比特币 (BTC) 期权信号看涨偏见，因为 SPX 期权偏差反映了更大的下行风险

现在还处于 2025 年初，我们已经看到比特币和标准普尔 500 指数之间存在显着差异。

Bitcoin Deribit-listed options show a bullish bias, while S&P 500 options reflect greater downside risk.

比特币 Deribit 上市的期权显示出看涨倾向，而标准普尔 500 指数期权则反映出更大的下行风险。

After a turbulent 2024, mainstream financial markets are setting the stage for a new year. While inflation remains stubbornly high and a recession still looms, risk-taking has picked up across financial markets in the past two months.

在经历了动荡的 2024 年之后，主流金融市场正在为新的一年做好准备。尽管通胀仍然居高不下，经济衰退仍然迫在眉睫，但过去两个月金融市场的冒险行为有所抬头。

In the crypto markets, BTC is looking to secure a foothold above $100,000, while ETH breached the $3,800 level during morning trade in Asia.

在加密货币市场中，BTC 寻求站稳 100,000 美元以上，而 ETH 在亚洲早盘交易中突破 3,800 美元水平。

The broader stock market, meanwhile, has a history of providing risk-on/off cues to risk assets, including BTC. So, what are the options markets saying about the S&P 500 and how could that impact bitcoin?

与此同时，更广泛的股票市场历来为包括比特币在内的风险资产提供风险开/关线索。那么，期权市场对标准普尔 500 指数有何看法？这将如何影响比特币？

According to Cboe data, the SPX options skew now reflects greater downside risk than it did a year ago.

根据芝加哥期权交易所的数据，SPX 期权偏差现在反映出比一年前更大的下行风险。

The defensive positioning in stocks perhaps stems from concerns that President-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration could be a "sell-the-news" event.

股市的防御性定位或许源于对当选总统唐纳德·特朗普 1 月 20 日就职典礼可能成为“抛售新闻”事件的担忧。

"Broadly speaking, we see some cracks in the data and think that Trump’s inauguration later this month has a decent chance of being a ‘sell the news’ event after nearly three months of unbridled economic optimism across most sectors," Bruce J Clark, head of rates America at Informa Connect, said on LinkedIn.

布鲁斯·J·克拉克（Bruce J Clark）负责人表示：“总体而言，我们看到数据中存在一些问题，并认为在大多数行业近三个月肆无忌惮的经济乐观情绪之后，本月晚些时候的特朗普就职典礼很有可能成为一场‘推销新闻’的事件。” Informa Connect 的美国利率，在 LinkedIn 上表示。

That raises the question: How will BTC react?

这就提出了一个问题：BTC 将如何反应？

After all, expectations of regulatory clarity under Trump have already seen the cryptocurrency rally to over $100,000 from $70,000 in just two months. A Jan. 20 broader market sell-off could pull down the dollar index and the bond yields, potentially supporting BTC.

毕竟，在特朗普领导下监管明确的预期下，加密货币在短短两个月内就从 70,000 美元上涨至 100,000 美元以上。 1 月 20 日更广泛的市场抛售可能会拉低美元指数和债券收益率，从而可能支撑 BTC。

For now, there are several factors supporting BTC.

目前来看，有几个因素支持BTC。

For instance, the $400 billion in liquidity sucked out of the system in the final two weeks of 2024 is likely to return, greasing asset prices, according to the LondonCryptoClub newsletter. Plus, some of the capital flows from China could find a home in cryptocurrencies.

例如，据 LondonCryptoClub 时事通讯报道，2024 年最后两周从系统中吸出的 4000 亿美元流动性可能会回流，从而推高资产价格。此外，来自中国的部分资本流可能会在加密货币中找到归属。

Bitcoin is again trading at a premium on Coinbase, reflecting stronger Stateside demand while miners are expected to cut back on sales.

比特币在 Coinbase 上的交易价格再次出现溢价，反映出美国需求强劲，而矿商预计将削减销售量。

"The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) for miners remains very positive, hovering around 0.5, suggesting that miners are still in a strong position, with substantial unrealized profits and a preference to hold onto their BTC at this stage," analysts at Bitfinex told CoinDesk.

