当零售投资者回避市场时，机构推动的比特币（BTC）期货

金融市场有时保留悖论。比特币目睹了新的激增，跨越了100,000美元的象征性门槛，这是一个令人惊讶的

The financial markets sometimes hold paradoxes. While Bitcoin is experiencing a new surge, crossing the symbolic threshold of $100,000, one surprising element stands out: the absence of retail investors.

金融市场有时会占据悖论。比特币正在经历新的激增，越过100,000美元的象征性门槛，但令人惊讶的因素却突出了：缺少零售投资者。

After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Bitcoin futures market experienced a rapid rise, with an increase of $1.2 billion in just 24 hours. However, instead of widespread enthusiasm, the data reveals a sharp decline in small investors, whose activity has dropped by 50 % since November 2024. This phenomenon underscores a profound transformation of the market, where financial institutions are taking over from individuals.

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议之后，比特币期货市场迅速上升，仅在24小时内增加了12亿美元。但是，数据并非广泛热情，而是显示小型投资者的急剧下降，自2024年11月以来，其活动下降了50％。这种现象强调了对市场的深刻转变，金融机构正在从个人接管那里。

Should this be seen as a mere cyclical adjustment or a lasting change in the evolution of Bitcoin?

这是否应该被视为仅周期性调整或比特币进化的持久变化？

Institutions Propel Bitcoin Futures

机构推动比特币期货

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has rekindled speculative interest around Bitcoin, causing a massive influx of capital into the BTC futures market. In just 24 hours, open interest, which measures the total open positions on futures contracts, surged by $1.2 billion, recording an increase of 8% to reach a peak of $65 billion. This sudden progress reflects a marked return of institutional investors, who have strengthened their long positions in response to the economic signals issued by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议重新点燃了比特币周围的投机兴趣，导致大量资本涌入BTC期货市场。在短短24小时内，开放利息衡量了期货合约的总公开头寸，飙升了12亿美元，增长了8％，达到650亿美元。这一突然的进展反映了机构投资者的明显回归，这些投资者因响应美国美联储发出的经济信号而加强了漫长的立场。

In this bullish context, Bitcoin surpassed $106,500, marking a break from the consolidation phase of recent weeks. Meanwhile, the aggregated funding rate has increased, confirming a clear dominance of buyers in the derivatives market. However, despite this rise of institutional players, retail investors remain on the sidelines. According to Glassnode data, the transaction volume from wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC has dropped by 48 % since November 2024.

在这种看涨的情况下，比特币超过了106,500美元，这标志着最近几周的合并阶段的休息。同时，汇总的融资率有所提高，证实了买家在衍生品市场中的明显统治地位。然而，尽管机构参与者的崛起，散户投资者仍在场外。根据玻璃节数据，自2024年11月以来，容纳小于0.1 BTC的钱包的交易量下降了48％。

This disenchantment is surprising, especially since previous bullish cycles of Bitcoin have always been accompanied by a resurgence of interest from the general public. This observation is shared by Quinten Francois, a renowned crypto commentator, who highlights in a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) on January 26, 2025, that “despite Bitcoin trading above $100,000, the interest of retail investors has reached its lowest level in three years.” The current surge of Bitcoin seems to be driven by new engines, where institutional dynamics gradually supplant the activity of individuals.

这种解散令人惊讶，尤其是因为以前的看涨比特币周期一直伴随着公众的兴趣。著名的加密评论员Quinten Francois分享了这一观察结果，他在2025年1月26日在社交媒体平台X（以前称为Twitter）的帖子中强调，“尽管比特币交易超过100,000美元三年内的水平。”当前的比特币激增似乎是由新发动机驱动的，机构动态逐渐取代了个人的活动。

Why Are Retail Investors Shying Away from the Market ?

为什么散户投资者回避市场？

This decline in retail investor activity represents a major shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Several factors may explain this phenomenon, starting with the unit bias. This psychological principle drives many new investors to prefer buying assets in whole units rather than in fractions. With Bitcoin exceeding $100,000, some believe its price is now out of reach. In search of opportunities perceived as more accessible, they turn to cheaper altcoins, often swayed by valuation predictions disconnected from market realities.

零售投资者活动的这种下降代表了比特币市场动态的重大转变。从单位偏见开始，几个因素可能解释了这一现象。这种心理原则驱使许多新的投资者更喜欢以整个单位而不是分数购买资产。随着比特币超过100,000美元，有些人认为其价格现在已经遥不可及。为了寻找被认为更容易获得的机会，他们转向便宜的山寨币，通常会因与市场现实脱节的估值预测所影响。

At the same time, the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs is redistributing investment flows. Between November 2024 and January 2025, the total capitalization of BTC ETFs surged from $70 billion to $125 billion, representing a 78% increase, according to CoinGlass. This development alters the way investors are exposed to Bitcoin and favors regulated financial products over direct purchases on exchanges. Consequently, a massive movement of funds has been observed, reducing BTC balances held on platforms from 3.1 million to 2.7 million units in just seven months. This phenomenon represents a shift of the market towards increased institutional adoption, where ETFs and centralized custody solutions are overtaking self-custody.

同时，比特币ETF的兴起正在重新分配投资流。根据Coinglass的数据，在2024年11月至2025年1月之间，BTC ETF的总资本化从700亿美元飙升至1250亿美元，增长了78％。这一发展改变了投资者接触比特币的方式，并在交易所直接购买方面受到监管的金融产品。因此，已经观察到了大量资金行动，将平台上的BTC余额从短短七个月内从310万单位降低到了270万单位。这种现象代表了市场向增加机构采用的转变，在这种情况下，ETF和集中式监护解决方案超过了自我顾客。

Bitcoin now relies more on institutional flows than on the enthusiasm of retail investors. This structural evolution could profoundly reshape its market. On one hand, the heightened presence of institutions could reduce volatility, as these actors favor long-term investment strategies. On the other hand, a return of retail investors remains possible, particularly in the event of a price correction or a resurgence of interest in direct Bitcoin purchases. The future of the market will therefore depend on the evolution of overall sentiment, the attractiveness of Bitcoin to new entrants, and the role that ETFs and other institutional vehicles will continue to play. If this trend continues, the mother crypto could enter a maturation phase, where speculation gradually gives way to more institutionalized and regulated adoption.

比特币现在更多地依赖机构流，而不是散户投资者的热情。这种结构性进化可以深刻地重塑其市场。一方面，由于这些参与者赞成长期投资策略，因此机构的存在增加可以降低波动。另一方面，散户投资者的回报仍然是可能的，尤其是在价格更正或直接购买比特币购买兴趣的情况下。因此，市场的未来将取决于整体情绪的演变，比特币对新进入者的吸引力以及ETF和其他机构工具将继续发挥的作用。如果这种趋势继续下去，母亲加密货币可以进入成熟阶段，在这种阶段，人们的猜测逐渐让位于更加制度化和受监管的采用率。

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux

我是Alyra发行的区块链顾问认证的科学毕业生，我于2019年加入了Cointribuni冒险。坚信区块链有可能改变经济领域的潜力，我承诺提高认识并告知认识并告知人们的意识并告知该区域。公众对这种不断发展的生态系统。我的目标是让每个人更好