隨著主要銀行重新評估聯準會降息預期，比特幣 (BTC) 跌破 9.3 萬美元

比特幣（BTC）以負面情緒開始了新的一周，因為在周五強勁的就業報告之後，主要投資銀行重新評估了對聯準會（Fed）降息的預期。

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below the $93,000 level on Monday as major investment banks reassessed their expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts following Friday's strong jobs report.

比特幣 (BTC) 週一跌破 93,000 美元水平，因主要投資銀行在周五強勁的就業報告後重新評估了對聯準會 (Fed) 降息的預期。

The leading cryptocurrency by market value dropped by 1.6% during the day to trade below $92,800 as of European hours, according to data source CoinDesk. Prices were poised to test the support zone near $92,000, which has acted as a floor since late November.

根據資料來源 CoinDesk 的數據，截至歐洲時段，市值領先的加密貨幣當天下跌 1.6%，交易價格低於 92,800 美元。價格準備測試 92,000 美元附近的支撐區域，該區域自 11 月底以來一直是底部。

The CoinDesk 20 Index, a broader market gauge, was down over 3%, with major coins like XRP, ADA, and DOGE posting bigger losses.

更廣泛的市場指標 CoinDesk 20 指數下跌超過 3%，XRP、ADA 和 DOGE 等主要代幣跌幅更大。

In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.3% lower, indicating an extension of Friday's 1.5% drop that pushed the index to the lowest since early November. The dollar index (DXY) neared 110 for the first time since late 2022, with high Treasury yields supporting further gains.

在傳統市場，與標準普爾 500 指數相關的期貨價格下跌 0.3%，顯示上週五 1.5% 跌幅的延續，導致該指數跌至 11 月初以來的最低水平。美元指數 (DXY) 自 2022 年底以來首次接近 110，美國公債殖利率高企支撐進一步上漲。

Data released Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, the most since March, easily beating expectations for 160,000 job additions and December's previous figure of 212,000. The jobless rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, which was slightly lower than anticipated.

週五公佈的數據顯示，12 月份非農就業人數增加 256,000 人，為 3 月份以來的最大增幅，輕鬆超過預期的新增就業人數 160,000 人和 12 月份之前的數字 212,000。失業率從4.2%下降至4.1%，平均時薪較上月成長0.3%，較去年同期成長3.9%，略低於預期。

The jobs report prompted Goldman Sachs to push out the next interest rate cut to June from March.

就業報告促使高盛將下一次降息時間從 3 月推遲到 6 月。

“Our economists now expect the Fed to cut just twice in 2025 (Jun/Dec vs Mar/Jun/Dec previously), with another rate cut in June 2026,” Goldman's Economic Research note to clients said on Jan. 10.

高盛在1 月10 日給客戶的經濟研究報告中表示：「我們的經濟學家現在預計聯準會將在2025 年僅降息兩次（6 月/12 月vs 之前的3 月/6 月/12 月） ，並在2026 年6 月再次降息。

“If December's FOMC decision marked a material shift back towards inflation in the Fed’s relative weighting of risks, the December jobs report may have completed the pendulum swing. The soft average hourly earnings figure kept the print from sending a more alarming re-heating signal, but the case for cutting to mitigate risks to the labor market has faded into the background,” the note added.

「如果 FOMC 12 月的決定標誌著聯準會相對風險權重轉向通膨的重大轉變，那麼 12 月的就業報告可能已經完成了鐘擺的擺動。疲軟的平均每小時收入數據使報紙無法發出更令人擔憂的重新升溫訊號，但透過削減開支來減輕勞動力市場風險的理由已經逐漸淡出人們的視野，」該報告補充道。

The Fed began cutting rates in September when it officials reduced the benchmark borrowing cost by 50 basis points. The bank delivered quarter-point rate cuts in the following months before pausing in December to signal fewer rate cuts in 2025. BTC has surged over 50% since the first rate cut on Sept. 18, hitting record highs above $108,000 at one point.

聯準會於 9 月開始降息，官員將基準借貸成本降低了 50 個基點。該銀行在接下來的幾個月裡實施了四分之一個百分點的降息，然後在12 月暫停，以暗示2025 年降息幅度會更少。 50%，一度觸及108,000 美元以上的歷史新高。

While Goldman and JPMorgan still expect rate cuts, Bank of America (BofA) fears an extended pause, with risks skewed in favor of a rate hike or renewed tightening. Notably, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, which is influenced by interest rate, growth and inflation expectations, has already risen by 100 basis points since the Sept. 18 rate cut.

儘管高盛和摩根大通仍預期降息，但美國銀行（BofA）擔心降息會延長，風險傾向於升息或重新收緊政策。值得注意的是，受利率、經濟成長和通膨預期影響的美國10年期公債殖利率自9月18日降息以來已上漲100個基點。

“We think the cutting cycle is done … Our base case has the Fed on an extended hold. But we think the risks for the next move are skewed toward a hike,” BofA analysts said in a note, according to Reuters.

「我們認為降息週期已經結束……我們的基本情況是聯準會延長利率不變。但我們認為下一步的風險偏向升息，」據路透社報道，美國銀行分析師在一份報告中表示。

ING stated that “The market is right to price in the risk of an extended Fed pause” in light of the recent economic data.

ING 表示，鑑於最近的經濟數據，「市場對聯準會延長暫停政策風險的定價是正確的」。

“That view will only increase if core inflation comes in at 0.3% month-on-month for a fifth month running next week,” ING said in a note to clients over the weekend.

ING 在周末給客戶的報告中表示：“只有核心通膨率在下週連續第五個月環比上升 0.3%，這種觀點才會增強。”

The December consumer price index report is due out on Jan. 15. Some observers are concerned that base effects could push up both the headline CPI and the core CPI, bolstering the hawkish Fed narrative.

12 月消費者物價指數報告將於 1 月 15 日發布。