CryptoQuant 分析师：比特币（BTC）市场接近周期峰值，进入牛市周期后期

以比特币为首的加密货币市场往往遵循增长和下降周期交替的模式，反映了投资者情绪和市场基本面。

The cryptocurrency market, spearheaded by Bitcoin, has often cycled through periods of growth and decline, reflecting investor sentiment and market fundamentals.

以比特币为首的加密货币市场经常经历增长和下降时期，反映了投资者情绪和市场基本面。

Since the beginning of the current bull cycle in January 2023, Bitcoin has seen strong gains in both price and market duration. Increased capital inflows from new investors entering the market have fueled this growth, and existing participants are reinvesting their profits.

自 2023 年 1 月当前牛市周期开始以来，比特币的价格和市场持续时间都出现了强劲增长。新投资者进入市场的资本流入增加推动了这一增长，而现有参与者正在将其利润进行再投资。

However, recent indicators suggest that the market may now be entering the latter stages of this cycle, begging the question of what’s next for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

然而，最近的指标表明，市场现在可能正在进入这个周期的后期阶段，引发了比特币和更广泛的加密市场下一步的问题。

Relevant Reading: MARA CEO Advocates “Invest And Forget” Approach To Bitcoin, Citing Strong Historical Performance

相关阅读：MARA首席执行官以强劲的历史表现为由，提倡对比特币采取“投资后忘记”的方法

Key Indicators Suggest Cautious Optimism

关键指标显示谨慎乐观

One key metric that supports this observation is the percentage of Bitcoin traded in the past month relative to the realized market cap – UTXO, which currently stands at 36%, according to a recent analysis shared by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Crypto Dan.

支持这一观察结果的一个关键指标是过去一个月交易的比特币相对于已实现市值（UTXO）的百分比，根据 CryptoQuant 分析师 Crypto Dan 分享的最新分析，目前 UTXO 的比例为 36%。

In the analysis, Dan reveals that this figure, while lower than peak levels observed in previous bull cycles, is decreasing, suggesting that the market is “progressing toward its cycle peak.”

丹在分析中透露，这一数字虽然低于之前牛市周期中观察到的峰值水平，但正在下降，表明市场正在“朝着周期峰值前进”。

According to Dan, this peak could come sometime between Q1 and Q2 of 2025. However, rather than a single large wave of peak activity, historical trends suggest that the ratio could experience sharp increases two to four more times before the cycle concludes.

Dan 表示，这一峰值可能会在 2025 年第一季度和第二季度之间的某个时间出现。然而，历史趋势表明，该比率可能会在周期结束之前急剧增加两到四次，而不是单一的大波峰值活动。

This pattern usually signals overheating in the market, followed by a subsequent correction or bear cycle. Dan further noted that while the market could still see gains, it warrants a conservative approach to risk management.

这种模式通常预示着市场过热，随后出现调整或熊市周期。丹进一步指出，虽然市场仍可能上涨，但需要采取保守的风险管理方法。

“Historically, late-stage bull cycles are marked by increased volatility, as profit-taking begins to influence market behavior. Nevertheless, from a conservative standpoint and with risk management in mind, caution is advised. For this reason, I am planning to gradually sell my holdings.”

“从历史上看，牛市后期的特点是波动性增加，因为获利回吐开始影响市场行为。尽管如此，从保守的角度来看，并考虑到风险管理，建议谨慎行事。因此，我打算逐步出售所持股份。”

Another key observation from on-chain data is the relative activity of short-term traders versus long-term holders. Throughout market history, a sharp increase in short-term trading activity often precedes a market correction.

链上数据的另一个关键观察结果是短期交易者与长期持有者的相对活动。纵观市场历史，短期交易活动的急剧增加往往先于市场调整。

Traders who entered the market during recent price rallies may begin to sell off their holdings, leading to temporary downward pressure on prices. In contrast, long-term holders typically remain strong during these periods, providing a stabilizing force in the market.

在近期价格上涨期间进入市场的交易者可能会开始抛售所持股份，从而导致价格暂时面临下行压力。相比之下，长期持有者通常在这些时期保持强劲，为市场提供稳定力量。

Bitcoin Sees Recovery As The New Year Begins

新年伊始，比特币迎来复苏

After struggling to remain above $100,000 in the last month of 2024, Bitcoin seems to have resumed bullish momentum as the first month of 2025 begins.

在 2024 年最后一个月努力保持在 10 万美元以上之后，随着 2025 年第一个月的开始，比特币似乎已经恢复了看涨势头。

However, BTC entered the new year trading below $95,000. But within days, the asset continued its uptrend, reclaiming the $100,000 price level to trade at a price of $101,624 at the last check.

然而，比特币进入新年后交易价格低于 95,000 美元。但几天之内，该资产继续上涨趋势，收复 100,000 美元的价格水平，最后一次检查时的交易价格为 101,624 美元。

Over the past 24 hours, BTC recorded a 3.9% gain, bringing its price closer to its recently established all-time high above $108,000 last month.

在过去 24 小时内，BTC 上涨了 3.9%，使其价格接近上个月创下的 108,000 美元以上的历史新高。