Bitfinex 分析师表示：“矿商的未实现净损益 (NUPL) 仍然非常乐观，徘徊在 0.5 左右，这表明矿商仍处于强势地位，拥有大量未实现利润，并且现阶段倾向于持有 BTC告诉 CoinDesk。

In the broader market, some traders are dabbling with December 2025 ETH calls at strikes as high as $11,000. Ether is currently trading below $4,000. Over 70 of the top 100 coins by market value were up on a 24-hour basis at press time. Need more evidence of risk-on?

在更广泛的市场中，一些交易员正在尝试以高达 11,000 美元的价格买入 2025 年 12 月的 ETH 看涨期权。以太币目前交易价格低于 4,000 美元。截至发稿时，市值排名前 100 的代币中有超过 70 个在 24 小时内上涨。需要更多冒险证据吗？

That said, keep an eye on the bond market rout, which is fast spreading outside the U.S. Early today, the Japanese 10-year bond yield rose to a 13-year high while its 30-year British counterpart was on the verge of hitting the highest since the late 1990s. That can suck the wind out of risk assets. Stay alert!

尽管如此，请密切关注在美国以外地区迅速蔓延的债券市场溃败今天早些时候，日本 10 年期国债收益率升至 13 年来的高位，而英国 30 年期国债收益率也即将触及 10 年期国债收益率。 20世纪90年代末以来的最高水平。这可能会吸走风险资产的风头。保持警惕！

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By Shaurya MalwaEthereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has offloaded a stash of memecoins sent to him by various communities to fund a charity, on-chain data shows.

链上数据显示，以太坊联合创始人维塔利克·布特林 (Vitalik Buterin) 卸下了各个社区发送给他的大量模因币，用于资助慈善机构。

In the past two days, Buterin has sold $940,900 worth of lesser-known memecoins for the USDC stablecoin and ether. The NEIRO, ESTEE, MARVIN, EBULL, MSTR, and TERMINUS tokens brought in at least $57,000 worth of USDC, while other tokens were sold for less than $40,000.

在过去的两天里，Buterin 已经出售了价值 940,900 美元的不太知名的 memecoin，以换取 USDC 稳定币和以太币。 NEIRO、ESTE​​E、MARVIN、EBULL、MSTR 和 TERMINUS 代币带来了至少价值 57,000 美元的 USDC，而其他代币的售价不到 40,000 美元。

Just over $916,000 was whisked away to a multisign wallet, likely tied to the charity Kanro, according to SpotOnChain.

据 SpotOnChain 称，超过 916,000 美元被转移到一个多重签名钱包中，该钱包可能与慈善机构 Kanro 有关。

Communities often send tokens to Buterin mainly to gain exposure and leverage his influence in the crypto space.

社区经常向 Buterin 发送代币，主要是为了获得曝光度并利用他在加密领域的影响力。

But Buterin’s known philanthropy also plays a role. Communities send tokens expecting him to donate them, indirectly supporting charity. Back in October, Buterin said he would donate any tokens sent to him to charitable causes, though he added that he didn’t support the act.

但 Buterin 众所周知的慈善事业也发挥了作用。社区发送代币期待他捐赠，间接支持慈善事业。早在 10 月份，Buterin 就曾表示，他会将收到的所有代币捐献给慈善事业，但他补充说，他并不支持这一行为。

I appreciate all the memecoins that donate portions of their supply directly to charity.(eg. I saw ebull sent a bunch to various groups last month)Anything that gets sent to me gets donated to charity too (thanks moodeng! The 10B from today is going to anti-airborne…

我感谢所有直接将部分供应量捐赠给慈善机构的模因币。（例如，我上个月看到 ebull 向各个团体发送了一堆）任何发送给我的东西也会捐赠给慈善机构（谢谢moodeng！从今天开始的 10B 是去反空降……

“Anything that gets sent to me

“任何寄给我的东西