比特币（BTC）的性能继续使许多人感到惊讶。这就是为什么它可能已经触底了。

在宏观经济不确定性和收紧流动性时代，比特币（BTC）继续以其表现令许多人感到惊讶。

In an era of macroeconomic uncertainty and tightening liquidity, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to surprise many with its performance.

在宏观经济不确定性和收紧流动性时代，比特币（BTC）继续以其表现令许多人感到惊讶。

Concerns regarding inflation and the global economic state, as well as a Federal Reserve that is still sending mixed signals and in much expected “wait and watch” mode, have done little to keep BTC down. In fact, it has punched through all-time-high levels to sit right now at a price above $84,000 and a market cap well above $1.5 trillion. The big question now is whether this ascent can continue.

对通货膨胀和全球经济状况以及仍在发送混合信号并以“等待和观察”模式的美联储的担忧，并没有做任何事情来阻止BTC。实际上，它已经以历史最高的水平进行了冲击，现在以超过84,000美元的价格和市值高于1.5万亿美元的价格。现在的最大问题是这次上升是否可以继续。

Key Indicators Pointing to Bitcoin’s Bottoming Out

指出比特币底线的关键指标

Sjuul presents a data-based viewpoint, detailing why the present price movement of Bitcoin might signal the conclusion of its bearish cycle. Here are the main points he makes:

Sjuul提出了一个基于数据的观点，详细介绍了为什么比特币的当前价格移动可能标志着其看跌周期的结论。这是他提出的要点：

1. Actualized capital losses reach record highs.

1。实际的资本损失达到了记录高点。

A crucial indicator of market sentiment is the Realized Cap—a metric that accounts for the value of Bitcoin at the price it was last moved. When Bitcoin is traded at a loss, the Realized Cap shows how much of the market is currently underwater. Recently, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap in loss reached an all-time high (ATH) of $410 billion. According to Sjuul, this is significant because it reflects a broad swath of investors who are sitting at a loss, particularly those who bought BTC after its peak in November. Historically, when this metric hits new highs, it signifies the point at which most investors become unwilling to sell at a loss, often marking the capitulation phase.

市场情绪的关键指标是已实现的上限，这是一个指标，该指标以上次移动的价格计算比特币的价值。当比特币亏损时，实现的上限显示了目前在水下的市场。最近，比特币的损失上限达到了4100亿美元的历史最高水平（ATH）。根据Sjuul的说法，这很重要，因为它反映了一大批损失的投资者，尤其是那些在11月达到顶峰后购买BTC的投资者。从历史上看，当这个指标达到新高点时，它表示大多数投资者不愿亏损出售的地步，通常标志着投降阶段。

2. Short-Term Holder (STH) Losses Reflect the Levels of FTX Mishap

2。短期持有人（STH）损失反映了FTX不事的水平

Another indicator pointing toward Bitcoin’s potential bottoming out is the state of Short-Term Holders (STH). Typically, these holders have acquired Bitcoin within the past six months. They often capitulate during the formation of a market bottom. Currently, the unrealized losses for these short-term holders have reached levels that are comparable to those seen during the FTX crash. In fact, after looking at charts of unrealized losses, it seems clear that during the crash of August 2024, unrealized losses among STHs were lower than what we are seeing now. When short-term holders are forced to sell at a loss, it often signals that the bottom is in and the price is about to go back up.

