The Bitcoin (BTC) Market Nears Its Cycle Peak as the Cryptocurrency Bull Run Enters Its Final Stages

This cycle, which began in January 2023, is projected to peak by the first or second quarter of 2025. Experts have identified key indicators signaling a maturing market and have advised investors to remain cautious as the cycle progresses.

CryptoQuant’s recent analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency market is nearing the final stages of its current bull cycle.

According to the analysis, this cycle, which began in January 2023, is expected to peak by the first or second quarter of 2025.

Crucial market indicators are signaling an aging market, prompting analysts to advise investors to exercise caution as the cycle progresses.

Highlighting one key indicator, CryptoQuant analyst “Crypto Dan” noted that during Q4 2024, 36% of Bitcoin’s market cap comprised coins traded within the past month.

While this is lower than peaks observed in past bull cycles, it nevertheless signals that the market is entering a critical phase.

As the cycle progresses, analysts anticipate a substantial increase in this percentage, which typically precedes a bear market.

“The long-term trend remains down, which suggests the market is likely to reach its cycle peak by Q1 or Q2 of 2025,” noted Crypto Dan in a Jan. 6 report.

Contrasting Predictions

CryptoQuant’s cautious outlook stands in contrast to more optimistic predictions shared by other market analysts.

For instance, Steno Research anticipates 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) breaking all-time highs.

In a similar vein, asset manager VanEck projects that Bitcoin will peak at $180,000 and Ethereum will cross $6,000 by year-end.

“Bitcoin is likely to experience record-breaking valuations at the apex of the cycle, driven by investor sentiment and potential advances in crypto regulation,” stated VanEck in a December blog post.

Federal Reserve, Liquidity Concerns

However, some analysts remain wary of potential roadblocks.

Markus Thielen of 10x Research highlighted the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies as a critical factor influencing Bitcoin’s momentum.

An upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting may introduce volatility, potentially dampening the bullish trend.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

Meanwhile, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, projected a short-term price correction for Bitcoin to $89,000 before rebounding above $125,000 later in the quarter.

Reduced liquidity and resistance levels around $105,000 could also challenge sustained upward momentum.

Importance of Risk Management Stressed

As Bitcoin currently trades close to $99,000, analysts emphasize the significance of risk management.

Technical indicators in the market present mixed signals.

The Directional Movement Index (+DI) indicates a slight bullish trend, but the Average Directional Index (ADX) is weak, suggesting a need for stronger momentum to penetrate resistance levels.

CryptoQuant’s report advises investors to consider gradually liquidating positions as the market approaches its cyclical peak.

“Caution is advised, especially for large holdings, as the later stages of the cycle usually carry higher risks,” remarked Crypto Dan.

Outlook for 2025

2025 is shaping up to be a make-it-or-break-it kind of year in the cryptocurrency world.

In addition to price action, other drivers—such as innovative crypto ETFs and/or the establishment of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve—may define the sector’s future for years to come.

While the present bull run still has great potential for substantial gains, investors are advised to be cautious.

The combination of optimistic forecasts and cautionary signals underlines the need for a balanced approach as the market matures.

And while it's fun to speculate on bullish Bitcoin price predictions for 2025, it's essential to keep them within the realm of reason and not invest more than you can afford to lose—timeless advice.