随着主要银行重新评估美联储降息预期，比特币 (BTC) 跌破 9.3 万美元

比特币（BTC）以负面情绪开始了新的一周，因为在周五强劲的就业报告之后，主要投资银行重新评估了对美联储（Fed）降息的预期。

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below the $93,000 level on Monday as major investment banks reassessed their expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts following Friday's strong jobs report.

比特币 (BTC) 周一跌破 93,000 美元水平，因主要投资银行在周五强劲的就业报告后重新评估了对美联储 (Fed) 降息的预期。

The leading cryptocurrency by market value dropped by 1.6% during the day to trade below $92,800 as of European hours, according to data source CoinDesk. Prices were poised to test the support zone near $92,000, which has acted as a floor since late November.

根据数据源 CoinDesk 的数据，截至欧洲时段，市值领先的加密货币当天下跌 1.6%，交易价格低于 92,800 美元。价格准备测试 92,000 美元附近的支撑区域，该区域自 11 月底以来一直是底部。

The CoinDesk 20 Index, a broader market gauge, was down over 3%, with major coins like XRP, ADA, and DOGE posting bigger losses.

更广泛的市场指标 CoinDesk 20 指数下跌超过 3%，XRP、ADA 和 DOGE 等主要代币跌幅更大。

In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.3% lower, indicating an extension of Friday's 1.5% drop that pushed the index to the lowest since early November. The dollar index (DXY) neared 110 for the first time since late 2022, with high Treasury yields supporting further gains.

在传统市场，与标准普尔 500 指数相关的期货价格下跌 0.3%，表明上周五 1.5% 跌幅的延续，导致该指数跌至 11 月初以来的最低水平。美元指数 (DXY) 自 2022 年底以来首次接近 110，美国国债收益率高企支撑进一步上涨。

Data released Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, the most since March, easily beating expectations for 160,000 job additions and December's previous figure of 212,000. The jobless rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, which was slightly lower than anticipated.

周五公布的数据显示，12 月份非农就业人数增加 256,000 人，为 3 月份以来的最大增幅，轻松超过预期的新增就业人数 160,000 人和 12 月份之前的数字 212,000。失业率从4.2%下降至4.1%，平均时薪环比增长0.3%，同比增长3.9%，略低于预期。

The jobs report prompted Goldman Sachs to push out the next interest rate cut to June from March.

就业报告促使高盛将下一次降息时间从 3 月份推迟到 6 月份。

“Our economists now expect the Fed to cut just twice in 2025 (Jun/Dec vs Mar/Jun/Dec previously), with another rate cut in June 2026,” Goldman's Economic Research note to clients said on Jan. 10.

高盛在 1 月 10 日给客户的经济研究报告中表示：“我们的经济学家现在预计美联储将在 2025 年仅降息两次（6 月/12 月 vs 之前的 3 月/6 月/12 月），并在 2026 年 6 月再次降息。”

“If December's FOMC decision marked a material shift back towards inflation in the Fed’s relative weighting of risks, the December jobs report may have completed the pendulum swing. The soft average hourly earnings figure kept the print from sending a more alarming re-heating signal, but the case for cutting to mitigate risks to the labor market has faded into the background,” the note added.

“如果 FOMC 12 月的决定标志着美联储相对风险权重转向通胀的重大转变，那么 12 月的就业报告可能已经完成了钟摆的摆动。疲软的平均每小时收入数据使报纸无法发出更令人担忧的重新升温信号，但通过削减开支来减轻劳动力市场风险的理由已经逐渐淡出人们的视野，”该报告补充道。

The Fed began cutting rates in September when it officials reduced the benchmark borrowing cost by 50 basis points. The bank delivered quarter-point rate cuts in the following months before pausing in December to signal fewer rate cuts in 2025. BTC has surged over 50% since the first rate cut on Sept. 18, hitting record highs above $108,000 at one point.

美联储于 9 月份开始降息，官员将基准借贷成本降低了 50 个基点。该银行在接下来的几个月里实施了四分之一个百分点的降息，然后在 12 月暂停，以暗示 2025 年降息幅度会更少。自 9 月 18 日首次降息以来，BTC 已飙升超过 50%，一度触及 108,000 美元以上的历史新高。

While Goldman and JPMorgan still expect rate cuts, Bank of America (BofA) fears an extended pause, with risks skewed in favor of a rate hike or renewed tightening. Notably, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, which is influenced by interest rate, growth and inflation expectations, has already risen by 100 basis points since the Sept. 18 rate cut.

尽管高盛和摩根大通仍预期降息，但美国银行（BofA）担心降息会延长，风险倾向于加息或重新收紧政策。值得注意的是，受利率、经济增长和通胀预期影响的美国10年期国债收益率自9月18日降息以来已上涨100个基点。

“We think the cutting cycle is done … Our base case has the Fed on an extended hold. But we think the risks for the next move are skewed toward a hike,” BofA analysts said in a note, according to Reuters.

“我们认为降息周期已经结束……我们的基本情况是美联储延长利率不变。但我们认为下一步行动的风险偏向于加息，”据路透社报道，美国银行分析师在一份报告中表示。

ING stated that “The market is right to price in the risk of an extended Fed pause” in light of the recent economic data.

ING 表示，鉴于最近的经济数据，“市场对美联储延长暂停政策风险的定价是正确的”。

“That view will only increase if core inflation comes in at 0.3% month-on-month for a fifth month running next week,” ING said in a note to clients over the weekend.

ING 在周末给客户的一份报告中表示：“只有核心通胀率在下周连续第五个月环比上升 0.3%，这种观点才会增强。”

The December consumer price index report is due out on Jan. 15. Some observers are concerned that base effects could push up both the headline CPI and the core CPI, bolstering the hawkish Fed narrative.

12 月消费者价格指数报告将于 1 月 15 日发布。一些观察人士担心，基数效应可能会推高总体 CPI 和核心 CPI，从而支持美联储的鹰派言论。