當零售投資者迴避市場時，機構推動的比特幣（BTC）期貨

金融市場有時保留悖論。比特幣目睹了新的激增，跨越了100,000美元的象徵性門檻，這是一個令人驚訝的

The financial markets sometimes hold paradoxes. While Bitcoin is experiencing a new surge, crossing the symbolic threshold of $100,000, one surprising element stands out: the absence of retail investors.

金融市場有時會佔據悖論。比特幣正在經歷新的激增，越過100,000美元的象徵性門檻，但令人驚訝的因素卻突出了：缺少零售投資者。

After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Bitcoin futures market experienced a rapid rise, with an increase of $1.2 billion in just 24 hours. However, instead of widespread enthusiasm, the data reveals a sharp decline in small investors, whose activity has dropped by 50 % since November 2024. This phenomenon underscores a profound transformation of the market, where financial institutions are taking over from individuals.

聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議之後，比特幣期貨市場迅速上升，僅在24小時內增加了12億美元。但是，數據並非廣泛熱情，而是顯示小型投資者的急劇下降，自2024年11月以來，其活動下降了50％。這種現象強調了對市場的深刻轉變，金融機構正在從個人接管那裡。

Should this be seen as a mere cyclical adjustment or a lasting change in the evolution of Bitcoin?

這是否應該被視為僅週期性調整或比特幣進化的持久變化？

Institutions Propel Bitcoin Futures

機構推動比特幣期貨

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has rekindled speculative interest around Bitcoin, causing a massive influx of capital into the BTC futures market. In just 24 hours, open interest, which measures the total open positions on futures contracts, surged by $1.2 billion, recording an increase of 8% to reach a peak of $65 billion. This sudden progress reflects a marked return of institutional investors, who have strengthened their long positions in response to the economic signals issued by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議重新點燃了比特幣周圍的投機興趣，導致大量資本湧入BTC期貨市場。在短短24小時內，開放利息衡量了期貨合約的總公開頭寸，飆升了12億美元，增長了8％，達到650億美元。這一突然的進展反映了機構投資者的明顯回歸，這些投資者因響應美國美聯儲發出的經濟信號而加強了漫長的立場。

In this bullish context, Bitcoin surpassed $106,500, marking a break from the consolidation phase of recent weeks. Meanwhile, the aggregated funding rate has increased, confirming a clear dominance of buyers in the derivatives market. However, despite this rise of institutional players, retail investors remain on the sidelines. According to Glassnode data, the transaction volume from wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC has dropped by 48 % since November 2024.

在這種看漲的情況下，比特幣超過了106,500美元，這標誌著最近幾週的合併階段的休息。同時，匯總的融資率有所提高，證實了買家在衍生品市場中的明顯統治地位。然而，儘管機構參與者的崛起，散戶投資者仍在場外。根據玻璃節數據，自2024年11月以來，容納小於0.1 BTC的錢包的交易量下降了48％。

This disenchantment is surprising, especially since previous bullish cycles of Bitcoin have always been accompanied by a resurgence of interest from the general public. This observation is shared by Quinten Francois, a renowned crypto commentator, who highlights in a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) on January 26, 2025, that “despite Bitcoin trading above $100,000, the interest of retail investors has reached its lowest level in three years.” The current surge of Bitcoin seems to be driven by new engines, where institutional dynamics gradually supplant the activity of individuals.

這種解散令人驚訝，尤其是因為以前的看漲比特幣週期一直伴隨著公眾的興趣。著名的加密評論員Quinten Francois分享了這一觀察結果，他在2025年1月26日在社交媒體平台X（以前稱為Twitter）的帖子中強調，“儘管比特幣交易超過100,000美元三年內的水平。”當前的比特幣激增似乎是由新發動機驅動的，機構動態逐漸取代了個人的活動。

Why Are Retail Investors Shying Away from the Market ?

為什麼散戶投資者迴避市場？

This decline in retail investor activity represents a major shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Several factors may explain this phenomenon, starting with the unit bias. This psychological principle drives many new investors to prefer buying assets in whole units rather than in fractions. With Bitcoin exceeding $100,000, some believe its price is now out of reach. In search of opportunities perceived as more accessible, they turn to cheaper altcoins, often swayed by valuation predictions disconnected from market realities.

零售投資者活動的這種下降代表了比特幣市場動態的重大轉變。從單位偏見開始，幾個因素可能解釋了這一現象。這種心理原則驅使許多新的投資者更喜歡以整個單位而不是分數購買資產。隨著比特幣超過100,000美元，有些人認為其價格現在已經遙不可及。為了尋找被認為更容易獲得的機會，他們轉向便宜的山寨幣，通常會因與市場現實脫節的估值預測所影響。

At the same time, the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs is redistributing investment flows. Between November 2024 and January 2025, the total capitalization of BTC ETFs surged from $70 billion to $125 billion, representing a 78% increase, according to CoinGlass. This development alters the way investors are exposed to Bitcoin and favors regulated financial products over direct purchases on exchanges. Consequently, a massive movement of funds has been observed, reducing BTC balances held on platforms from 3.1 million to 2.7 million units in just seven months. This phenomenon represents a shift of the market towards increased institutional adoption, where ETFs and centralized custody solutions are overtaking self-custody.

同時，比特幣ETF的興起正在重新分配投資流。根據Coinglass的數據，在2024年11月至2025年1月之間，BTC ETF的總資本化從700億美元飆升至1250億美元，增長了78％。這一發展改變了投資者接觸比特幣的方式，並在交易所直接購買方面受到監管的金融產品。因此，已經觀察到了大量資金行動，將平台上的BTC餘額從短短七個月內從310萬單位降低到了270萬單位。這種現象代表了市場向增加機構採用的轉變，在這種情況下，ETF和集中式監護解決方案超過了自我顧客。

Bitcoin now relies more on institutional flows than on the enthusiasm of retail investors. This structural evolution could profoundly reshape its market. On one hand, the heightened presence of institutions could reduce volatility, as these actors favor long-term investment strategies. On the other hand, a return of retail investors remains possible, particularly in the event of a price correction or a resurgence of interest in direct Bitcoin purchases. The future of the market will therefore depend on the evolution of overall sentiment, the attractiveness of Bitcoin to new entrants, and the role that ETFs and other institutional vehicles will continue to play. If this trend continues, the mother crypto could enter a maturation phase, where speculation gradually gives way to more institutionalized and regulated adoption.

比特幣現在更多地依賴機構流，而不是散戶投資者的熱情。這種結構性進化可以深刻地重塑其市場。一方面，由於這些參與者贊成長期投資策略，因此機構的存在增加可以降低波動。另一方面，散戶投資者的回報仍然是可能的，尤其是在價格更正或直接購買比特幣購買興趣的情況下。因此，市場的未來將取決於整體情緒的演變，比特幣對新進入者的吸引力以及ETF和其他機構工具將繼續發揮的作用。如果這種趨勢繼續下去，母親加密貨幣可以進入成熟階段，在這種階段，人們的猜測逐漸讓位於更加製度化和受監管的採用率。

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux

我是Alyra發行的區塊鏈顧問認證的科學畢業生，我於2019年加入了Cointribuni冒險。堅信區塊鏈有可能改變經濟領域的潛力，我承諾提高認識並告知認識並告知人們的意識並告知該區域。公眾對這種不斷發展的生態系統。我的目標是讓每個人更好