MicroStrategy 的市場成熟性標誌著比特幣市場的成熟

隨著 MicroStrategy 的資產淨值 (NAV) 溢價收窄，專家們對 MicroStrategy 的 MSTR 越來越多地利用比特幣 BTC/USD 策略表示擔憂

As MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) continues to hold a significant portion of its treasury in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC),ксперты are raising concerns about the company's increasingly leveraged BTC strategy, especially in the context of a narrowing Net Asset Value (NAV) premium and a slowing pace of Bitcoin acquisitions.

由於MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）繼續持有比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）很大一部分資金，ксперты 引發了對該公司日益槓桿化的BTC 策略的擔憂，特別是在資產淨值（NAV ）溢價縮小的背景下以及比特幣收購步伐放緩。

While initially lauded for its BTC-centric approach, as its software business becomes negligible, the company has essentially become a Bitcoin proxy,不禁令人质疑其策略的可持续性。

While initially lauded for its BTC-centric approach, as its software business becomes negligible, the company has essentially become a Bitcoin proxy,不禁令人質疑其策略的可持續性。

What Happened: In the past month, MSTR declined 12% while Bitcoin rose 3%. This discrepancy highlights the diverging paths of the two assets, raising questions about the sustainability of MicroStrategy's approach.

發生了什麼事：過去一個月，MSTR 下跌 12%，而比特幣上漲 3%。這種差異凸顯了兩種資產的不同路徑，引發了人們對 MicroStrategy 方法可持續性的質疑。

Despite the company holding $45 billion in Bitcoin, its $88 billion market cap is supported by a 93% premium, which has been steadily decreasing since Nov. 20.

儘管該公司持有 450 億美元的比特幣，但其 880 億美元的市值是由 93% 的溢價支撐的，而溢價自 11 月 20 日以來一直在穩步下降。

This narrowing premium a key metric reflecting the market's valuation of MSTR relative to its Bitcoin holdings has several contributing factors, according to experts.

專家表示，溢價的縮小是反映 MSTR 相對於其比特幣持有量的市場估值的關鍵指標，有幾個影響因素。

Azeem Khan, co-founder of Morph, sees the shrinking premium as primarily driven by two factors: “dilution — MicroStrategy issuing more shares to buy Bitcoin spreads value thinner, making each share less appealing” and a “cooling market” after the initial excitement over its Bitcoin-centric strategy.

Morph 聯合創始人Azeem Khan 認為溢價縮水主要是由兩個因素驅動的：“稀釋——MicroStrategy 發行更多股票來購買比特幣，使得價值價差變薄，使得每股吸引力下降”，以及在最初的興奮之後「市場降溫」其以比特幣為中心的策略。

"The narrowing is a sign of market maturation, indicating a need for MSTR to show strategic value beyond its BTC holdings, such as technology, treasury management, or new innovations," said Todd Ruoff, CEO of Autonomys.

Autonomys 執行長 Todd Ruoff 表示：“規模縮小是市場成熟的標誌，表明 MSTR 需要展示其持有的 BTC 之外的戰略價值，例如技術、資金管理或新創新。”

"Heightened Bitcoin volatility and increased short-term risk pricing are impacting the premium," said Rich Rines, an initial contributor to Core, adding that "alternative leveraged Bitcoin plays are now emerging."

Core 的最初撰稿人 Rich Rines 表示：“比特幣波動性加劇和短期風險定價增加正在影響溢價。”他補充說，“另類槓桿比特幣遊戲現在正在興起。”

Several experts also commented on the slowing pace of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases.

幾位專家也對 MicroStrategy 比特幣購買速度放緩發表了評論。

"The strategy is like a house of cards where rising BTC prices enable further debt or share issuance for more BTC purchases, in a feedback loop," said Khan, who is critical of the approach.

「這種策略就像紙牌屋一樣，比特幣價格上漲使得在反饋循環中可以進一步發行債務或發行股票以購買更多比特幣，」汗說，他對這種方法持批評態度。

"It's a more disciplined approach, especially in a challenging economic environment. We should evaluate MSTR as a company managing both crypto assets and operational risks," said Ruoff.

