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這是黨團會議必須實現的目標,否則將面臨在塔拉哈西荒野中再待兩年的風險。
Democrats need to net five seats in the Florida House of Representatives to break the Republican supermajority. Officials at the Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee (FHDCC) are confident they can do it.
民主黨需要在佛羅裡達州眾議院獲得五個席位才能打破共和黨的絕對多數。佛羅裡達州眾議院民主黨競選委員會 (FHDCC) 的官員有信心他們能夠做到這一點。
“We’ve run the program we wanted to run,” said FHDCC Executive Director Drew Shannon. “We feel good about the candidates and we feel good about our chances.”
「我們已經運行了我們想要運行的程序,」FHDCC 執行董事德魯·香農 (Drew Shannon) 說道。 “我們對候選人感覺良好,對自己的機會感覺良好。”
But the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee (FHRCC) believes they can mobilize voters and protect GOP incumbents. They also feel more Democrats may be as vulnerable as anyone in the majority.
但佛羅裡達州眾議院共和黨競選委員會(FHRCC)相信他們可以動員選民並保護共和黨現任議員。他們也認為,更多的民主黨人可能與多數派中的任何人一樣脆弱。
“House campaigns, our incumbents and candidates have put in the work every day — and we believe that our mission to advance our vision of Florida as a beacon of freedom and prosperity is what will lead us to victory next month,” said Speaker-designate Daniel Perez, a Miami Republican.
候任議長表示:「眾議院競選活動、我們的現任者和候選人每天都在努力工作,我們相信,我們的使命是推進佛羅裡達州成為自由和繁榮燈塔的願景,這將帶領我們在下個月取得勝利。
Florida Politics spoke with analysts and consultants from both sides of the aisle about where they deployed resources, where voters seem eager for change and which incumbents appear especially weak. L2 Data voter registration information also revealed a little about where each party had made gains.
佛羅裡達政治與兩黨的分析師和顧問進行了交談,討論他們在哪裡部署資源、選民似乎渴望改變以及哪些現任者顯得特別軟弱。 L2 Data 選民登記資訊也揭示了各政黨在哪些方面取得了進展。
From there, we ranked the 10 House districts most likely to flip from one party control to another on Nov. 5.
以此為基礎,我們對 11 月 5 日最有可能從一個黨派控制權轉向另一個黨派控制權的 10 個眾議院選區進行了排名。
1. HD 106: Fabián Basabe (R, incumbent) vs. Joe Saunders (D)
1. HD 106:Fabián Basabe(右,現任)vs.喬桑德斯 (D)
There’s been so much noise around Basabe since he flipped HD 106 by a razor-thin margin in 2022 — from fights with other pols to investigations of battery and sexual harassment that the House dismissed for lacking evidence — that it’s easy to overlook his legislative inefficacy.
自從巴薩貝在2022 年以微弱優勢推翻HD 106 法案以來,他周圍的喧囂不斷——從與其他政治家的爭鬥,到眾議院因缺乏證據而駁回的毆打和性騷擾調查——以至於人們很容易忽視他立法上的無能。
To date, he’s successfully sponsored just one bill requiring better water provisions in labor pools. That many of the self-professed moderate Republican’s barely budging other proposals resembled things a Democrat would file didn’t matter; he voted in lockstep with his GOP colleagues on several “red meat” measures, including ones to further regulate LGBTQ instruction in schools and undo post-Parkland gun restrictions.
迄今為止,他僅成功發起了一項要求改善勞動力池供水的法案。許多自稱溫和的共和黨人幾乎沒有改變其他提案,這些提案與民主黨將提交的內容類似,但這並不重要;他與共和黨同事對幾項「紅肉」措施進行了一致投票,包括進一步規範學校 LGBTQ 教學和取消帕克蘭後槍支限制的措施。
Saunders, a former Orlando Representative, has run a steady, strategic campaign in the coastal Miami-Dade district that voted for Joe Biden by a 10-point margin four years ago. Without having to say it, he’s offered voters a stark alternative: stoicism instead of histrionics and a progressive platform arguably more reflective of the district’s inclinations.
