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即将到期的比特币名义价值中约有 16%(6.82 亿美元)目前处于“货币状态”。
Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) options contracts worth $4.2 billion and $1 billion, respectively, will expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Friday. An option allows the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specified price within a certain time period.
Deribit 上价值分别为 42 亿美元和 10 亿美元的比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 期权合约将于周五 08:00 UTC 到期。期权允许持有人有权利但没有义务在一定时期内以指定价格买卖标的资产。
What’s worth noting is that BTC options worth over $682 million, equating to 16.3% of the tally of $4.2 billion are set to expire “in-the-money,” of which most are calls. A call with strike price below the going market rate is said to be ITM while ITM puts are those with strikes above the spot price.
值得注意的是,价值超过 6.82 亿美元的 BTC 期权(相当于 42 亿美元总数的 16.3%)将在“价内”到期,其中大部分是看涨期权。执行价格低于现行市场价格的看涨期权被称为 ITM,而 ITM 看跌期权是执行价格高于现货价格的看涨期权。
The dynamic could breed market volatility as holders of in-profit ITM options look to close their bets or move positions in the next expiry. The last quarterly expiry dated end of September had a similar distribution of open interest.
这种动态可能会加剧市场波动,因为盈利的 ITM 期权持有者希望在下一个到期日结束押注或转移头寸。九月底到期的最后一个季度也有类似的未平仓合约分布。
Deribit data shows that the bitcoin put-to-call open interest ratio stands at 0.62 ahead of the expiry, indicating a relatively bullish sentiment. In other words, for every 100 call options active, 62 put options are open. The bias for calls is not surprising, considering BTC recently neared $70,000 for the first time since July.
Deribit数据显示,到期前比特币看跌期权与看涨期权持仓比例为0.62,表明市场情绪相对看涨。换句话说,每 100 个活跃看涨期权,就有 62 个未平仓看跌期权。考虑到 BTC 最近自 7 月以来首次接近 70,000 美元,看涨期权的偏见并不令人意外。
Max pain at $64K
最大疼痛值 $64K
BTC’s max pain level is $64,000, where most options - would - expire worthless, causing the most loss to option buyers and maximizing profit for the options writers.
BTC 的最大痛苦水平为 64,000 美元,大多数期权到期时都毫无价值,给期权买家造成最大损失,并为期权卖方带来最大利润。
At press time, BTC traded near $67,000, well above the max pain level while ether changed hands at around the max pain level of $2,600. So believers of the max pain theory might say bitcoin has room to fall ahead of the expiry while ether’s downside is capped.
截至发稿时,BTC 交易价格接近 67,000 美元,远高于最大痛苦水平,而以太坊易手价格约为 2,600 美元的最大痛苦水平。因此,最大痛苦理论的信徒可能会说,比特币在到期前还有下跌空间,而以太币的下跌空间有限。
Max pain theory states that the pre-expiry activities of traders with short options exposure often drives the underlying asset closer to its max pain level. However, the crypto community is divided on the max pain effect, with some saying the options market is still quite small to impact the spot price.
最大痛苦理论指出,拥有空头期权敞口的交易者的到期前活动通常会促使标的资产接近其最大痛苦水平。然而,加密货币社区对最大痛苦效应存在分歧,一些人表示期权市场仍然很小,不足以影响现货价格。
The options market will continue to grow
期权市场将继续增长
Crypto options market has grown multi-fold in the past four years, with contracts worth billions of dollars expiring every month and quarter. That said, its still relatively small compared to the spot market. According to Glassnode, as of Friday's data, the spot volume was approximately $8.2 billion, while options volume was roughly $1.8 billion. In addition, BTC's open interest of $4.2 billion due to expire this Friday is less than 1% of BTC's market cap of $1.36 trillion.
加密货币期权市场在过去四年中增长了数倍,每个月和每个季度都有价值数十亿美元的合约到期。也就是说,与现货市场相比,其规模仍然相对较小。根据 Glassnode 的数据,截至周五的数据,现货交易量约为 82 亿美元,而期权交易量约为 18 亿美元。此外,将于本周五到期的 BTC 未平仓合约为 42 亿美元,不到 BTC 市值 1.36 万亿美元的 1%。
That said, it could get bigger and move beyond BTC and into crypto-linked products in future as more institutions participate in the market. On Friday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved options tied to spot bitcoin ETFs. This comes after the approval of trading options of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
也就是说,随着越来越多的机构参与市场,它未来可能会变得更大并超越 BTC 并进入与加密货币相关的产品。周五,美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准了与现货比特币 ETF 相关的期权。这是在贝莱德 iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT) 的交易选项获得批准之后发生的。
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, called the approval "game-changing" and believes exchanges with central guarantors, which LedgerX and Deribit don't provide, are necessary. Park goes on further to say that he believes the options will start available to start trading in Q1 2025.
Bitwise Invest 阿尔法策略主管杰夫·帕克 (Jeff Park) 称这一批准“改变了游戏规则”,并认为与中央担保人的交易是必要的,而 LedgerX 和 Deribit 不提供这种服务。 Park 进一步表示,他相信这些期权将于 2025 年第一季度开始交易。
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