Ruoff 表示：“這是一種更嚴格的方法，尤其是在充滿挑戰的經濟環境中。我們應該將 MSTR 視為同時管理加密資產和營運風險的公司。”

"Reduced purchases may be a misnomer, as MSTR was unexpectedly front-loading a lot of its 3yr buying plan. Also, keep in mind that MSTR has a fixed buying strategy, and this year's allocation was already completed in Q1," said Peter Chung, Head of Research at Presto Labs.

Peter Chung 表示：「減少購買量可能用詞不當，因為 MSTR 出人意料地提前加載了許多 3 年購買計劃。此外，請記住 MSTR 有固定的購買策略，今年的分配已在第一季度完成。」 ， Presto 實驗室研究主管。

"The premium essentially funds their ability to acquire more BTC, so when it's compressed, their buying capacity slows,” said Rines, connecting the reduced purchasing directly to the shrinking NAV premium.

「溢價本質上是為他們購買更多比特幣的能力提供資金，因此當溢價被壓縮時，他們的購買能力就會放緩，」萊恩斯表示，他將購買量的減少與資產淨值溢價的縮減直接聯繫起來。

What's Next: Experts are divided in their short and medium-term assessments of MicroStrategy's prospects.

下一步：專家對 MicroStrategy 前景的短期和中期評估存在分歧。

"Short-term gains due to the bullish crypto market, but I fear a medium-term bear market triggered by an event forcing MSTR to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings," said Khan, who expects short-term gains.

Khan 表示：「加密貨幣市場看漲帶來了短期收益，但我擔心，迫使 MSTR 清算其持有的比特幣的事件會引發中期熊市。」他預計短期收益。

"Bitcoin performed exceptionally well before Michael Saylor started buying and will continue to thrive without it. However, having so much of the Bitcoin supply concentrated in a single entity creates a single point of failure for Bitcoin, which is not in line with Bitcoin's core values," he added.

「在Michael Saylor 開始購買比特幣之前，比特幣的表現非常出色，並且在沒有比特幣的情況下也將繼續蓬勃發展。然而，如此多的比特幣供應集中在一個實體中，這給比特幣帶來了單點故障，這不符合比特幣的核心價值觀，」他補充道。

"Volatility and earnings scrutiny in the short term, but in the medium term, MSTR will likely need to redefine its narrative," said Ruoff.

Ruoff 表示：“短期內會出現波動性和收益審查，但從中期來看，MSTR 可能需要重新定義其敘述。”

"The quiet period before the 4Q24 earnings release may impact sentiment," said Chung.

「24 年第四季財報發布之前的平靜期可能會影響市場情緒，」Chung 表示。

"Continued volatility, which is tied to Bitcoin's performance, while the NAV premium will likely face continued compression," said Rines.

萊恩斯表示：“持續的波動與比特幣的表現有關，而資產淨值溢價可能會面臨持續壓縮。”

Bitcoin Bull Market Not Reliant On MicroStrategy: Importantly, all experts agreed that Bitcoin's future is not reliant on MicroStrategy's actions.

比特幣牛市不依賴 MicroStrategy：重要的是，所有專家都同意比特幣的未來不依賴 MicroStrategy 的行動。

"Bitcoin performed exceptionally well before Michael Saylor started buying and will continue to thrive without it," said Khan.

Khan 表示：“在 Michael Saylor 開始購買比特幣之前，比特幣的表現非常出色，即使沒有比特幣，比特幣也將繼續蓬勃發展。”

"Bitcoin's maturity as a global asset has reduced reliance on single entities. The decoupling of MSTR from BTC's performance is a healthy sign," said Ruoff.

Ruoff 表示：“比特幣作為全球資產的成熟度減少了對單一實體的依賴。MSTR 與 BTC 表現的脫鉤是一個健康的跡象。”

"Innovations like Bitcoin staking and DeFi are sustaining market growth. Even if MicroStrategy slows its purchases, demand from other institutions and advancements in Bitcoin DeFi will ensure continued adoption," said Rines.

Rines 表示：“比特幣質押和 DeFi 等創新正在維持市場成長。即使 MicroStrategy 放慢購買速度，其他機構的需求以及比特幣 DeFi 的進步也將確保持續採用。”