桑德斯是前奧蘭多眾議員,他在沿海的邁阿密戴德地區開展了一場穩定的、戰略性的競選活動,四年前,該地區以10 個百分點的優勢投票給了喬·拜登。不用說,他為選民提供了一個鮮明的選擇:堅忍而不是做作,以及一個可以說更能反映該選區傾向的進步綱領。
He has also outraised the incumbent without having to tap his own bank account while enjoying an added advantage of not having to get by a Primary opponent. Basabe handily won his Primary, but the fact that 38% of Republicans voted against him in August bolstered predictions of his ouster Nov. 5.
他還無需動用自己的銀行帳戶就可以籌集到超過現任議員的資金,同時還享有不必擊敗初選對手的額外優勢。巴薩貝輕鬆贏得了初選,但 8 月 38% 的共和黨人投票反對他,這一事實增強了他在 11 月 5 日下台的預測。
Also running is Saunders’ aunt, Mo Saunders Scott, a North Florida resident who mounted something of spite campaign against her nephew. She has no business running, and no chance of winning.
參選的還有桑德斯的姑姑莫桑德斯史考特 (Mo Saunders Scott),她是北佛羅裡達州居民,對她的侄子發起了一些惡意運動。她沒有生意可做,也沒有贏的機會。
As of Aug. 20, there were 32,654 Democrats, 27,805 Republicans and 40,229 no-party and third-party voters in HD 106, according to the most recently available state voter data.
根據最新的州選民數據,截至 8 月 20 日,HD 106 共有 32,654 名民主黨選民、27,805 名共和黨選民和 40,229 名無黨派及第三方選民。
Basabe won two years ago by a 241-vote margin. Since then, L2 data shows the district has turned slightly redder, this year adding 1,852 Republican voters compared to 1,049 Democrats.
兩年前,巴薩貝以 241 票的優勢獲勝。自那以後,L2 數據顯示該選區的選民顏色稍微變紅,今年增加了 1,852 名共和黨選民,而民主黨選民則增加了 1,049 名。
2. HD 45: Carolina Amesty (R, incumbent) vs. Leonard Spencer (D)
2. HD 45:Carolina Amesty(右,現任)對上 Leonard Spencer(民主黨)
Even before her arrest on forgery charges, Amesty seemed a ripe target for Democrats. The Windermere Republican won her seat by 6 percentage points in 2022, but HD 45 voters broke for Biden by almost that margin two years prior.
甚至在因偽造罪名被捕之前,阿米斯蒂似乎已經成為民主黨的成熟目標。這位溫德米爾共和黨人在 2022 年以 6 個百分點的優勢贏得了席位,但 HD 45 選民在兩年前幾乎以同樣的優勢支持了拜登。
Moreover, she effectively represents Disney but never represented the Mouse in the House. She stood by Gov. Ron DeSantis at the peak of his Disney wars, siding with the state leader against her district’s top employer. Now she’s running against Leonard, a former Disney executive who headed diversity initiatives for that Fortune 500 company and others. House Republicans hammered Leonard for his diversity, equity and inclusion advocacy, but blotted out the Disney brand when republishing his social media posts in mailers.
此外,她實際上代表了迪士尼,但從未代表過《老鼠屋》。在迪士尼戰爭的巔峰時期,她站在州長羅恩·德桑蒂斯一邊,站在州領導人一邊反對她所在地區的最高雇主。現在,她的競爭對手倫納德是迪士尼前高管,曾領導該財富 500 強公司和其他公司的多元化計劃。眾議院共和黨人猛烈抨擊倫納德倡導多元化、公平和包容性,但在郵寄他的社交媒體帖子時抹去了迪士尼品牌。
Problems truly stepped up for Amesty when a notary scandal resulted in a grand indictment on four felony charges. She maintains her innocence, but a trial won’t unfold until after the election. She has a $52,000 to $31,000 cash advantage on Leonard, but her signs aren’t papering the district like they were two years ago. Moreover, big TV buys in Central Florida by the FHRCC seem focused on protecting every seat but hers.
當公證人醜聞導致對四項重罪指控的重大起訴時,Amesty 的問題真正加劇了。她堅稱自己無罪,但審判要等到選舉之後才會展開。她對倫納德有 52,000 美元到 31,000 美元的現金優勢,但她的標語並沒有像兩年前那樣在該地區張貼。此外,FHRCC 在佛羅裡達州中部購買大型電視似乎主要是為了保護她以外的每個席位。
HD 45 had 41,771 Republican voters,
HD 45 有 41,771 名共和黨選民,
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