指出比特币潜在底层的另一个指标是短期持有人（STH）的状态。通常，这些持有人在过去六个月内收购了比特币。他们经常在市场底部形成期间屈服。当前，这些短期持有人的未实现损失已达到与FTX崩溃中看到的水平相当的水平。实际上，在查看了未实现的损失图表之后，很明显，在2024年8月的坠机事件中，STH中未实现的损失低于我们现在所看到的。当短期持有人被迫亏本出售时，它通常表明底部是底部，而且价格即将恢复。

3. The Slowdown of Retail Selling

3。零售销售放缓

Even though Bitcoin has declined from its peak of $109,000 to its current price of $84,000, retail investors are not leading the charge in selling. According to data from CryptoQuant, our smaller investors—that’s the term they use—are often referred to as shrimps. These are investors who hold less than 1 Bitcoin. They have been our primary sellers. In fact, on average, these shrimps have been selling about 480 Bitcoin daily. They haven’t been just holding; they have been selling. Meanwhile, our whales—investors holding over 1,000 Bitcoin—have only been selling around 70 Bitcoin per day. This disparity suggests that retail investors are leading the market to a possible capitulation point.

尽管比特币从109,000美元的峰值下降到目前的84,000美元，但散户投资者并没有领导销售费用。根据CryptoQuant的数据，我们的较小投资者（这是他们使用的术语）通常称为虾。这些是持有不到1比特币的投资者。他们一直是我们的主要卖家。实际上，平均而言，这些虾每天售出约480个比特币。他们不只是抱着；他们一直在卖。同时，我们的鲸鱼（持有1000多个比特币的投资者）每天只售出约70个比特币。这种差异表明，散户投资者正在将市场带到可能的投降点。

4. Coinbase Premium is Recovering.

4。CoinbasePremium正在恢复。

Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, has witnessed the revival of its Bitcoin premium after it bottomed out in February. The premium is the price difference of Bitcoin traded on Coinbase versus other exchanges. When the premium starts to rise, it is often seen as a sign that institutional investors are returning to the cryptocurrency market and that demand is rising. This recovery is also reminiscent of a similar pattern seen in Q3 2024 when Bitcoin began to move upward after hitting a bottom. We are also seeing fairly steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds), which also can only serve to increase demand for the asset.

Coinbase是最大的加密货币交易所之一，在2月触底后，其比特币溢价的复兴。溢价是在Coinbase与其他交易所交易的比特币的价格差异。当溢价开始上升时，通常被视为机构投资者正在返回加密货币市场的标志，需求正在上升。这种恢复还让人联想到Q3 2024中比特币在底部下方开始向上移动时看到的类似模式。我们还看到将相当稳定的流入到比特币ETF（交易所交易基金）中，这也只能增加对资产的需求。

5. Whales Are Accumulating Aggressively

5。鲸鱼正在积极积累

Right now, a select number of individuals are amassing vast amounts of supply. Indeed, a current on-chain analysis demonstrates that these individuals have been purchasing and stashing their assets at an aggressive rate.

目前，许多人正在积累大量供应。实际上，当前的链分析表明，这些人一直以积极的速度购买和藏匿其资产。

Maybe the clearest sign of a potential bottom is the behavior of whales, large investors who hold massive amounts of Bitcoin. Smart money typically sells at the top and buys at the bottom. Since Bitcoin’s price fell under $85,000, though, these large players have been on the buying side, accumulating aggressively. In just the past six weeks, they have picked up 100,000 BTC, worth a staggering $8.45 billion. Such accumulation—obviously a sign of confidence on the part of the buyers—is a sign not just of potential bottoming behavior but also of a likely uptrend in the relatively near future.

潜在底层的最明显迹象是鲸鱼的行为，大量投资者拥有大量比特币。聪明的钱通常在顶部出售，并在底部购买。但是，由于比特币的价格下跌低于85,000美元，因此这些大型玩家一直在购买方面，积累了积累。在过去的六周中，他们拿起了100,000 BTC，价值惊人的84.5亿美元。这种积累 - 明显地是买家信心的迹象 - 不仅表明了潜在的底部行为，而且是相对较远的将来的上升趋势。

The Macro uncertainty is at its highest level.

宏观不确定性处于最高水平。

Liquidity is getting drained from the economy, and the FED is still in wait and watch mode.

流动性正在从经济中耗尽，美联储仍处于等待和观看模式。

Yet, BTC is trading above $84,

但是，BTC的交易超过84美元，