MicroStrategy 的市场成熟标志着比特币市场的成熟

随着 MicroStrategy 的资产净值 (NAV) 溢价收窄，专家们对 MicroStrategy 的 MSTR 越来越多地利用比特币 BTC/USD 策略表示担忧

As MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) continues to hold a significant portion of its treasury in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC),ксперты are raising concerns about the company's increasingly leveraged BTC strategy, especially in the context of a narrowing Net Asset Value (NAV) premium and a slowing pace of Bitcoin acquisitions.

由于 MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）继续持有很大一部分资金为比特币（加密货币：BTC），ксперты 引发了对该公司日益杠杆化的 BTC 策略的担忧，特别是在资产净值（NAV）溢价缩小的背景下以及比特币收购步伐放缓。

While initially lauded for its BTC-centric approach, as its software business becomes negligible, the company has essentially become a Bitcoin proxy,不禁令人质疑其策略的可持续性。

While initially lauded for its BTC-centric approach, as its software business becomes negligible, the company has essentially become a Bitcoin proxy,不禁令人质疑其策略的可持续性。

What Happened: In the past month, MSTR declined 12% while Bitcoin rose 3%. This discrepancy highlights the diverging paths of the two assets, raising questions about the sustainability of MicroStrategy's approach.

发生了什么：过去一个月，MSTR 下跌 12%，而比特币上涨 3%。这种差异凸显了两种资产的不同路径，引发了人们对 MicroStrategy 方法可持续性的质疑。

Despite the company holding $45 billion in Bitcoin, its $88 billion market cap is supported by a 93% premium, which has been steadily decreasing since Nov. 20.

尽管该公司持有 450 亿美元的比特币，但其 880 亿美元的市值是由 93% 的溢价支撑的，而溢价自 11 月 20 日以来一直在稳步下降。

This narrowing premium a key metric reflecting the market's valuation of MSTR relative to its Bitcoin holdings has several contributing factors, according to experts.

专家表示，溢价的缩小是反映 MSTR 相对于其比特币持有量的市场估值的关键指标，有几个影响因素。

Azeem Khan, co-founder of Morph, sees the shrinking premium as primarily driven by two factors: “dilution — MicroStrategy issuing more shares to buy Bitcoin spreads value thinner, making each share less appealing” and a “cooling market” after the initial excitement over its Bitcoin-centric strategy.

Morph 联合创始人 Azeem Khan 认为溢价缩水主要是由两个因素驱动的：“稀释——MicroStrategy 发行更多股票来购买比特币，使得价值价差变薄，使得每股吸引力下降”，以及在最初的兴奋之后“市场降温”其以比特币为中心的战略。

"The narrowing is a sign of market maturation, indicating a need for MSTR to show strategic value beyond its BTC holdings, such as technology, treasury management, or new innovations," said Todd Ruoff, CEO of Autonomys.

Autonomys 首席执行官托德·鲁夫 (Todd Ruoff) 表示：“规模缩小是市场成熟的标志，表明 MSTR 需要展示其持有的 BTC 之外的战略价值，例如技术、资金管理或新创新。”

"Heightened Bitcoin volatility and increased short-term risk pricing are impacting the premium," said Rich Rines, an initial contributor to Core, adding that "alternative leveraged Bitcoin plays are now emerging."

Core 的最初撰稿人 Rich Rines 表示：“比特币波动性加剧和短期风险定价增加正在影响溢价。”他补充说，“另类杠杆比特币游戏现在正在兴起。”

Several experts also commented on the slowing pace of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases.

几位专家还对 MicroStrategy 比特币购买速度放缓发表了评论。

"The strategy is like a house of cards where rising BTC prices enable further debt or share issuance for more BTC purchases, in a feedback loop," said Khan, who is critical of the approach.

“这种策略就像纸牌屋一样，比特币价格上涨使得在反馈循环中进一步发行债务或发行股票以购买更多比特币，”汗说，他对这种方法持批评态度。

"It's a more disciplined approach, especially in a challenging economic environment. We should evaluate MSTR as a company managing both crypto assets and operational risks," said Ruoff.

