比特币 (BTC) 市场平衡法：LTH 获利回吐与 ETF 需求

随着比特币 [BTC] 逐渐接近 100,000 美元的心理里程碑，市场参与者正在密切关注链上指标，以解读

As Bitcoin [BTC] edges closer to the psychological $100,000 price point, key on-chain metrics are being closely monitored to understand the dynamics at play in the market.

随着比特币 [BTC] 接近 10 万美元的心理价位，我们正在密切监控关键的链上指标，以了解市场的动态。

While profit-taking activities by long-term holders (LTHs) are evident, the strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs is balancing the equation.

虽然长期持有者 (LTH) 的获利回吐活动显而易见，但现货比特币 ETF 的强劲需求正在平衡这一局面。

The interplay between these factors could determine the trajectory of BTC’s price in the short to medium term.

这些因素之间的相互作用可能决定中短期内比特币价格的走势。

Bitcoin long-term holders and their sell-offs

比特币长期持有者及其抛售

The behavior of LTHs is crucial in understanding Bitcoin’s market stability. Analysis of data from the Long-Term Holder Position Change chart indicated a notable uptick in distribution.

LTH 的行为对于理解比特币的市场稳定性至关重要。对长期持有者头寸变化图表的数据分析表明分布显着上升。

Over the past few weeks, there has been a sharp decline in LTH net positions. The Glassnode chart showed significant profit-taking activities marking this phase.

过去几周，LTH净持仓大幅下降。 Glassnode 图表显示了这一阶段的显着获利了结活动。

The shift from accumulation to distribution is common during bull markets, as LTHs capitalize on their long-term holdings.

从积累到分配的转变在牛市期间很常见，因为 LTH 会利用其长期持有的资产。

Source: Glassnode

来源：Glassnode

Adding context to this trend is the Long-Term Holder Spending Binary Indicator. The metric, which signals LTHs’ risk levels in terms of profit realization, currently reflects a “High Risk” zone at around 0.8.

长期持有者支出二元指标为这一趋势增添了背景。该指标表明 LTH 在利润实现方面的风险水平，目前反映了 0.8 左右的“高风险”区域。

Historically, similar risk levels have coincided with local price peaks, suggesting caution for investors banking on a sustained rally beyond $100,000.

从历史上看，类似的风险水平与当地价格峰值同时发生，这表明投资者对指望价格持续上涨至 10 万美元以上的投资者要保持谨慎。

Bitcoin ETF demand balances sell-offs

比特币 ETF 需求平衡抛售

Counterbalancing the sell-off by LTHs is the strong demand for Bitcoin ETFs. The Spot ETF Position Change chart highlights consistent inflows, with over 450,000 BTC allocated to ETFs over the past month.

对比特币 ETF 的强劲需求抵消了 LTH 的抛售。现货 ETF 头寸变化图表凸显了持续的资金流入，过去一个月有超过 450,000 枚 BTC 分配给了 ETF。

This influx underscores the appetite of institutional investors, who view ETFs as a simplified entry point into the crypto market.

这种涌入凸显了机构投资者的兴趣，他们将 ETF 视为进入加密市场的简化切入点。

Source: Glassnode

来源：Glassnode

The ETF flows are playing a pivotal role in absorbing the selling pressure.

ETF 资金流在吸收抛售压力方面发挥着关键作用。

In October, when LTH distribution reached new heights, ETF holdings saw their sharpest rise in months, indicating that demand from new participants and institutions might sustain Bitcoin’s price momentum.

10 月份，当 LTH 分布达到新高时，ETF 持有量出现数月来的最大增幅，表明新参与者和机构的需求可能会维持比特币的价格势头。

BTC indicators signal bullish continuation

BTC指标表明看涨持续

Bitcoin’s daily chart painted a promising technical outlook.

比特币的日线图描绘了充满希望的技术前景。

The price remained well above key moving averages, with the 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages providing strong support levels at $74,000 and $65,000, respectively.

价格仍远高于关键移动平均线，50 日和 200 日移动平均线分别在 74,000 美元和 65,000 美元提供强劲支撑位。

Moreover, the Bollinger Bands suggested heightened volatility, with BTC trading near the upper band—a sign of bullish momentum.

此外，布林带显示波动性加剧，比特币交易价格接近布林带上限，这是看涨势头的迹象。

Source: TradingView

来源：TradingView

Momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI further confirmed the positive sentiment.

MACD 和 RSI 等动能指标进一步证实了积极情绪。

The MACD was in bullish territory, with the histogram showing growing momentum, while the RSI sat at 81, indicating overbought conditions.

MACD 处于看涨区域，柱状图显示出增长势头，而 RSI 位于 81，表明超买状况。

Despite the overbought reading, historical price trends suggest Bitcoin can sustain rallies under such conditions during bull runs.

尽管读数超买，但历史价格趋势表明，在牛市期间，比特币可以在这种情况下维持反弹。

The interplay between profit-taking by long-term holders and demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs highlights a market balancing act.

长期持有者的获利回吐与现货比特币 ETF 的需求之间的相互作用凸显了市场平衡行为。

While the risk of a correction looms due to elevated LTH activity, the influx of institutional capital via ETFs could support Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.

虽然 LTH 活动增加导致修正风险迫在眉睫，但机构资本通过 ETF 涌入可能会支持比特币的看涨势头。

As BTC approaches $100,000, these metrics will be crucial in shaping its path forward.

随着 BTC 接近 10 万美元，这些指标对于塑造其未来发展道路至关重要。