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这是党团会议必须实现的目标,否则将面临在塔拉哈西荒野中再待两年的风险。
Democrats need to net five seats in the Florida House of Representatives to break the Republican supermajority. Officials at the Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee (FHDCC) are confident they can do it.
民主党需要在佛罗里达州众议院获得五个席位才能打破共和党的绝对多数席位。佛罗里达州众议院民主党竞选委员会 (FHDCC) 的官员有信心他们能够做到这一点。
“We’ve run the program we wanted to run,” said FHDCC Executive Director Drew Shannon. “We feel good about the candidates and we feel good about our chances.”
“我们已经运行了我们想要运行的程序,”FHDCC 执行董事德鲁·香农 (Drew Shannon) 说道。 “我们对候选人感觉良好,对自己的机会感觉良好。”
But the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee (FHRCC) believes they can mobilize voters and protect GOP incumbents. They also feel more Democrats may be as vulnerable as anyone in the majority.
但佛罗里达州众议院共和党竞选委员会(FHRCC)相信他们可以动员选民并保护共和党现任议员。他们还认为,更多的民主党人可能与多数派中的任何人一样脆弱。
“House campaigns, our incumbents and candidates have put in the work every day — and we believe that our mission to advance our vision of Florida as a beacon of freedom and prosperity is what will lead us to victory next month,” said Speaker-designate Daniel Perez, a Miami Republican.
候任议长表示:“众议院竞选活动、我们的现任者和候选人每天都在努力工作,我们相信,我们的使命是推进佛罗里达州成为自由和繁荣灯塔的愿景,这将带领我们在下个月取得胜利。”丹尼尔·佩雷斯,迈阿密共和党人。
Florida Politics spoke with analysts and consultants from both sides of the aisle about where they deployed resources, where voters seem eager for change and which incumbents appear especially weak. L2 Data voter registration information also revealed a little about where each party had made gains.
佛罗里达政治与两党的分析师和顾问进行了交谈,讨论他们在哪里部署资源、选民似乎渴望变革以及哪些现任者显得特别软弱。 L2 Data 选民登记信息还揭示了各政党在哪些方面取得了进展。
From there, we ranked the 10 House districts most likely to flip from one party control to another on Nov. 5.
以此为基础,我们对 11 月 5 日最有可能从一个党派控制权转向另一个党派控制权的 10 个众议院选区进行了排名。
1. HD 106: Fabián Basabe (R, incumbent) vs. Joe Saunders (D)
1. HD 106:Fabián Basabe(右,现任)vs.乔·桑德斯 (D)
There’s been so much noise around Basabe since he flipped HD 106 by a razor-thin margin in 2022 — from fights with other pols to investigations of battery and sexual harassment that the House dismissed for lacking evidence — that it’s easy to overlook his legislative inefficacy.
自从巴萨贝在 2022 年以微弱优势推翻 HD 106 法案以来,他周围的喧嚣不断——从与其他政治家的争斗,到众议院因缺乏证据而驳回的殴打和性骚扰调查——以至于人们很容易忽视他立法上的无能。
To date, he’s successfully sponsored just one bill requiring better water provisions in labor pools. That many of the self-professed moderate Republican’s barely budging other proposals resembled things a Democrat would file didn’t matter; he voted in lockstep with his GOP colleagues on several “red meat” measures, including ones to further regulate LGBTQ instruction in schools and undo post-Parkland gun restrictions.
迄今为止,他仅成功发起了一项要求改善劳动力池供水的法案。许多自称温和的共和党人几乎没有改变其他提案,这些提案与民主党将提交的内容类似,但这并不重要;他与共和党同事对几项“红肉”措施进行了一致投票,包括进一步规范学校 LGBTQ 教学和取消帕克兰后枪支限制的措施。
Saunders, a former Orlando Representative, has run a steady, strategic campaign in the coastal Miami-Dade district that voted for Joe Biden by a 10-point margin four years ago. Without having to say it, he’s offered voters a stark alternative: stoicism instead of histrionics and a progressive platform arguably more reflective of the district’s inclinations.
