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即將到期的比特幣名目價值中約有 16%(6.82 億美元)目前處於「貨幣狀態」。
Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) options contracts worth $4.2 billion and $1 billion, respectively, will expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Friday. An option allows the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specified price within a certain time period.
Deribit 上價值分別為 42 億美元和 10 億美元的比特幣 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 選擇權合約將於週五 08:00 UTC 到期。選擇權允許持有人有權利但沒有義務在一定期間內以指定價格買賣標的資產。
What’s worth noting is that BTC options worth over $682 million, equating to 16.3% of the tally of $4.2 billion are set to expire “in-the-money,” of which most are calls. A call with strike price below the going market rate is said to be ITM while ITM puts are those with strikes above the spot price.
值得注意的是,價值超過 6.82 億美元的 BTC 選擇權(相當於 42 億美元總數的 16.3%)將在「價內」到期,其中大部分是看漲期權。執行價格低於現行市場價格的買權稱為 ITM,而 ITM 賣權是執行價格高於現貨價格的買權。
The dynamic could breed market volatility as holders of in-profit ITM options look to close their bets or move positions in the next expiry. The last quarterly expiry dated end of September had a similar distribution of open interest.
這種動態可能會加劇市場波動,因為獲利的 ITM 選擇權持有者希望在下一個到期日結束押注或轉移部位。九月底到期的最後一個季度也有類似的未平倉合約分佈。
Deribit data shows that the bitcoin put-to-call open interest ratio stands at 0.62 ahead of the expiry, indicating a relatively bullish sentiment. In other words, for every 100 call options active, 62 put options are open. The bias for calls is not surprising, considering BTC recently neared $70,000 for the first time since July.
Deribit數據顯示,到期前比特幣看跌選擇權與買權持股比率為0.62,顯示市場情緒相對買權。換句話說,每 100 個活躍買權,就有 62 個未平倉賣權。考慮到 BTC 最近自 7 月以來首次接近 70,000 美元,看漲期權的偏見並不令人意外。
Max pain at $64K
最大疼痛值 $64K
BTC’s max pain level is $64,000, where most options - would - expire worthless, causing the most loss to option buyers and maximizing profit for the options writers.
BTC 的最大痛苦水平為 64,000 美元,大多數期權到期時都毫無價值,對期權買家造成最大損失,並為期權賣方帶來最大利潤。
At press time, BTC traded near $67,000, well above the max pain level while ether changed hands at around the max pain level of $2,600. So believers of the max pain theory might say bitcoin has room to fall ahead of the expiry while ether’s downside is capped.
截至發稿時,BTC 交易價格接近 67,000 美元,遠高於最大痛苦水平,而以太坊易手價格約為 2,600 美元的最大痛苦水平。因此,最大痛苦理論的信徒可能會說,比特幣在到期前還有下跌空間,而以太幣的下跌空間有限。
Max pain theory states that the pre-expiry activities of traders with short options exposure often drives the underlying asset closer to its max pain level. However, the crypto community is divided on the max pain effect, with some saying the options market is still quite small to impact the spot price.
最大痛苦理論指出,擁有空頭選擇權曝險的交易者的到期前活動通常會促使標的資產接近其最大痛苦水準。然而,加密貨幣社群對最大痛苦效應存在分歧,有些人表示選擇權市場仍然很小,不足以影響現貨價格。
The options market will continue to grow
期權市場將持續成長
Crypto options market has grown multi-fold in the past four years, with contracts worth billions of dollars expiring every month and quarter. That said, its still relatively small compared to the spot market. According to Glassnode, as of Friday's data, the spot volume was approximately $8.2 billion, while options volume was roughly $1.8 billion. In addition, BTC's open interest of $4.2 billion due to expire this Friday is less than 1% of BTC's market cap of $1.36 trillion.
加密貨幣選擇權市場在過去四年中成長了數倍,每個月和每季都有價值數十億美元的合約到期。也就是說,與現貨市場相比,規模仍然相對較小。根據 Glassnode 的數據,截至週五的數據,現貨交易量約為 82 億美元,而選擇權交易量約為 18 億美元。此外,將於本週五到期的 BTC 未平倉合約為 42 億美元,不到 BTC 市值 1.36 兆美元的 1%。
That said, it could get bigger and move beyond BTC and into crypto-linked products in future as more institutions participate in the market. On Friday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved options tied to spot bitcoin ETFs. This comes after the approval of trading options of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
也就是說,隨著越來越多的機構參與市場,它未來可能會變得更大並超越 BTC 並進入與加密貨幣相關的產品。週五,美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 批准了與現貨比特幣 ETF 相關的選擇權。這是在貝萊德 iShares 比特幣信託 (IBIT) 的交易選項獲得批准之後發生的。
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, called the approval "game-changing" and believes exchanges with central guarantors, which LedgerX and Deribit don't provide, are necessary. Park goes on further to say that he believes the options will start available to start trading in Q1 2025.
Bitwise Invest 阿爾法策略主管 Jeff Park 稱這項批准“改變了遊戲規則”,並認為與中央擔保人的交易是必要的,而 LedgerX 和 Deribit 不提供這種服務。 Park 進一步表示,他相信這些選擇權將於 2025 年第一季開始交易。
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