 5%, putting further pressure on risk assets. That might typically include a hurt on bitcoin, but Dragosch explains that it held up relatively well thanks to other factors, the ongoing bitcoin supply deficit on exchanges being among them.

同時，衡量美元兌一籃子主要貨幣價值的DXY指數上漲5%，造成風險資產進一步壓力。這通常可能會對比特幣造成傷害，但 Dragosch 解釋說，由於其他因素，比特幣的表現相對較好，交易所持續的比特幣供應短缺就是其中之一。

“Bitcoin exchange balances have continued to drift lower despite profit-taking,” he continued.

「儘管出現了獲利了結，但比特幣交易餘額仍在繼續下降，」他繼續說道。

Of late though, bitcoin and the S&P 500 have again begun moving closely together, their correlation hitting 0.88 (with 0 being no correlation and 1 begin absolute correlation) over the most recent 20-day moving average.

不過最近，比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數再次開始密切相關，在最近的 20 天移動平均線中，它們的相關性達到 0.88（0 表示不相關，1 開始絕對相關）。

“While on-chain factors will likely provide a significant tailwind at least until mid-2025, the deterioration in the macro picture could pose short-term risks for bitcoin as well, especially on account of the still relatively high correlation with the S&P 500,” Dragosch concluded.

「雖然至少到2025 年中期，鏈上因素可能會提供顯著的推動力，但宏觀形勢的惡化也可能給比特幣帶來短期風險，特別是考慮到與標準普爾500 指數的相關性仍然相對較高， 「德拉戈什總結。