比特币 (BTC) 期权到期日临近：看涨 11 万美元，看跌目标低于 9.5 万美元

投资者正准备迎接定于世界标准时间 12 月 27 日上午 8:00 到期的 198 亿美元期权。最近突破 100,000 美元的涨势已引发看跌

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are preparing for the $19.8 billion options expiry scheduled for Dec. 27 at 8:00 am UTC. The recent rally above $100,000 has taken bearish investors by surprise, presenting an opportunity for bullish traders to capitalize and potentially fuel a new Bitcoin all-time high.

比特币 (BTC) 投资者正在为定于世界标准时间 12 月 27 日上午 8:00 到期的 198 亿美元期权做准备。最近比特币价格上涨至 10 万美元以上，令看跌投资者感到意外，这为看涨交易者提供了利用并可能推动比特币创下新历史高点的机会。

Aggregate Bitcoin options open interest for Dec. 27. Source: Laevitas.ch

12 月 27 日比特币期权未平仓合约总额。来源：Laevitas.ch

Currently, total open interest for call (buy) options amounts to $12 billion, whereas put (sell) options trail at $7.8 billion. Deribit leads the options market with a 72% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 12% and Binance at 9%. However, Bitcoin’s 68% price surge over the past three months has rendered most put options ineffective.

目前，看涨（买入）期权的未平仓合约总额为 120 亿美元，而看跌（卖出）期权的未平仓合约总额为 78 亿美元。 Deribit 以 72% 的份额领先期权市场，其次是芝加哥商品交易所 (CME)，占 12%，币安则占 9%。然而，过去三个月比特币价格飙升 68%，导致大多数看跌期权失效。

As the expiry date approaches, both bulls and bears are naturally driven to influence Bitcoin’s spot price. While bullish investors are targeting levels above $110,000, their optimism alone does not guarantee that BTC will breach this threshold.

随着到期日的临近，多头和空头自然会影响比特币的现货价格。虽然看涨投资者的目标价位高于 110,000 美元，但仅凭他们的乐观情绪并不能保证 BTC 会突破这一门槛。

Insured institutional demand to propel Bitcoin price higher?

确保机构需求推动比特币价格走高？

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracting $4.5 billion in inflows during the first 12 days of December. Additionally, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) purchased 21,550 BTC between Dec. 2 and Dec. 8 at an average price of $98,783 per Bitcoin. Similarly, Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) disclosed the purchase of 11,744 BTC on Dec. 10.

机构对比特币的需求依然强劲，现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在 12 月的前 12 天吸引了 45 亿美元的资金流入。此外，MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）在 12 月 2 日至 8 日期间购买了 21,550 比特币，平均价格为每比特币 98,783 美元。同样，比特币矿商 MARA Holdings（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）披露于 12 月 10 日购买了 11,744 BTC。

Crucially, investors are also considering the potential approval of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, a proposal by Senator Cynthia Lummis that aims to accumulate up to 1 million BTC over time. Other states, such as Texas, are considering similar measures. A Texas lawmaker has introduced legislation to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset for at least five years, explicitly stating that “no taxpayer funds would be spent on buying Bitcoin.”

至关重要的是，投资者还在考虑美国战略比特币储备的潜在批准，这是参议员辛西娅·卢米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 的一项提议，旨在随着时间的推移积累多达 100 万比特币。德克萨斯州等其他州也在考虑采取类似措施。德克萨斯州一名议员提出立法，将比特币作为储备资产持有至少五年，并明确表示“不会将纳税人的资金用于购买比特币”。

Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin bulls are arguably better positioned for the year-end options expiry. For instance, if Bitcoin’s price remains around $100,500 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 27, only $275 million worth of put (sell) options will retain value. This scenario arises because the option to sell at $100,000 becomes worthless if BTC trades above that threshold at expiry.

鉴于当前的市场动态，比特币多头可以说在年底期权到期时处于更好的位置。例如，如果 UTC 时间 12 月 27 日上午 8:00，比特币的价格保持在 100,500 美元左右，那么只有价值 2.75 亿美元的看跌（卖出）期权能够保留价值。出现这种情况的原因是，如果 BTC 在到期时交易价格高于该阈值，则以 100,000 美元出售的期权将变得毫无价值。

Related: Bitcoin could hit $160K in 2025, fueled by improving macro conditions

相关：在宏观环境改善的推动下，比特币到 2025 年可能会达到 16 万美元

Bitcoin bears aim for sub-$95,000 levels to mitigate losses

比特币空头目标是低于 95,000 美元水平以减轻损失

Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but exclude complex strategies, such as selling put options to gain upside price exposure.

以下是基于当前价格趋势的五种可能情况。这些结果根据未平仓合约失衡估算理论利润，但不包括复杂的策略，例如出售看跌期权以获得上涨的价格风险。

To avoid substantial losses, bears need to drive prices below $95,000 ahead of the Dec. 27 expiry. On the other hand, bulls stand to maximize their gains if they can push BTC above $105,000, marking a new all-time high. Such a scenario could serve as a pivotal victory to sustain bullish momentum heading into early 2026.

为了避免重大损失，空头需要在 12 月 27 日到期之前将价格压至 95,000 美元以下。另一方面，如果多头能够将 BTC 推升至 105,000 美元以上，创下历史新高，他们就能最大化收益。这种情况可能成为维持 2026 年初看涨势头的关键胜利。