随着加密货币牛市进入最后阶段，比特币（BTC）市场接近周期峰值

这一周期于 2023 年 1 月开始，预计将在 2025 年第一季度或第二季度达到顶峰。专家们已经确定了表明市场成熟的关键指标，并建议投资者随着周期的进展保持谨慎。

CryptoQuant’s recent analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency market is nearing the final stages of its current bull cycle.

CryptoQuant 最近的分析表明，加密货币市场正接近当前牛市周期的最后阶段。

According to the analysis, this cycle, which began in January 2023, is expected to peak by the first or second quarter of 2025.

分析称，这一周期始于2023年1月，预计将在2025年第一或第二季度达到顶峰。

Crucial market indicators are signaling an aging market, prompting analysts to advise investors to exercise caution as the cycle progresses.

重要的市场指标表明市场正在老化，促使分析师建议投资者随着周期的进展保持谨慎。

Highlighting one key indicator, CryptoQuant analyst “Crypto Dan” noted that during Q4 2024, 36% of Bitcoin’s market cap comprised coins traded within the past month.

CryptoQuant 分析师“Crypto Dan”强调了一个关键指标，指出在 2024 年第四季度，比特币市值的 36% 是过去一个月内交易的代币。

While this is lower than peaks observed in past bull cycles, it nevertheless signals that the market is entering a critical phase.

虽然这低于过去牛市周期中观察到的峰值，但它仍然表明市场正在进入关键阶段。

As the cycle progresses, analysts anticipate a substantial increase in this percentage, which typically precedes a bear market.

随着周期的进展，分析师预计这一百分比将大幅增加，这通常是熊市之前的情况。

“The long-term trend remains down, which suggests the market is likely to reach its cycle peak by Q1 or Q2 of 2025,” noted Crypto Dan in a Jan. 6 report.

Crypto Dan 在 1 月 6 日的报告中指出：“长期趋势仍然下降，这表明市场可能会在 2025 年第一季度或第二季度达到周期峰值。”

Contrasting Predictions

对比预测

CryptoQuant’s cautious outlook stands in contrast to more optimistic predictions shared by other market analysts.

CryptoQuant 的谨慎前景与其他市场分析师更为乐观的预测形成鲜明对比。

For instance, Steno Research anticipates 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) breaking all-time highs.

例如，Steno Research 预计 2025 年将是加密货币的标志性一年，比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 将突破历史新高。

In a similar vein, asset manager VanEck projects that Bitcoin will peak at $180,000 and Ethereum will cross $6,000 by year-end.

同样，资产经理 VanEck 预计，到年底，比特币将达到 180,000 美元的峰值，以太坊将突破 6,000 美元。

“Bitcoin is likely to experience record-breaking valuations at the apex of the cycle, driven by investor sentiment and potential advances in crypto regulation,” stated VanEck in a December blog post.

VanEck 在 12 月的一篇博客文章中表示：“在投资者情绪和加密货币监管潜在进展的推动下，比特币可能会在周期的顶峰经历破纪录的估值。”

Federal Reserve, Liquidity Concerns

美联储，流动性担忧

However, some analysts remain wary of potential roadblocks.

然而，一些分析师仍然对潜在的障碍保持警惕。

Markus Thielen of 10x Research highlighted the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies as a critical factor influencing Bitcoin’s momentum.

10x Research 的 Markus Thielen 强调美联储的货币政策是影响比特币势头的关键因素。

An upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting may introduce volatility, potentially dampening the bullish trend.

即将举行的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议可能会带来波动，从而可能抑制看涨趋势。

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

比特币（BTC）价格图表。来源：比特币流动性指数（BLX），来自 Brave New Coin

Meanwhile, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, projected a short-term price correction for Bitcoin to $89,000 before rebounding above $125,000 later in the quarter.

与此同时，Ledn 首席投资官约翰·格洛弗 (John Glover) 预计比特币价格短期将调整至 89,000 美元，然后在本季度晚些时候反弹至 125,000 美元以上。

Reduced liquidity and resistance levels around $105,000 could also challenge sustained upward momentum.

流动性减少和 105,000 美元左右的阻力位也可能挑战持续的上涨势头。

Importance of Risk Management Stressed

强调风险管理的重要性

As Bitcoin currently trades close to $99,000, analysts emphasize the significance of risk management.

由于比特币目前的交易价格接近 99,000 美元，分析师强调了风险管理的重要性。

Technical indicators in the market present mixed signals.

市场技术指标呈现出混杂的信号。

The Directional Movement Index (+DI) indicates a slight bullish trend, but the Average Directional Index (ADX) is weak, suggesting a need for stronger momentum to penetrate resistance levels.

方向运动指数（+DI）表明轻微看涨趋势，但平均方向指数（ADX）较弱，表明需要更强的动力来突破阻力位。

CryptoQuant’s report advises investors to consider gradually liquidating positions as the market approaches its cyclical peak.

CryptoQuant 的报告建议投资者在市场接近周期性峰值时考虑逐步清算头寸。

“Caution is advised, especially for large holdings, as the later stages of the cycle usually carry higher risks,” remarked Crypto Dan.

Crypto Dan 表示：“建议谨慎行事，尤其是对于大量持有的股票，因为周期的后期阶段通常会带来更高的风险。”

Outlook for 2025

2025 年展望

2025 is shaping up to be a make-it-or-break-it kind of year in the cryptocurrency world.

2025 年将成为加密货币世界中要么成败要么成败的一年。

In addition to price action, other drivers—such as innovative crypto ETFs and/or the establishment of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve—may define the sector’s future for years to come.

除了价格走势之外，其他驱动因素（例如创新的加密货币 ETF 和/或美国比特币战略储备的建立）可能会定义该行业未来几年的未来。

While the present bull run still has great potential for substantial gains, investors are advised to be cautious.

虽然目前的牛市仍有较大的大幅上涨潜力，但建议投资者保持谨慎。

The combination of optimistic forecasts and cautionary signals underlines the need for a balanced approach as the market matures.

乐观预测和谨慎信号的结合强调了随着市场的成熟需要采取平衡的方法。

And while it's fun to speculate on bullish Bitcoin price predictions for 2025, it's essential to keep them within the realm of reason and not invest more than you can afford to lose—timeless advice.

虽然推测 2025 年看涨的比特币价格预测很有趣，但必须将其保持在理性范围内，并且投资不要超过您可以承受的损失——这是永恒的建议。