CryptoQuant 分析師：比特幣（BTC）市場接近週期峰值，進入牛市週期後期

以比特幣為首的加密貨幣市場往往遵循成長和下降週期交替的模式，反映了投資者情緒和市場基本面。

The cryptocurrency market, spearheaded by Bitcoin, has often cycled through periods of growth and decline, reflecting investor sentiment and market fundamentals.

以比特幣為首的加密貨幣市場經常經歷成長和下降時期，反映了投資者情緒和市場基本面。

Since the beginning of the current bull cycle in January 2023, Bitcoin has seen strong gains in both price and market duration. Increased capital inflows from new investors entering the market have fueled this growth, and existing participants are reinvesting their profits.

自 2023 年 1 月當前牛市週期開始以來，比特幣的價格和市場持續時間都出現了強勁增長。新投資者進入市場的資本流入增加推動了這一成長，而現有參與者正在將其利潤進行再投資。

However, recent indicators suggest that the market may now be entering the latter stages of this cycle, begging the question of what’s next for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

然而，最近的指標表明，市場現在可能正在進入這個週期的後期階段，引發了比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場下一步的問題。

Relevant Reading: MARA CEO Advocates “Invest And Forget” Approach To Bitcoin, Citing Strong Historical Performance

相關閱讀：MARA執行長以強勁的歷史表現為由，提倡對比特幣採取「投資後忘記」的方法

Key Indicators Suggest Cautious Optimism

關鍵指標顯示謹慎樂觀

One key metric that supports this observation is the percentage of Bitcoin traded in the past month relative to the realized market cap – UTXO, which currently stands at 36%, according to a recent analysis shared by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Crypto Dan.

支持這項觀察結果的關鍵指標是過去一個月交易的比特幣相對於已實現市值（UTXO）的百分比，根據 CryptoQuant 分析師 Crypto Dan 分享的最新分析，目前 UTXO 的比例為 36%。

In the analysis, Dan reveals that this figure, while lower than peak levels observed in previous bull cycles, is decreasing, suggesting that the market is “progressing toward its cycle peak.”

丹在分析中透露，這一數字雖然低於先前牛市週期中觀察到的峰值水平，但正在下降，表明市場正在「朝著週期峰值前進」。

According to Dan, this peak could come sometime between Q1 and Q2 of 2025. However, rather than a single large wave of peak activity, historical trends suggest that the ratio could experience sharp increases two to four more times before the cycle concludes.

Dan 表示，這一高峰可能會在2025 年第一季和第二季之間的某個時間出現。的大波峰值活動。

This pattern usually signals overheating in the market, followed by a subsequent correction or bear cycle. Dan further noted that while the market could still see gains, it warrants a conservative approach to risk management.

這種模式通常預示著市場過熱，隨後出現調整或熊市週期。丹進一步指出，雖然市場仍可能上漲，但需要採取保守的風險管理方法。

“Historically, late-stage bull cycles are marked by increased volatility, as profit-taking begins to influence market behavior. Nevertheless, from a conservative standpoint and with risk management in mind, caution is advised. For this reason, I am planning to gradually sell my holdings.”

「從歷史上看，牛市後期的特徵是波動性增加，因為獲利回吐開始影響市場行為。儘管如此，從保守的角度來看，並考慮到風險管理，建議謹慎行事。因此，我打算逐步出售所持股份。

Another key observation from on-chain data is the relative activity of short-term traders versus long-term holders. Throughout market history, a sharp increase in short-term trading activity often precedes a market correction.

鏈上資料的另一個關鍵觀察是短期交易者與長期持有者的相對活動。縱觀市場歷史，短期交易活動的急劇增加往往先於市場調整。

Traders who entered the market during recent price rallies may begin to sell off their holdings, leading to temporary downward pressure on prices. In contrast, long-term holders typically remain strong during these periods, providing a stabilizing force in the market.

在近期價格上漲期間進入市場的交易者可能會開始拋售所持股份，導致價格暫時面臨下行壓力。相比之下，長期持有者通常在這些時期保持強勁，為市場提供穩定力量。

Bitcoin Sees Recovery As The New Year Begins

新年伊始，比特幣迎來復甦

After struggling to remain above $100,000 in the last month of 2024, Bitcoin seems to have resumed bullish momentum as the first month of 2025 begins.

在 2024 年最後一個月努力保持在 10 萬美元以上之後，隨著 2025 年第一個月的開始，比特幣似乎恢復了看漲勢頭。

However, BTC entered the new year trading below $95,000. But within days, the asset continued its uptrend, reclaiming the $100,000 price level to trade at a price of $101,624 at the last check.

然而，比特幣進入新年後交易價格低於 95,000 美元。但幾天之內，資產持續上漲趨勢，收復 10 萬美元的價格水平，最後一次檢查時的交易價格為 101,624 美元。

Over the past 24 hours, BTC recorded a 3.9% gain, bringing its price closer to its recently established all-time high above $108,000 last month.

在過去 24 小時內，BTC 上漲了 3.9%，使其價格接近上個月創下的 108,000 美元以上的歷史新高。