Ruoff 表示：“这是一种更加严格的方法，尤其是在充满挑战的经济环境中。我们应该将 MSTR 视为一家同时管理加密资产和运营风险的公司。”

"Reduced purchases may be a misnomer, as MSTR was unexpectedly front-loading a lot of its 3yr buying plan. Also, keep in mind that MSTR has a fixed buying strategy, and this year's allocation was already completed in Q1," said Peter Chung, Head of Research at Presto Labs.

Peter Chung 表示：“减少购买量可能用词不当，因为 MSTR 出人意料地提前加载了许多 3 年购买计划。此外，请记住 MSTR 有固定的购买策略，今年的分配已在第一季度完成。” ，Presto 实验室研究主管。

"The premium essentially funds their ability to acquire more BTC, so when it's compressed, their buying capacity slows,” said Rines, connecting the reduced purchasing directly to the shrinking NAV premium.

“溢价本质上是为他们购买更多比特币的能力提供资金，因此当溢价被压缩时，他们的购买能力就会放缓，”莱恩斯表示，他将购买量的减少与资产净值溢价的缩减直接联系起来。

What's Next: Experts are divided in their short and medium-term assessments of MicroStrategy's prospects.

下一步：专家对 MicroStrategy 前景的短期和中期评估存在分歧。

"Short-term gains due to the bullish crypto market, but I fear a medium-term bear market triggered by an event forcing MSTR to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings," said Khan, who expects short-term gains.

Khan 表示：“加密货币市场看涨带来了短期收益，但我担心，迫使 MSTR 清算其持有的比特币的事件会引发中期熊市。”他预计短期收益。

"Bitcoin performed exceptionally well before Michael Saylor started buying and will continue to thrive without it. However, having so much of the Bitcoin supply concentrated in a single entity creates a single point of failure for Bitcoin, which is not in line with Bitcoin's core values," he added.

“在 Michael Saylor 开始购买比特币之前，比特币的表现非常出色，即使没有比特币，比特币也将继续蓬勃发展。然而，如此多的比特币供应集中在一个实体中，这给比特币带来了单点故障，这不符合比特币的核心价值观，”他补充道。

"Volatility and earnings scrutiny in the short term, but in the medium term, MSTR will likely need to redefine its narrative," said Ruoff.

Ruoff 表示：“短期内会出现波动性和收益审查，但从中期来看，MSTR 可能需要重新定义其叙述。”

"The quiet period before the 4Q24 earnings release may impact sentiment," said Chung.

“24 年第四季度财报发布之前的平静期可能会影响市场情绪，”Chung 表示。

"Continued volatility, which is tied to Bitcoin's performance, while the NAV premium will likely face continued compression," said Rines.

莱恩斯表示：“持续的波动与比特币的表现有关，而资产净值溢价可能会面临持续压缩。”

Bitcoin Bull Market Not Reliant On MicroStrategy: Importantly, all experts agreed that Bitcoin's future is not reliant on MicroStrategy's actions.

比特币牛市不依赖 MicroStrategy：重要的是，所有专家都同意比特币的未来不依赖 MicroStrategy 的行动。

"Bitcoin performed exceptionally well before Michael Saylor started buying and will continue to thrive without it," said Khan.

Khan 表示：“在 Michael Saylor 开始购买比特币之前，比特币的表现非常出色，即使没有比特币，比特币也将继续蓬勃发展。”

"Bitcoin's maturity as a global asset has reduced reliance on single entities. The decoupling of MSTR from BTC's performance is a healthy sign," said Ruoff.

Ruoff 表示：“比特币作为全球资产的成熟度减少了对单一实体的依赖。MSTR 与 BTC 表现的脱钩是一个健康的迹象。”

"Innovations like Bitcoin staking and DeFi are sustaining market growth. Even if MicroStrategy slows its purchases, demand from other institutions and advancements in Bitcoin DeFi will ensure continued adoption," said Rines.

Rines 表示：“比特币质押和 DeFi 等创新正在维持市场增长。即使 MicroStrategy 放慢购买速度，其他机构的需求以及比特币 DeFi 的进步也将确保持续采用。”