桑德斯是前奥兰多众议员,他在沿海的迈阿密-戴德地区开展了一场稳定的、战略性的竞选活动,四年前,该地区以 10 个百分点的优势投票给了乔·拜登。不用说,他为选民提供了一个鲜明的选择:坚忍而不是做作,以及一个可以说更能反映该选区倾向的进步纲领。
He has also outraised the incumbent without having to tap his own bank account while enjoying an added advantage of not having to get by a Primary opponent. Basabe handily won his Primary, but the fact that 38% of Republicans voted against him in August bolstered predictions of his ouster Nov. 5.
他还无需动用自己的银行账户就可以筹集到超过现任议员的资金,同时还享有不必击败初选对手的额外优势。巴萨贝轻而易举地赢得了初选,但 8 月份 38% 的共和党人投票反对他,这一事实增强了他在 11 月 5 日下台的预测。
Also running is Saunders’ aunt, Mo Saunders Scott, a North Florida resident who mounted something of spite campaign against her nephew. She has no business running, and no chance of winning.
参选的还有桑德斯的姨妈莫·桑德斯·斯科特 (Mo Saunders Scott),她是北佛罗里达州居民,对她的侄子发起了一些恶意运动。她没有生意可做,也没有获胜的机会。
As of Aug. 20, there were 32,654 Democrats, 27,805 Republicans and 40,229 no-party and third-party voters in HD 106, according to the most recently available state voter data.
根据最新的州选民数据,截至 8 月 20 日,HD 106 共有 32,654 名民主党选民、27,805 名共和党选民和 40,229 名无党派及第三方选民。
Basabe won two years ago by a 241-vote margin. Since then, L2 data shows the district has turned slightly redder, this year adding 1,852 Republican voters compared to 1,049 Democrats.
两年前,巴萨贝以 241 票的优势获胜。自那以后,L2 数据显示该选区的选民颜色略有变红,今年增加了 1,852 名共和党选民,而民主党选民则增加了 1,049 名。
2. HD 45: Carolina Amesty (R, incumbent) vs. Leonard Spencer (D)
2. HD 45:Carolina Amesty(右,现任)对阵 Leonard Spencer(民主党)
Even before her arrest on forgery charges, Amesty seemed a ripe target for Democrats. The Windermere Republican won her seat by 6 percentage points in 2022, but HD 45 voters broke for Biden by almost that margin two years prior.
甚至在因伪造罪名被捕之前,阿米斯蒂似乎已经成为民主党的成熟目标。这位温德米尔共和党人在 2022 年以 6 个百分点的优势赢得了席位,但 HD 45 选民在两年前几乎以同样的优势支持了拜登。
Moreover, she effectively represents Disney but never represented the Mouse in the House. She stood by Gov. Ron DeSantis at the peak of his Disney wars, siding with the state leader against her district’s top employer. Now she’s running against Leonard, a former Disney executive who headed diversity initiatives for that Fortune 500 company and others. House Republicans hammered Leonard for his diversity, equity and inclusion advocacy, but blotted out the Disney brand when republishing his social media posts in mailers.
此外,她实际上代表了迪士尼,但从未代表过《老鼠屋》。在迪士尼战争的巅峰时期,她站在州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯一边,站在州领导人一边反对她所在地区的最高雇主。现在,她的竞争对手伦纳德是迪士尼前高管,曾领导该财富 500 强公司和其他公司的多元化计划。众议院共和党人猛烈抨击伦纳德倡导多元化、公平和包容性,但在邮寄他的社交媒体帖子时抹去了迪士尼品牌。
Problems truly stepped up for Amesty when a notary scandal resulted in a grand indictment on four felony charges. She maintains her innocence, but a trial won’t unfold until after the election. She has a $52,000 to $31,000 cash advantage on Leonard, but her signs aren’t papering the district like they were two years ago. Moreover, big TV buys in Central Florida by the FHRCC seem focused on protecting every seat but hers.
当公证人丑闻导致对四项重罪指控的重大起诉时,Amesty 的问题真正加剧了。她坚称自己无罪,但审判要等到选举之后才会展开。她比伦纳德有 52,000 美元到 31,000 美元的现金优势,但她的标语并没有像两年前那样在整个地区铺开。此外,FHRCC 在佛罗里达州中部购买大型电视机似乎主要是为了保护除她之外的每个席位。
HD 45 had 41,771 Republican voters,
HD 45 有 41,771 名共和党选民,
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