隨著加密貨幣牛市進入最後階段，比特幣（BTC）市場接近週期峰值

這一週期於 2023 年 1 月開始，預計將在 2025 年第一季或第二季達到頂峰。

CryptoQuant’s recent analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency market is nearing the final stages of its current bull cycle.

CryptoQuant 最近的分析表明，加密貨幣市場正接近當前牛市週期的最後階段。

According to the analysis, this cycle, which began in January 2023, is expected to peak by the first or second quarter of 2025.

分析稱，這一周期始於2023年1月，預計在2025年第一或第二季達到高峰。

Crucial market indicators are signaling an aging market, prompting analysts to advise investors to exercise caution as the cycle progresses.

重要的市場指標顯示市場正在老化，促使分析師建議投資人隨著週期的進展保持謹慎。

Highlighting one key indicator, CryptoQuant analyst “Crypto Dan” noted that during Q4 2024, 36% of Bitcoin’s market cap comprised coins traded within the past month.

CryptoQuant 分析師「Crypto Dan」強調了一個關鍵指標，指出在 2024 年第四季度，比特幣市值的 36% 是過去一個月內交易的代幣。

While this is lower than peaks observed in past bull cycles, it nevertheless signals that the market is entering a critical phase.

儘管這低於過去牛市週期中觀察到的峰值，但它仍然表明市場正在進入關鍵階段。

As the cycle progresses, analysts anticipate a substantial increase in this percentage, which typically precedes a bear market.

隨著週期的進展，分析師預計這一百分比將大幅增加，這通常是熊市之前的情況。

“The long-term trend remains down, which suggests the market is likely to reach its cycle peak by Q1 or Q2 of 2025,” noted Crypto Dan in a Jan. 6 report.

Crypto Dan 在 1 月 6 日的報告中指出：“長期趨勢仍然下降，這表明市場可能會在 2025 年第一季或第二季達到週期峰值。”

Contrasting Predictions

對比預測

CryptoQuant’s cautious outlook stands in contrast to more optimistic predictions shared by other market analysts.

CryptoQuant 的謹慎前景與其他市場分析師更樂觀的預測形成鮮明對比。

For instance, Steno Research anticipates 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) breaking all-time highs.

例如，Steno Research 預計 2025 年將是加密貨幣的標誌性一年，比特幣 (BTC) 和以太幣 (ETH) 將突破歷史新高。

In a similar vein, asset manager VanEck projects that Bitcoin will peak at $180,000 and Ethereum will cross $6,000 by year-end.

同樣，資產經理 VanEck 預計，到年底，比特幣將達到 18 萬美元的峰值，以太坊將突破 6,000 美元。

“Bitcoin is likely to experience record-breaking valuations at the apex of the cycle, driven by investor sentiment and potential advances in crypto regulation,” stated VanEck in a December blog post.

VanEck 在 12 月的一篇部落格文章中表示：“在投資者情緒和加密貨幣監管潛在進展的推動下，比特幣可能會在周期的頂峰經歷破紀錄的估值。”

Federal Reserve, Liquidity Concerns

聯準會，流動性擔憂

However, some analysts remain wary of potential roadblocks.

然而，一些分析師仍然對潛在的障礙保持警惕。

Markus Thielen of 10x Research highlighted the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies as a critical factor influencing Bitcoin’s momentum.

10x Research 的 Markus Thielen 強調聯準會的貨幣政策是影響比特幣勢頭的關鍵因素。

An upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting may introduce volatility, potentially dampening the bullish trend.

即將舉行的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議可能會帶來波動，可能會抑制看漲趨勢。

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

比特幣（BTC）價格圖表。來源：比特幣流動性指數（BLX），取自 Brave New Coin

Meanwhile, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, projected a short-term price correction for Bitcoin to $89,000 before rebounding above $125,000 later in the quarter.

與此同時，Ledn 首席投資官約翰·格洛弗 (John Glover) 預計比特幣價格短期將調整至 89,000 美元，然後在本季度晚些時候反彈至 125,000 美元以上。

Reduced liquidity and resistance levels around $105,000 could also challenge sustained upward momentum.

流動性減少和 105,000 美元左右的阻力位也可能挑戰持續的上漲勢頭。

Importance of Risk Management Stressed

強調風險管理的重要性

As Bitcoin currently trades close to $99,000, analysts emphasize the significance of risk management.

由於比特幣目前的交易價格接近 99,000 美元，分析師強調了風險管理的重要性。

Technical indicators in the market present mixed signals.

市場技術指標呈現混雜的訊號。

The Directional Movement Index (+DI) indicates a slight bullish trend, but the Average Directional Index (ADX) is weak, suggesting a need for stronger momentum to penetrate resistance levels.

方向運動指數（+DI）顯示輕微看漲趨勢，但平均方向指數（ADX）較弱，顯示需要更強的動力來突破阻力位。

CryptoQuant’s report advises investors to consider gradually liquidating positions as the market approaches its cyclical peak.

CryptoQuant 的報告建議投資者在市場接近週期性高峰時考慮逐步清算部位。

“Caution is advised, especially for large holdings, as the later stages of the cycle usually carry higher risks,” remarked Crypto Dan.

Crypto Dan 表示：“建議謹慎行事，尤其是對於大量持有的股票，因為週期的後期通常會帶來更高的風險。”

Outlook for 2025

2025 年展望

2025 is shaping up to be a make-it-or-break-it kind of year in the cryptocurrency world.

2025 年將成為加密貨幣世界中要麼成敗要麼成敗的一年。

In addition to price action, other drivers—such as innovative crypto ETFs and/or the establishment of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve—may define the sector’s future for years to come.

除了價格走勢之外，其他驅動因素（例如創新的加密貨幣 ETF 和/或美國比特幣戰略儲備的建立）可能會定義該行業未來幾年的未來。

While the present bull run still has great potential for substantial gains, investors are advised to be cautious.

雖然目前的多頭市場仍有較大的大幅上漲潛力，但建議投資人保持謹慎。

The combination of optimistic forecasts and cautionary signals underlines the need for a balanced approach as the market matures.

樂觀預測和謹慎訊號的結合強調了隨著市場的成熟需求採取平衡的方法。

And while it's fun to speculate on bullish Bitcoin price predictions for 2025, it's essential to keep them within the realm of reason and not invest more than you can afford to lose—timeless advice.

雖然推測 2025 年看漲的比特幣價格預測很有趣，但必須將其保持在理性範圍內，並且投資不要超過您可以承受的損失——這是永恆的建議。