比特幣 (BTC) 選擇權到期日臨近：看漲 11 萬美元，看跌目標低於 9.5 萬美元

投資者正準備迎接定於世界標準時間 12 月 27 日上午 8 點到期的 198 億美元期權。最近突破 10 萬美元的漲勢已引發看跌

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are preparing for the $19.8 billion options expiry scheduled for Dec. 27 at 8:00 am UTC. The recent rally above $100,000 has taken bearish investors by surprise, presenting an opportunity for bullish traders to capitalize and potentially fuel a new Bitcoin all-time high.

比特幣 (BTC) 投資者正在為定於世界標準時間 12 月 27 日上午 8 點到期的 198 億美元選擇權做準備。最近比特幣價格上漲至 10 萬美元以上，令看跌投資者感到意外，這為看漲交易者提供了利用並可能推動比特幣創下新歷史高點的機會。

Aggregate Bitcoin options open interest for Dec. 27. Source: Laevitas.ch

12 月 27 日比特幣選擇權未平倉合約總額。

Currently, total open interest for call (buy) options amounts to $12 billion, whereas put (sell) options trail at $7.8 billion. Deribit leads the options market with a 72% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 12% and Binance at 9%. However, Bitcoin’s 68% price surge over the past three months has rendered most put options ineffective.

目前，看漲（買進）選擇權的未平倉合約總額為 120 億美元，而看跌（賣出）選擇權的未平倉合約總額為 78 億美元。 Deribit 以 72% 的份額領先期權市場，其次是芝加哥商業交易所 (CME)，佔 12%，幣安則佔 9%。然而，過去三個月比特幣價格飆升 68%，導致大多數看跌期權失效。

As the expiry date approaches, both bulls and bears are naturally driven to influence Bitcoin’s spot price. While bullish investors are targeting levels above $110,000, their optimism alone does not guarantee that BTC will breach this threshold.

隨著到期日的臨近，多頭和空頭自然會影響比特幣的現貨價格。雖然看漲投資者的目標價位高於 11 萬美元，但僅憑他們的樂觀情緒並不能保證 BTC 會突破這個門檻。

Insured institutional demand to propel Bitcoin price higher?

確保機構需求推動比特幣價格走高？

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracting $4.5 billion in inflows during the first 12 days of December. Additionally, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) purchased 21,550 BTC between Dec. 2 and Dec. 8 at an average price of $98,783 per Bitcoin. Similarly, Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) disclosed the purchase of 11,744 BTC on Dec. 10.

機構對比特幣的需求仍然強勁，現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在 12 月的前 12 天吸引了 45 億美元的資金流入。此外，MicroStrategy（納斯達克股票代碼：MSTR）在 12 月 2 日至 8 日期間購買了 21,550 比特幣，平均價格為每比特幣 98,783 美元。同樣，比特幣礦商 MARA Holdings（納斯達克股票代碼：MARA）披露於 12 月 10 日購買了 11,744 BTC。

Crucially, investors are also considering the potential approval of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, a proposal by Senator Cynthia Lummis that aims to accumulate up to 1 million BTC over time. Other states, such as Texas, are considering similar measures. A Texas lawmaker has introduced legislation to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset for at least five years, explicitly stating that “no taxpayer funds would be spent on buying Bitcoin.”

至關重要的是，投資者還在考慮美國戰略比特幣儲備的潛在批准，這是參議員辛西婭·盧米斯(Cynthia Lummis) 的一項提議，旨在隨著時間的推移積累多達100 萬比特幣。德州等其他州也在考慮採取類似措施。德州一名議員提出立法，將比特幣作為儲備資產持有至少五年，並明確表示「不會將納稅人的資金用於購買比特幣」。

Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin bulls are arguably better positioned for the year-end options expiry. For instance, if Bitcoin’s price remains around $100,500 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 27, only $275 million worth of put (sell) options will retain value. This scenario arises because the option to sell at $100,000 becomes worthless if BTC trades above that threshold at expiry.

鑑於當前的市場動態，比特幣多頭可以說在年底選擇權到期時處於更好的位置。例如，如果 UTC 時間 12 月 27 日上午 8:00，比特幣的價格保持在 100,500 美元左右，那麼只有價值 2.75 億美元的看跌（賣出）選擇權能夠保留價值。出現這種情況的原因是，如果 BTC 在到期時交易價格高於該門檻，則以 100,000 美元出售的選擇權將變得毫無價值。

Related: Bitcoin could hit $160K in 2025, fueled by improving macro conditions

相關：在宏觀環境改善的推動下，比特幣到 2025 年可能達到 16 萬美元

Bitcoin bears aim for sub-$95,000 levels to mitigate losses

比特幣空頭目標是低於 95,000 美元水平以減輕損失

Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but exclude complex strategies, such as selling put options to gain upside price exposure.

以下是基於當前價格趨勢的五種可能情況。這些結果根據未平倉合約失衡估算理論利潤，但不包括複雜的策略，例如出售看跌期權以獲得上漲的價格風險。

To avoid substantial losses, bears need to drive prices below $95,000 ahead of the Dec. 27 expiry. On the other hand, bulls stand to maximize their gains if they can push BTC above $105,000, marking a new all-time high. Such a scenario could serve as a pivotal victory to sustain bullish momentum heading into early 2026.

為了避免重大損失，空頭需要在 12 月 27 日到期之前將價格壓至 95,000 美元以下。另一方面，如果多頭能夠將 BTC 推升至 105,000 美元以上，創下歷史新高，他們就能最大化收益。這種情況可能成為維持 2026 年初看漲勢頭的關鍵勝利。