比特幣 (BTC) 期權訊號看漲偏見，因為 SPX 期權偏差反映了更大的下行風險

現在還處於 2025 年初，我們已經看到比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數之間存在顯著差異。

Bitcoin Deribit-listed options show a bullish bias, while S&P 500 options reflect greater downside risk.

比特幣 Deribit 上市的選擇權顯示出看漲傾向，而標準普爾 500 指數選擇權則反映出更大的下行風險。

After a turbulent 2024, mainstream financial markets are setting the stage for a new year. While inflation remains stubbornly high and a recession still looms, risk-taking has picked up across financial markets in the past two months.

在經歷了動盪的 2024 年之後，主流金融市場正在為新的一年做好準備。儘管通膨仍居高不下，經濟衰退仍然迫在眉睫，但過去兩個月金融市場的冒險行為卻抬頭。

In the crypto markets, BTC is looking to secure a foothold above $100,000, while ETH breached the $3,800 level during morning trade in Asia.

在加密貨幣市場中，BTC 尋求站穩 10 萬美元以上，而 ETH 在亞洲早盤交易中突破 3,800 美元水平。

The broader stock market, meanwhile, has a history of providing risk-on/off cues to risk assets, including BTC. So, what are the options markets saying about the S&P 500 and how could that impact bitcoin?

同時，更廣泛的股票市場歷來為包括比特幣在內的風險資產提供風險開/關線索。那麼，選擇權市場對標準普爾 500 指數有何看法？

According to Cboe data, the SPX options skew now reflects greater downside risk than it did a year ago.

根據芝加哥期權交易所的數據，SPX 期權偏差現在反映出比一年前更大的下行風險。

The defensive positioning in stocks perhaps stems from concerns that President-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration could be a "sell-the-news" event.

股市的防禦性定位或許源自於對當選總統川普 1 月 20 日就職典禮可能成為「拋售新聞」事件的擔憂。

"Broadly speaking, we see some cracks in the data and think that Trump’s inauguration later this month has a decent chance of being a ‘sell the news’ event after nearly three months of unbridled economic optimism across most sectors," Bruce J Clark, head of rates America at Informa Connect, said on LinkedIn.

布魯斯·J·克拉克（Bruce J Clark）負責人表示：「總體而言，我們看到數據中存在一些問題，並認為在大多數行業近三個月肆無忌憚的經濟樂觀情緒之後，本月晚些時候的川普就職典禮很有可能成為一場『推銷新聞』的事件。

That raises the question: How will BTC react?

這就提出了一個問題：BTC 會如何反應？

After all, expectations of regulatory clarity under Trump have already seen the cryptocurrency rally to over $100,000 from $70,000 in just two months. A Jan. 20 broader market sell-off could pull down the dollar index and the bond yields, potentially supporting BTC.

畢竟，在川普領導下監管明確的預期下，加密貨幣在短短兩個月內就從 7 萬美元上漲至 10 萬美元以上。 1 月 20 日更廣泛的市場拋售可能會拉低美元指數和債券殖利率，這可能會支撐 BTC。

For now, there are several factors supporting BTC.

目前來看，有幾個因素支持BTC。

For instance, the $400 billion in liquidity sucked out of the system in the final two weeks of 2024 is likely to return, greasing asset prices, according to the LondonCryptoClub newsletter. Plus, some of the capital flows from China could find a home in cryptocurrencies.

例如，根據 LondonCryptoClub 時事通訊報告，2024 年最後兩週從系統中吸出的 4,000 億美元流動性可能會回流，從而推高資產價格。此外，來自中國的部分資本流可能會在加密貨幣中找到歸屬。

Bitcoin is again trading at a premium on Coinbase, reflecting stronger Stateside demand while miners are expected to cut back on sales.

