比特幣 (BTC) 市場平衡法：LTH 獲利回吐與 ETF 需求

隨著比特幣 [BTC] 逐漸接近 10 萬美元的心理里程碑，市場參與者正在密切關注鏈上指標，以解讀

As Bitcoin [BTC] edges closer to the psychological $100,000 price point, key on-chain metrics are being closely monitored to understand the dynamics at play in the market.

隨著比特幣 [BTC] 接近 10 萬美元的心理價位，我們正在密切監控關鍵的鏈上指標，以了解市場的動態。

While profit-taking activities by long-term holders (LTHs) are evident, the strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs is balancing the equation.

雖然長期持有者 (LTH) 的獲利回吐活動顯而易見，但現貨比特幣 ETF 的強勁需求正在平衡這一局面。

The interplay between these factors could determine the trajectory of BTC’s price in the short to medium term.

這些因素之間的相互作用可能決定中短期內比特幣價格的走勢。

Bitcoin long-term holders and their sell-offs

比特幣長期持有者及其拋售

The behavior of LTHs is crucial in understanding Bitcoin’s market stability. Analysis of data from the Long-Term Holder Position Change chart indicated a notable uptick in distribution.

LTH 的行為對於理解比特幣的市場穩定性至關重要。長期持有者部位變化圖表的數據分析顯示分佈顯著上升。

Over the past few weeks, there has been a sharp decline in LTH net positions. The Glassnode chart showed significant profit-taking activities marking this phase.

過去幾週，LTH淨持股大幅下降。 Glassnode 圖表顯示了此階段的顯著獲利了結活動。

The shift from accumulation to distribution is common during bull markets, as LTHs capitalize on their long-term holdings.

從累積到分配的轉變在牛市期間很常見，因為 LTH 會利用其長期持有的資產。

Source: Glassnode

來源：Glassnode

Adding context to this trend is the Long-Term Holder Spending Binary Indicator. The metric, which signals LTHs’ risk levels in terms of profit realization, currently reflects a “High Risk” zone at around 0.8.

長期持有者支出二元指標為此趨勢增添了背景。該指標表明 LTH 在利潤實現方面的風險水平，目前反映了 0.8 左右的「高風險」區域。

Historically, similar risk levels have coincided with local price peaks, suggesting caution for investors banking on a sustained rally beyond $100,000.

從歷史上看，類似的風險水平與當地價格高峰同時發生，這表明投資者對指望價格持續上漲至 10 萬美元以上的投資者保持謹慎。

Bitcoin ETF demand balances sell-offs

比特幣 ETF 需求平衡拋售

Counterbalancing the sell-off by LTHs is the strong demand for Bitcoin ETFs. The Spot ETF Position Change chart highlights consistent inflows, with over 450,000 BTC allocated to ETFs over the past month.

對比特幣 ETF 的強勁需求抵消了 LTH 的拋售。現貨 ETF 部位變化圖表凸顯了持續的資金流入，過去一個月有超過 45 萬枚 BTC 分配給了 ETF。

This influx underscores the appetite of institutional investors, who view ETFs as a simplified entry point into the crypto market.

這種湧入凸顯了機構投資者的興趣，他們將 ETF 視為進入加密市場的簡化切入點。

Source: Glassnode

來源：Glassnode

The ETF flows are playing a pivotal role in absorbing the selling pressure.

ETF 資金流在吸收拋售壓力方面發揮關鍵作用。

In October, when LTH distribution reached new heights, ETF holdings saw their sharpest rise in months, indicating that demand from new participants and institutions might sustain Bitcoin’s price momentum.

10 月份，當 LTH 分佈達到新高時，ETF 持有量出現數月來的最大增幅，顯示新參與者和機構的需求可能會維持比特幣的價格動能。

BTC indicators signal bullish continuation

BTC指標顯示看漲持續

Bitcoin’s daily chart painted a promising technical outlook.

比特幣的日線圖描繪了充滿希望的技術前景。

The price remained well above key moving averages, with the 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages providing strong support levels at $74,000 and $65,000, respectively.

價格仍遠高於關鍵移動平均線，50 日和 200 日移動平均線分別在 74,000 美元和 65,000 美元提供強勁支撐位。

Moreover, the Bollinger Bands suggested heightened volatility, with BTC trading near the upper band—a sign of bullish momentum.

此外，布林通道顯示波動性加劇，比特幣交易價格接近布林通道上限，這是看漲勢頭的跡象。

Source: TradingView

來源：TradingView

Momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI further confirmed the positive sentiment.

MACD 和 RSI 等動能指標進一步證實了正向情緒。

The MACD was in bullish territory, with the histogram showing growing momentum, while the RSI sat at 81, indicating overbought conditions.

MACD 處於看漲區域，長條圖顯示出成長勢頭，而 RSI 位於 81，顯示超買狀況。

Despite the overbought reading, historical price trends suggest Bitcoin can sustain rallies under such conditions during bull runs.

儘管讀數超買，但歷史價格趨勢表明，在牛市期間，比特幣可以在這種情況下維持反彈。

The interplay between profit-taking by long-term holders and demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs highlights a market balancing act.

長期持有者的獲利回吐與現貨比特幣 ETF 的需求之間的相互作用凸顯了市場平衡行為。

While the risk of a correction looms due to elevated LTH activity, the influx of institutional capital via ETFs could support Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.

雖然 LTH 活動增加導致修正風險迫在眉睫，但機構資本透過 ETF 湧入可能會支持比特幣的看漲勢頭。

As BTC approaches $100,000, these metrics will be crucial in shaping its path forward.

隨著 BTC 接近 10 萬美元，這些指標對於塑造其未來發展道路至關重要。