比特幣在 Coinbase 上的交易價格再次出現溢價，反映出美國需求強勁，礦商預計將削減銷售量。

"The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) for miners remains very positive, hovering around 0.5, suggesting that miners are still in a strong position, with substantial unrealized profits and a preference to hold onto their BTC at this stage," analysts at Bitfinex told CoinDesk.

Bitfinex 分析師表示：「礦商的未實現淨損益 (NUPL) 仍然非常樂觀，徘徊在 0.5 左右，這表明礦商仍處於強勢地位，擁有大量未實現利潤，並且現階段傾向於持有 BTC告訴CoinDesk 。

In the broader market, some traders are dabbling with December 2025 ETH calls at strikes as high as $11,000. Ether is currently trading below $4,000. Over 70 of the top 100 coins by market value were up on a 24-hour basis at press time. Need more evidence of risk-on?

在更廣泛的市場中，一些交易員正在嘗試以高達 11,000 美元的價格買入 2025 年 12 月的 ETH 買權。以太幣目前交易價格低於 4,000 美元。截至發稿時，市值排名前 100 的代幣中有超過 70 個在 24 小時內上漲。需要更多冒險證據嗎？

That said, keep an eye on the bond market rout, which is fast spreading outside the U.S. Early today, the Japanese 10-year bond yield rose to a 13-year high while its 30-year British counterpart was on the verge of hitting the highest since the late 1990s. That can suck the wind out of risk assets. Stay alert!

儘管如此，請密切關注在美國以外地區迅速蔓延的債券市場潰敗今天早些時候，日本10 年期公債殖利率升至13 年來的高位，而英國30 年期公債殖利率也即將觸及10 年期公債收益率。這可能會吸走風險資產的風頭。保持警惕！

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By Shaurya MalwaEthereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has offloaded a stash of memecoins sent to him by various communities to fund a charity, on-chain data shows.

鏈上數據顯示，以太坊聯合創始人維塔利克·布特林 (Vitalik Buterin) 卸下了各個社區發送給他的大量模因幣，用於資助慈善機構。

In the past two days, Buterin has sold $940,900 worth of lesser-known memecoins for the USDC stablecoin and ether. The NEIRO, ESTEE, MARVIN, EBULL, MSTR, and TERMINUS tokens brought in at least $57,000 worth of USDC, while other tokens were sold for less than $40,000.

在過去的兩天裡，Buterin 已經出售了價值 940,900 美元的不太知名的 memecoin，以換取 USDC 穩定幣和以太幣。 NEIRO、ESTE​​、MARVIN、EBULL、MSTR 和 TERMINUS 代幣帶來了至少價值 57,000 美元的 USDC，而其他代幣的售價不到 40,000 美元。

Just over $916,000 was whisked away to a multisign wallet, likely tied to the charity Kanro, according to SpotOnChain.

據 SpotOnChain 稱，超過 916,000 美元被轉移到多重簽名錢包中，該錢包可能與慈善機構 Kanro 有關。

Communities often send tokens to Buterin mainly to gain exposure and leverage his influence in the crypto space.

社群經常向 Buterin 發送代幣，主要是為了獲得曝光度並利用他在加密領域的影響力。

But Buterin’s known philanthropy also plays a role. Communities send tokens expecting him to donate them, indirectly supporting charity. Back in October, Buterin said he would donate any tokens sent to him to charitable causes, though he added that he didn’t support the act.

但 Buterin 眾所周知的慈善事業也發揮了作用。社區發送代幣期待他捐贈，間接支持慈善事業。早在 10 月份，Buterin 就曾表示，他會將收到的所有代幣捐獻給慈善事業，但他補充說，他並不支持這項行為。

I appreciate all the memecoins that donate portions of their supply directly to charity.(eg. I saw ebull sent a bunch to various groups last month)Anything that gets sent to me gets donated to charity too (thanks moodeng! The 10B from today is going to anti-airborne…

我感謝所有直接將部分供應量捐贈給慈善機構的迷因幣。 ！

“Anything that gets sent to me

「任何寄給我的東西